Tin Foil Hat Time: I'm Not Ready To Bury The 2015 Baltimore Ravens Yet
(Here lies my last-ditch master plan for saving the Ravens season. It’s an essay and isn’t for the feint of heart.)
I’m completely aware that this team appears fatally flawed. There’s a rash of injuries, the secondary can’t stop the likes of Josh McCown, and they just can’t seem to finish. Week after week they play to the level of their opposition, and then proceed to kick us square in the balls in the last minute. So that brings us to 1-4. Morale is at an all-time low in Baltimore at this point, and the playoffs are a lofty, lofty goal at this point. That’s quite the hole to be in regardless of who you are. But I’m here to tell you something pretty wild. Somehow it’s not over just quite yet. I’m not saying by any means that they’re going to pull it off, and they would need some help, but it can still happen. Hear me out.
The Remaining Schedule
The Ravens have played the 2nd-toughest schedule in the AFC so far, but have the 2nd-easiest schedule remaining. Keep this in mind as I unveil my map to the playoffs:
Weeks 6 and 7: I have my hopes that the Ravens go into San Francisco and win on Sunday, and it’s obviously imperative that they do. They’re certainly capable and I think they will, but they’ve pissed away enough football games to cast some doubt. After that, I fully expect and acknowledge the impending beatdown from Arizona on MNF in 12 days. The entire nation will watch (especially since it’s an off-day for the World Series) and proceed to dance on the Ravens’ grave. That’s fine. It’d be an incredible bonus if they find a way to win that game, but it’d be stupid to expect anything but an L. This would drop them to 2-5, which isn’t as bad as it looks because this is where the going gets good…
Weeks 8-13: This stretch is really where my entire premise lies. This stretch is everything, and is why a 2-5 team somehow might not be six feet under. 5 games plus a bye. 3 at home, 2 on the road. A combined record of 8-16 for these opponents. This is a tremendous opportunity. You can’t just expect a team that has lost games the way the Ravens have to suddenly go on a run, but it’s a decent possibility with this slate. I could easily see 4-1 happening, which brings the Ravens to 6-6. Not as dead anymore.
Weeks 14-17: Okay so let’s say the Ravens do get to 6-6. This final 4 game slate ain’t a picnic at first glance, but it does have 3 home games and a Week 17 game against a Bengals team that may have little to play for (although I highly doubt they lay down for us). I said on twitter yesterday that Week 14 against Seattle on SNF will be the make or break game, and I stand by it. A win seems like a farce now, but it’s a home game and like I said, the Ravens are on a roll and hypothetically playing good football at this point. Maybe they thrive down the stretch here, maybe they don’t. But them being in the picture til the end is a very real possibility.
So there’s the scene.
The Early AFC Playoff Picture
(click to enlarge or just go here)
Okay so that’s a lot of teams. I left out the division leaders in the interest of space, but also because I don’t think anyone is disputing that the Patriots, Bengals, Broncos and (probably) Colts are winning their divisions this year running away. So what you see is what you get, which is still a lotta teams. It’s a logjam, and I expect it to be a logjam til the end. This year has 9-7 wild card teams written all over it. 8-8 doesn’t even seem far-fetched with how top-heavy the division races are. So how many of these teams have what it takes to get to say, 10 wins and stay out of the Ravens’ reach? And how many of these teams truly scare me? Let’s take a look:
Jets/Bills: Let’s be serious here. The only difference between their records is that the Bills (3-2) have taken their Patriots whoopin’ and the Jets (3-1) haven’t. So they’re both essentially 3-2 with a second Pats whoopin to be had. So yeah, 3-3. On top of that, they’re the Jets and the Bills. I do believe in both of their coaches, but I don’t believe in their quarterbacks (sorry T-Mobile). And I certainly don’t believe in either of these team’s abilities to stay out of their own way. One will probably be in the thick of the race at the end, but I highly doubt both will avoid falling out of it. That’s just their nature. Their week 17 showdown in Buffalo is something to keep an eye on though.
