How Adam Thielen And The Panthers' Other Splashy Free-Agent Moves May Impact Their QB Decision With The 1st Overall Pick
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You might balk at the term "splashy" when it comes to former Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen, along with the other free-agent acquisitions the Carolina Panthers have made. But make no mistake about it: super-rich owner David Tepper is sparing no expense to get this franchise turned around in Charlotte, and Carolina is doing all it can to maximize its new quarterback's chances for success.
Before you condescend with your shitty comments and dub me Captain Obvious, there are specific vantage points from which you can perceive all these moves, read the tea leaves, and conclude that the Panthers have made up their mind about one of the top quarterback prospects.
Any of the leading guys — CJ Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson or even Will Levis — will benefit from the presence of a veteran like Thielen. He had to grind his way into the NFL as an undrafted free agent. Thielen turns 33 in August, and I suppose it's understandable why many have written him off. The Vikings made it clear they'd be in the market for a younger, perhaps more explosive WR2 opposite superstar Justin Jefferson. Minnesota needed to prioritize upgrading that awful defense, too.
Carolina's young receiver room led by Terrace Marshall Jr., Laviska Shenault and Shi Smith will benefit from Thielen's mentorship. Beyond that, though, he's a legit red zone weapon who, believe it or not, has averaged over 70 catches, 789 yards and 10 TDs per year over the past three seasons. Thielen has hauled in 68.1% of his targets in that span. Even at this relatively advanced stage of his football career, you can't deny the guy is still producing quite well when given the opportunity.
Having someone like Thielen in the tighter throwing windows near the goal line, or as a solid route-runner and back-shoulder guy you can count on is invaluable for a rookie QB. The Panthers didn't skimp on their backfield either, going after ex-Eagle Miles Sanders to give themselves a proven feature back. Hayden Hurst had one fine season in Cincinnati and brings a bigger threat in the passing game at the tight end position than what Carolina has had with Ian Thomas and Tommy Tremble.
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OK but hear me out. Another ex-Bengal. Not trying to be "that guy"…but I love me some Andy Dalton. If you dig into the Red Rifle's performance with the New Orleans Saints in 2022, you'll realize he might actually still have something left in the tank! First-round pick Chris Olave had over 1,000 yards receiving in 15 games, but Dalton had pretty much no one else to throw to other than Alvin Kamara, who's not been quite himself the last two years.
There was enough from what Dalton did in New Orleans to suggest he could be at least a serviceable bridge starter until Carolina's No. 1 overall pick is ready. With all the resources sunk into Frank Reich's new coaching staff loaded with brilliant offensive minds and all the additions to the offense, you get the sense that the Panthers, if anyone, could afford to roll the dice if they like one of the toolsy, higher-upside guys in Richardson or Levis.
Do I have an underlying biased motive to gas up Richardson's chances of going No. 1 overall?
BUT I also just hedged big on Bryce Young, who's now at +275 (tied with Richardson) to go first overall in the latest odds from Barstool Sportsbook. Both Young and Richardson are well back of Ohio State's Stroud (-250). Levis is all the way back at +3000, so barring a miracle, I'll leave him out of the rest of this.
I'm not giving out advice on what to do betting-wise for the draft. This is simply what I've done on my own. But I will say: Get ready for some line movement in the next week or so. Stroud will hit the field for Ohio State's pro day on Wednesday, followed by Young on Thursday. Richardson's showcase isn't until March 30.
Why is all this a big deal? Well, Young didn't throw at the Combine like the other top QBs did. I can almost guarantee you that once he puts on a show, his odds will shorten. Founded or not, you will see shifts in all the lines once more insider reports and leaks come out around these pro days. Lots of them will be smokescreens and misdirects. Others will, in fact, be genuine. Regardless, it's going to be a wildly fluctuating No. 1 pick stock market.
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Let's try to get inside the heads, hearts and minds of Carolina's brass and infer what they might be thinking with the draft only a little over a month away. Now that I've taken plenty of time to set this up with transparent biases included, here's where I'll make a case, from the Panthers' POV, why each signal-caller between Stroud, Young and Richardson makes sense.
CJ Stroud
If you're looking for the best pure passer with traditional size, a plenty good-enough arm and an even-keeled demeanor, Stroud is the guy for you. It makes sense that he's the favorite. Coming from a gimmicky Ohio State offense with an embarrassment of riches makes Stroud a tricky evaluation, but with QB coach Josh McCown already raving about him, you can see how internal discussions would lead them to Stroud being the pick.
