The Celtics Currently Have The Heat's Season On Life Support And Now It's Time To Finish The Job
Megan Briggs. Getty Images.
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As much as a relief as it may be to be heading back to Boston up 3-1 with a chance to close out the series tomorrow. it's important that all of us, the players included, remember that you do not win playoff series by winning 3 games. Sure it was great to see the Celts go into Miami and whoop that ass in back to back games, a building they have not lost in since Game 3 of the ECF last year. This latest blowout made it 6 straight wins for the Celts on the road in TD Garden South, and if they could somehow find a way to replicate that on their own floor I think we'd all appreciate it.
We all wanted to see how this team would respond after the Game 2 debacle, and what we got was a team that was focused and ready to rise up to the challenge.
You also combine Game 1, the Celts have trailed for a total of 16 seconds in 3 of the 4 games in this series. That is, insane.
And yet, all I care about is whatever the results of Porzingis' MRI tell us about his calf. Is it tightness? Is it a strain? Is it Grade I or Grade II? As we know, he's the X factor to everything, so I'd say his status is rather important. It's also another reason why wrapping this series up tomorrow night is crucial. Let everyone rest after going through a series involving dirty play after dirty play from the Heat. Just put these guys to bed one and for all and move on.
The baseline for this trip was a split. They achieved that in Game 3. The actual goal was to take both, which they did in Game 4. We talk a lot about how championship caliber teams don't play with their food and step on throats, well that's exactly what we just saw the Celtics do.
Let's dive in
The Good
- Over the course of a playoff run, there are going to be times where you need the "others" to step up and steal you a game. The stars are always the most important, but in a 7 game series there's usually around 1 or 2 games where the "others" go out and win you that game. Shaq talks about it all the time. The stars are good for 2 or 3 wins, and they just need the supporting cast to show up for 1 win. Get that win and let the stars do the rest.
Well, last night was that night for Derrick White. Not just with his best game as a Celtic, it was the best game of his life
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I don't care how old you are and what generation of Celtics basketball you grew up watching. I don't care if you were around for the Bird years. None of us have ever seen a Boston Celtic do what Derrick White did last night in a playoff game. Ever. Doesn't matter the year, doesn't matter the playoff series, doesn't matter the player.
That, is some truly special stuff.
And who does Derrick credit for such a big time performance/season?
Oh, weird! Do people understand yet? All that bitching that Joe Mazzulla should be fired after the Celts lose a single game at any point in this season or that he's a moron who doesn't know what he's doing. It's all so embarrassing when all you have to do is listen to the players.
The reality is, Derrick's been tremendous this entire series. While last night was the apex, let's not forget he's averaging 21.8/3.3/3.5 on 56.9/47.1% splits with 4.0 3PM a night and only 1.3 TOs. He's not just destroying the Heat offensively, he's bringing the heat (no pun intended but intended) on the other end of the floor as well
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When you watch him play it's pretty drastic what a difference it makes when he plays with confidence and is aggressive. What we saw in Game 2 was to Aggressive Derrick, and it just so happens to be the only game the Celts have dropped in this series. When he is engaged and doesn't even consider hesitating offensively, he morphs into an unstoppable offensive force. There's simply nothing he can't do. He can beat you with pull up threes off the dribble, he can get into the paint for the floater, he can finish strong at the rim, he can bury C&S 3PA. There's a reason Joe has given him the "ultimate green light" as he told us last night, and it's because nights like last night are possible as long as he remains confident and remembers he has the freedom to do whatever the hell he wants.
In looking at his shot chart, it's the perfect type of balance you want to see against a MIA defense, to the point where nothing they tried worked. Couldn't go zone, couldn't guard him in man/switch. It was the perfect balance of an inside/outside approach
- Listen, if everyone is going to get on their soapbox and scream about how terrible Joe Mazzulla is and how Spo is coaching circles around him when they lose, well then keep that same fucking energy when they win in dominant fashion. The Celts were prepared and ready for whatever wrinkle the Heat threw at them defensively, they adjusted and took away their 3PA, allowing only 11 wide open 3PA last night after only 13 in Game 3. His timeout usage has been PERFECT this entire series in terms of understanding what the moment needed.
Yes, the talent disparity is big. So what? The same way everyone shares blame in the Game 2 loss, the same is true for the wins. The talent didn't even really play all that well last night and they were still dominant. How does that happen? The coach has everyone ready to go and his adjustments work.
