The Inevitable Rangers vs Hurricanes Playoff Matchup Is Officially Set

Josh Lavallee. Getty Images.

The cake walk is over boys & girls. After mowing through the lowly Caps in four straight, the playoffs are about to get real with the inevitable matchup vs the Carolina Hurricanes officially official. While I have no doubt the Blueshirts are capable of beating anyone in a 7-game series, there's also no doubt in my mind the biggest threat to their playoff lives resides in Raleigh.

Recent history is on the Rangers side. They won the season series 2-1. Won it last year 3-1. They also ended the Canes playoff run two years ago in a Game 7 under a roof packed with Caniacs. The consistent theme throughout the majority of these contests - Carolina simply couldn't score. Outside of a 6-goal outburst in their lone win this season, they dropped games 2-1 & 1-0. Last year they mustered 9 goals over 4 contests and in their last playoff series vs New York just 13. The breaking point for this organization was last year's ECF sweep at the hands of the Florida Panthers where Brind'Amour's boys dropped 4 straight one-goal games thanks to lighting the lamp a paltry 6 times.

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In comes Jake Guentzel.

Don Waddell finally bit the bullet and took a home run swing at the trade deadline and boy, has it paid off so far. Guentzel's Carolina debut just so happened to be that 1-0 Rangers shutout. Since then though, the Canes averaged 3.65 goals/game over their final 17 tilts (up from 3.31) while the PP improved from 26.3% to 29.4%. That's in large part to Jake piling up 8/17/25 in 16 games with an absurd +16. He's fit in seamlessly with Aho & easily gives them their most potent top line in years, whether it was with Jarvis or now Svechnikov on the other side. Yeah their team numbers were solid before he arrived but Guentzel has clearly given them exactly the offensive boost they believe will finally get them over the hump when the stakes are highest.

This team can get you from anywhere though. Every Canes regular except Kotkaniemi tallied an even-strength point while two of their three fourth-liners (Kuz & Noesen) play on PP2 and racked up 7 goals in their first round series against the Isles. Their back end tallied 49 goals & 199 combined points in the regular season, good for third in the league. Doesn't matter who's on the ice they're capable of contributing offensively. But the Blueshirts are right there with them. They had 10 different goal scorers against the Caps & their defensive corps, although not as balanced as Carolina, actually totaled more points (44G/201P).

A huge wild card for the Rangers in matching up with the Hurricanes top to bottom - the potential return of Filip Chytil.

Chytil unexpectedly started skating in a regular practice jersey about three weeks ago, signaling that health-wise he's ready to go. The kid was sidelined with concussion issues just 10 games into the regular season and, after suffering a recovery setback in January, was ruled out for the rest of the year. Obviously the Blueshirts are playing it as safe as possible with their 24 year-old pivot who opened the year at 2C between Panarin & Lafreniere - but if he's able to jump back in the lineup against as deep of a squad as Carolina it'd be perfect timing. Rempe made sense against the Caps but it's a no-brainer move to sit him if #72 is ready to go (and quite frankly he might sit anyway for the more skilled Brodzinski).

Where he plays, who cares? Maybe they wanna limit his minutes, maintain chemistry and let him center Goody/Vesey while hopping in for Wennberg on PP2. Maybe he runs with Kakko/Cuylle instead while Wennberg slots down. I'd have said they should consider even putting him on the top line wing and parking Roslovic, but Jack had a solid opening series with a point in every game & his speed will be necessary against the pesky Canes. Either way, Chytil's return would be a tremendous boost to their depth in a series where depth will be tested.

Regardless, these teams are about as evenly matched as it gets. Both squads post top-three PP/PK units, crush it at the dot & boast elite goaltending - although anyone in their right mind would take Shesterkin over all. Each side has youth, vets, bangers and skill. When they've faced each other this season, Carolina had the edge in play at 5x5 but that's to be expected. They're one of the best in the league while the Rangers are middle of the pack. Still, it wasn't domination. Shots were 65 a piece at 5x5 and Carolina had two more scoring chances. The gap was a bit wider in high danger chances which gave the Canes the edge. The Rangers shot a mere 4.62% though and that's likely due for positive regression as a team that shot 8.41% over the full year. Carolina shot sub-8% (3rd worst of all playoff teams) which fits their mold. They're obviously skilled but usually rely on quantity over quality. Quantity won't beat Igor Shesterkin.

I'll say this much in favor of the opposition - if you told me this series somehow ends in fewer than 6, which I highly doubt, I'd assume everything clicked for the Hurricanes and they stormed right through. But I'm supremely confident this is gonna be a long one with swings both ways and will end up a coin flip. Carolina opens as slight favorites and I get that. They're the darlings of every analytics model just like they have been for years. A lot of people think they're due. But this is the best iteration of both teams, not just the Canes. All the Blueshirts have done all year is find ways to win. Now they step into this matchup with the best scorer, the best blueliner and the best goaltender along with home ice advantage and an air of confidence knowing they've handled this squad favorably in the past. When Zibanejad is on he's just as good as Aho. A goal along with six helpers - all primaries - in their sweep screams loud and clear he is, in fact, on. That was a big question mark after a subpar regular season offensively. It'll take four of their strongest efforts to move on. It won't be easy and I'm offering no guarantees. Just an objectively fair prediction from a lifelong NYR fan…

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Rangers in 7.

VIVA LA BLUESHIRTS!!!!