Steelers: Full disclosure, the idea of a Steelers team with a healthy Big Ben terrifies me. I think they’re head and shoulders above all these potential wild card teams when he’s in there. But they also have a daunting schedule that may keep them within our reach. On top of that, the Ravens will get their shot at sweeping them later. Otherwise, I’d pencil in the Steelers as the runaway 5-seed and angle the Ravens’ hopes toward the 6 seed. But that’s not the case. Just make up one game in the standings the next 9 weeks, carpe diem in Baltimore week 16, and boom. Just like that, we caught the Steelers.
Chargers: The Chargers are the next closest thing to a scary team in this race. But herein lies another carpe diem situation for the Ravens at home in week 8. Phil Rivers picked apart this Ravens secondary last year in a game that foreshadowed the Ravens recent struggles. Every week is key because the margin of error is now zero, but shutting down Phil Rivers to get a win is paramount because it’d provide all kinds of momentum going into the bye, restore confidence to the secondary that needs it so desperately, and pay dividends in the standings with the added bonus of another H2H tiebreaker.
Raiders/Browns: These teams obviously have potential to fuck us down the stretch having narrowly beaten us before, but they’re both too inexperienced and just aren’t talented enough to stick it out for 17 weeks. If we’re doing what we need to do to catch the other teams above us, these teams should be in the rearview. Plus see above regarding Jets/Bills regarding their nature and whatnot. Just have to make sure the Ravens clean their shit up and don’t drop the game in Cleveland in week 12.
Dolphins/Chiefs: Both came in with playoff aspirations, both fell flat on their face out of the gate like we did. Difference between us and them is the Dolphins have head coach turnover and the Chiefs entire offense just tore his ACL. We merely have a rash of injuries, many of which will be healed up by the time we play each of these teams in Week 13 (MIA) and 15 (KC). Ravens are going nowhere if they don’t scoop those two wins anyway.
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Titans/Texans/Jaguars: This joke of a division will beat up on each other enough to keep themselves out of the race. Only minor possibility is Houston sweeping the other 2 and making a run. Just not seeing it.
There’s your opposition. Not so scary, right? And the best news of all is that the Ravens will get their cracks at the most threatening ones at home. Just need the Jets and/or Bills to do their part and die.
The Talent
The talent isn’t what’s gotten in the way of this football team (okay maybe the WR depth chart has a little, that thing is a joke). It’s the lack of execution at the end of football games. 5 plays that have defined this season:
– Steve Smith drops a game-winning touchdown in Denver that may or may not have glanced off a DB’s fingernail
– Joe Flacco sails an easy TD-ball on 3rd down, and Smith fails to get a 2nd foot in-bounds (resulting in a 3 point lead instead of 7)
– Will Hill picks off a pass against the Raiders that ices a Ravens win, but a defensive holding flag is thrown (which some perceived to be incidental contact, tough call either way)
– AJ Green inexplicably gets left wide open and goes untackled on a long touchdown right after the Ravens take a late 4th quarter lead
– A tight end catches a touchdown with his fucking legs
What’s done is done. 1-4 does define this football team right now. But it would also be moronic to use 1-4 as a basis for their performance moving forward. A small portion of 1-4 has been bad luck, but the lion’s share has just been bad football. The encouraging part is that it hasn’t been bad football that can’t be repaired. I don’t bring those plays back up to tear scars back open. I bring them up to show you that the Ravens season could easily be in a very different place right now. Shit I think we’ve even dropped a couple of easy pick-6’s that would’ve completely changed the narrative of those football games. All of this is worth nothing in the standings, but it should be worth something when it comes to the perception of what the Ravens are capable of. The mistakes are fixable. The Ravens can learn from these losses and move forward a stronger football team. They can learn how to finish games, gain some confidence, and take the bull by the horns and make a run here. I’ve convinced myself this team is only going to get better, partially because it can’t get much worse.
John Harbaugh is one of the best teachers and motivators in football. He’s been too good for too long in Baltimore for me to do anything but believe in him. Even with these coordinators, it’s hard for me to write the Ravens off completely when they’ve got Harbs at the helm. The schedule doesn’t scare me, the opposition in the wild card race doesn’t scare me, and this football team is still stacked with talent. It might look worse before it gets better, but I’m ready to go down swinging. If you don’t want to join me and just want to spend your Fall reading mock drafts, so be it. Let me know what life as a Skins fan is like. Banks never says die. I’m going down with the ship until the very end*.
*Lose on Sunday and we’re on to the draft.