Of course, this is how it generally works. Everyone who was screaming about Joe after Game 2 is quiet until their next loss, in which it'll be back to being time to fire Joe etc etc. I really do not understand why people are so weird about a guy who is clearly showing he's not only capable, but the players LOVE playing under. This is exactly what everyone should want! Instead, you have weirdos still crying for Ime after any Celtics loss. It's very bizarre.
- The key to beating the Heat in a playoff game/series remains pretty simple. Take care of the ball and make your open 3s. We saw what the low TOs and low points off TOs combined with the 3pt shooting did in Game 3, and it was more of the same in Game 4.
Only 10 TOs (a great number) and only 10 points off TOs (another great number) is exactly how you do it. Celts shot 44% (5-13) on their "wide open" 3PA and 40% on their "open" 3PA (8-20). Taking care of the ball and making your open 3s. That's all you have to do.
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If you aren't allowing the Heat to score in transition and get easy looks, instead forcing them to beat you in the half-court, their offense simply can't produce the necessary points to beat you, especially if you are taking away their 3s.
It's no surprise that in the one game the Celts lost, they allowed 20 points off TOs which helped give them enough confidence to shoot 53% from deep. It's all tied together. The way you beat the Heat black magic is to simply not play into it. If you do that, they are powerless.
- Jayson Tatum did not shoot the ball well (5-14, 2-6) but overall I felt like he played pretty well. As always you could tell he was engaged by his rebounding total (11) which led the team, he was 2nd in AST with 5 and only turned the ball over once in his 37 minutes
while also being engaged defensively. While it would be nice if at some point his shooting came around, what's encouraging is that Tatum is not letting his poor shooting impact the rest of his game or his effort level. That's often what we would see in his younger years, but now we're seeing him still find way to make a positive impact. At some point his shots will drop, and then we're really cooking with gas, but in the meantime, I am very pleased with how he's looked for the most part in this series.
The fact that the Celts can blow a team out with Tatum only taking 14 shots is nice, but it should be the exception and not the rule. Tatum is a rhythm player, and between the long layoffs in between games and the way he tends to be used to start games, it's pretty obvious he hasn't caught his rhythm yet. Now with Porzingis out, I'd like to see Tatum's FGA be up closer to the 20s, as long as it doesn't come by forcing things offensively. While there's something to be said about Tatum's ability to read the game and give it what it needs at any given moment, he's also the best player. It's time to make sure he has the touches/shots in order to catch his rhythm because this team doesn't win a title without it.
- Everything about Al Horford continues to be incredible
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Big shots when they needed it, great work on the glass, and more importantly he was there for his guy when Bam tried his typical Bam shit
I'd say Al's role is now even more important given KP's injury, and on some level that has me a tad concerned. Not that he can't step up, but the fact that we're back to needing to ask even more of Al at this stage. I worry about burnout, I worry about the defensive rebounding late, I worry about injury, all that stuff. It's another reason why the Celts have to end this shit on Wednesday. Let Al Horford rest.
- Holding a team to under 90 points on their home floor in back to back games and under 95 points in 3 of the 4 games is legitimately insane. That should not be possible in 2024, regardless of what the other team looks like. 90 points? The worst offenses in the league are able to get 90 points in a 48 minute NBA game.
When this team truly locks in defensively and goes up a level, they are as devastating to score on as it gets.
The Bad
- If anything, these last two wins have made me even more annoyed with what happened from behind the arc in Game 2. I can't help it. This is such bullshit
GM1: 32%
GM2: 53%
GM3: 32%
GM4: 27%
All the Celts had to do was play with an ounce of effort defensively in that game and this is a sweep. All the Heat had to do was not have the greatest shooting performance in their franchise's history, and this was a sweep. They shot 65% on wide open looks in that Game 2, and have been under 30% ever since. It's all so annoying.
I'll tell you this much. The Celts better not fuck around in Game 5 and let another Heat black magic performance transpire. It's very obvious what happens in this matchup when you take away the Heat's 3s.
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- As great as this team may be defensively in this series, the offense is a different story completely. Barely breaking 100 in back to back games is what I would call "not great", and in their last 3 games the Celts offense has a pretty terrible 112.5 ORTG. Where things have really struggled is in the second half, where for the entire series the Celts only have a 107.6 ORTG.