That Georgia game was a hell of a final act for Stroud at Ohio State. He torched the best defense in the country and showed the ability to make plays outside the structure of the offense that he'd struggled to display before. Pair that with the rest of Stroud's prolific, historically proficient passing accomplishments, and you get why the Panthers could be leaning this way.
I still can't believe there's a lengthy video of McCown floating around out there on YouTube where he's gushing over Stroud. What a world we live in!
Bryce Young
Not to say that Stroud can't process or get through his progressions, because he can, but the way Young can make lemonade out of lemons is truly special. Other than the diminutive size that gave him no issues en route to dominating the SEC, there aren't many holes to poke in Young's game.
It's clear Young has the weakest arm strength of the top crop of QBs, yet he makes up for it with elite processing, a sixth sense to escape pressure in the pocket, and he can deliver the ball with accuracy from all kinds of arm angles. Having that type of point guard-like distributor might be what Carolina most covets. They can take the risk on Young's dubious durability and diminutive frame and potentially cash in big on someone who can play like a top-10-caliber quarterback as a rookie.
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ESPN's Adam Schefter suggested that Young is the initial target the Panthers sought when they made the move up to No. 1 from the ninth overall pick. But the analogy he uses is a curious one, considering the 49ers didn't wind up drafting Mac Jones after all and went with a toolsier, less-polished prospect in Trey Lance.
Anthony Richardson
Kind of touched on it already to a degree. I'll be honest. It's really hard not to make this blurb into a self-fulfilling prophecy write-up. If you had a +8000 ticket on a guy going No. 1, you'd feel the same way I'm sure. Hope you can understand.
Anyway. All those years McCown played, he was renowned as a vet who could show young field generals the ropes and flatten the learning curve as they adjusted to the NFL game. If there's anyone who can get a raw player like Richardson up to speed fast, it'd be the journeyman McCown, who cycled through so many offensive systems and terminology it'd make anyone's head spin.
Then you factor in how Reich was an ex-NFL QB himself…and at least one Big J Journalist (Peter King) has reported the new Panthers boss is tempted by what he could do to mold Richardson into a superstar:
"I’ve heard the same rumors everyone else has—that Frank Reich loves Florida QB Anthony Richardson. And he may be the pick."
If that means sitting and learning for a bit from McCown, Reich, offensive coordinator Thomas Brown and Dalton, you can sell your fan base on that and, in the big-picture view, perhaps set yourself up for the most upside at contending for Super Bowls.
It's easy to criticize Richardson for who he is as a player now. For someone as green as he is on the gridiron, of course he's inconsistent and will have some NFL growing pains, perhaps more so than Stroud or Young. The underlying implication to Carolina's proactive approach to the offseason transaction wire is they're trying to build a team to win NOW. That awful NFC South division is ripe for the taking. Do they really want to exercise patience in 2023 while Richardson figures it out? Maybe not.
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Here's the issue, or primary dilemma if you like: Quarterbacks with Richardson's physical gifts don't come along often. You know what? In this particular instance, they never do.
Richardson is literally the most special athlete at the quarterback position in NFL Draft history. That doesn't mean he'll be an automatic success. It means his ceiling is so stupid high that you'd be stupid not to entertain him as the first pick even with his inexperience…which deserves a little bit of context. Stumbled upon this today and it gave me a good chuckle:
The Bottom Line
You might know where this is going. It'd be so David Tepper to throw all this guaranteed money around to free agents, implore GM Scott Fitterer to acquire the No. 1 overall pick, and take a BDE swing at the highest-risk, highest-reward QB on the board.
The question is, do you view the highest-risk, highest-reward guy to be Bryce Young, given his slight frame and brainiac football IQ? Or do you view Anthony Richardson as such since he has just one year of starting, yet has so much room for improvement and might have the most intriguing figurative ball of clay for a coaching staff to sculpt in the history of the draft?
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. My better judgment and head say, with all this laid out, that Carolina is indeed leaning toward Bryce Young. Although Bama's offense was gimmicky in its own right as Stroud's was at Ohio State, I'm betting Young will do better on the whiteboard and interviews.
…My heart, however, and the unpredictable history of the NFL Draft, is whispering to me that Anthony Richardson is gonna be the guy when all is said and done. And not only for my money, but for my, uh, reputation as a decent NFL Draft guy, I would take the shot and draft him first.
What do y'all think? Who's your QB1? Who's the best fit in Carolina? Sound off in the comments below and roast me for being way too high on Anthony Richardson if you like. Or join me on AR Island and buy low before he explodes into a dual-threat stud the likes of which football seldom, if ever, will have seen.
Twitter @MattFitz_gerald/TikTok