This matters of course because now the Celts will be forced to operate offensively without KP, and we've seen in previous years what that tends to mean. For the life of me I could not understand why after KP went out and the Heat went to their zone, there wasn't a single possession where anyone was at the nail. Time and time again the Celts tried to attack the zone by driving, which is not how you do it. You have to get it to the nail and then let that player make a decision to either attack the rim or swing the ball to the weakside for an open 3.
If you need some positive spin, the Celts offense in this series has a 121 ORTG when Porzingis is off the floor. Obviously lineups and rotations play into that, but it is possible fo this team to produce offensively even without KP. My fear is that without him once the Heat go to their zone, we start to see all of the bad habits of the 2023 ECF. That's the concern.
- I also can't help but be a little nervous about what this now means in terms of everyone having to go up a spot in the offensive pecking order. For example, the benefit of Jrue Holiday was that he was the 5th scoring option, so whatever he gave you didn't really matter as long as he played defense and created for others.
That's no longer the case. His offense is now extremely important, and this is how he's started his Celts playoff career
Without the KP security blanket and the struggles by the Jays recently, at some point Holiday is going to have to give this team something offensively in an efficient manner. This is a guy who shot 48/43% during the season, and while I know Bucks fans told us he was a playoff dropper offensively, it cannot be this bad now with KP out.
Holiday did make a big corner 3 late and I thought he was much better around the rim early, but 31/33% splits isn't going to cut it. It wasn't acceptable for the guards before him, and it's not acceptable for him either given how much of a better player he is.
- I'd say I'm shocked with the Bam dirty landing space play
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but how could you be? This is just another example of #HeatCulture. No different from the Caleb Martin play, this is what they do. They pull shady shit under the guise of plausible deniability when in realty it's dirty as hell.
I don't care that Bam tried to contest Tatum's shot. That's fine. It's entirely possible to contest an after the whistle shot while also not stepping forward into his landing space. Had Bam done that, there's no issue. But he didn't. He knew what he was doing and it's these little moments like this that the Heat need to rely on. Whether it's taking out Giannis, or sliding under Tatum's ankle in Game 7, or what Martin and Bam both did to Tatum in this series, it is what it is at this point and it's another reason why you cannot let this extend past 5 games.
- Apparently SVG was a real dickhead on the broadcast for those who couldn't watch the local feed. Yet another example of why Adam Silver is the worst. Every Celtics fan should be able to listen to Mike Gorman call his final games, and instead they were subjected to a disasterclass performance by SVG. Blaming Tatum for that play? What an asshole.
- This is now the second time in 4 games the Celts have gotten absolutely nothing from Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser offensively. Maybe this just isn't a series for Pritchard, because this was arguably the worst we've seen him play all season. With Porzingis out it's even more important that these guys step up their production off the bench, and a 0-6 (0-3) showing is not going to cut it.
The Ugly
- While his final line doesn't look so bad and he was a +17 in his minutes, personally I hated how Jaylen played in this game. Considering I am not someone who has this weird hate boner towards Jaylen, if I'm saying it then you know he actually played like ass.
I just didn't like what I saw from a decision making standpoint, a ball security standpoint (6 TOs), and an execution standpoint (7-18). Basically to me what we got from Jaylen last night was a 2023 ECF performance, and that's exactly what cannot happen. If he's going to be aggressive and get to the rim, I need him to finish and not miss 4-6 layups. I need him to understand that now without KP, everyone is going to be digging in harder on his drives and reaching, similar to what we saw last year.
You tell me, do these look familiar to you?
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While overall Jaylen's efficiency has been mostly fine in this series (50/38%) and this was his first real stinker shooting the ball, the more important part of Jaylen's game will always be his decision making. Not playing with blinders offensively, not driving into traffic, taking care of the ball etc.
That's the stuff that hasn't been as good as it needs to be despite the efficient shooting, and it's the concern moving forward in a KP-less world. Jaylen's margin for error drops a little bit, because we cannot be relying on 38 points from Derrick White. The stars need to play like stars, and that starts with Jaylen.
Hey, maybe this was just his one stinker of the series and it'll be no big deal. That's fine and good, but I care about habits moving forward. The Game 4 version we saw from Jaylen is a version that is simply not good enough for the Celts to achieve what we all want them to achieve.
So now we wait. My entire day will now be consumed over KPs MRI results and praying this team handles their business in Game 5. We saw the Wolves do it, we saw the Thunder do it, we saw the Nuggets do it last night. The Celts did what they had to do to put the Heat's season on life support, and now they need to finish the job.