So What The Fuck Is Going On With The Celtics Defense
The easy answer? It stinks. Stinks out loud. I touched on this briefly in the postgame blog after the Spurs loss, but I wanted to take some time and really look at what the hell is going on with the Celtics on this end of the floor. As a reminder, since their winning streak ended on 12/15, the Celtics have the 25th ranked defense with a 113.2 rating, are giving up over 113 points a night which is 7 full points higher than their season average, and they’ve given up 120 points at least 3 times. Earlier in the season the worry was about their bottom 5 offense, but during this stretch their offense has been fine, ranked 12th in the league with a 110 rating and on the season they sit owners of the 10th best offense in the NBA. The offense isn’t really the issue here. The issue is that their calling card, elite level defense, is nowhere to be found. It’s easy to say “well they don’t have Aron Baynes so that explains it”, but honestly it goes deeper than that.
If the Celtics want to get to where we all think they should by the end of the year, it starts on the defensive end. So let’s tackle this issue by issue to see what the hell is going on and how it could maybe be fixed
The loss of Aron Baynes
We may as well start here, because this is where I imagine a lot of people are going to look. While it’s true that the absence of Baynes does matter to this team’s defense, let’s not pretend like before he got hurt, that Baynes was all that solid on that end. Of this 8 game stretch Baynes played in 2 games (1 game really since he played just 2 minutes against PHX), and had a 111 Drtg. That’s a pretty drastic difference from his 97.3 Drtg on the season. So this idea that the Celtics are regressing just because Baynes isn’t in the lineup isn’t really true. It started to stink even when he played.
In that loss to Detoit, it’s true he did a decent job on both Pistons bigs, holding both Blake and Drummond to a combined 3-10. So while both ended up crushing the Celtics, the problem of that loss was more about their perimeter defense, which we’re going to see be a reoccurring theme here. There’s no denying his overall impact, as the Celtics are drastically better defensively when he’s on the floor (97 rating vs 105), but if you look at their recent losses, how much of it has been them getting killed by an opposing big? The Spurs loss for sure, the Suns loss with Ayton, but other than that this team has shown an ability to defend without Baynes before. I don’t really think that should let everyone else off the hook for what we’ve seen on that end.
Where the hell is the guard defense
One of the strengths of this team was supposed to be their perimeter defense. The size and versatility of their depth was supposed to be an asset for this team. So far this season, it’s been inconsistent at best. Really outside of Kyrie, every guard on this roster has been up and down. That may sound crazy because narrative suggests that Marcus Smart is a great defender, but look the numbers don’t lie. Over these last 8 games, here are the ratings of the guards on this roster
Terry Rozier: 120 (opponent FG% of 47/38%)
Jaylen Brown: 116.8 (opponent FG% of 47/33%)
Marcus Smart: 111 (opponent FG% of 46/32%)
Kyrie Irving: 106 (opponent FG% of 44/31%)
I see one acceptable rating. Just like the last time we saw this team struggle defensively, it was the perimeter defense that was the biggest culprit. You remember those days of Kemba and Trey Burke going crazy right? Well we’re seeing the same shit happen again. Guys are either not fighting through screens or going under them, losing their man by watching the ball, bsaically they’re providing no resistance on the perimeter which is fucking everything up
Here are some video examples of what I mean
The truth is this team will not be an elite level defense with this sort of production coming from every guard on their roster. I feel bad lumping Kyrie in there because for the most part he’s been solid despite a rough game against SA, but I’m look at your Terry, Jaylen and Marcus. We know what they are capable of on that end, and the reality is they haven’t brought it on that end.
Are we sure Jayson Tatum knows how to defend players coming off screens
Defense is mostly about effort, and I’m not sure Tatum’s defensive effort has always been there. It seems like teams realize if you run him off screens, he’s always going to be a step behind. Shit like this
Tatum’s defense has regressed a little this season, his Drtg is up to 105 from 103 last year, and he held opponents to 43/28% splits. This season those splits are up to 44/31%, and over this stretch those numbers are 45/37%. It’s safe to say he has really struggled at defending his position over the last few weeks, and for me it’s mostly an effort thing with him. He’s finding himself out of position time and time again, with bad angles because it seems like he’s half assing it when his player doesn’t have the ball.
Rebounding, kinda important
When you’re struggling defensively, one of the worst things you can do is suck dick on the glass. Giving up easy second chance points, giving guys second and sometimes third chances, that’s the kind of shit the Basketball Gods burn you for. Yes, this is another area where not having Baynes hurts, but barely. While on the floor this team has a 73.8% DREB%, when he’s off the floor its 73.4%. Not that big a difference
Over these last 8 games, the Celtics are 29th in DREB% at just 69.2%. As a reminder, there are only 30 teams in the NBA. Opponents are snagging 11.5 OREB a night, which is the 5th most in the league during this timeframe. Their opponents OREB% of 26.5% is the 9th highest in the league. We know the success of this team comes down to their ability to defend and rebound, so who is at all surprised that they are struggling in both of these areas and the results have been pretty brutal.
Brad isn’t pulling Hayward despite brutal defense
I get things need to take time, but with a second unit of Terry/Jaylen/Theis there are enough defensive holes. For whatever reason, despite his 111 rating and 47/39% opponent splits, we aren’t seeing Brad take Hayward out for poor defense like he does with other guys like Terry and Jaylen. I know they want to give Hayward every chance to succeed, but if he’s not getting it done you HAVE to make an adjustment. Leaving him out there when he’s getting cooked defensively while also not giving you much offensively is how you get unneeded drama. If he stinks, sit him, just like everyone else.
Daniel Theis is taking a gigantic step backwards defensively
I’m going to assume he’s healthy, and if that’s the case then the results are a pretty big deal. Of the regular rotation players, only Terry Rozier has a worse Drtg than Theis’ 120 over these last 8 games. That same sort of lockdown defense from him just hasn’t been there, and he’s getting completely bodied by opposing bigs. Opponents are shooting 52/44% splits against Theis, and given the fact that these Celtics are shorthanded, that’s a gigantic issue. This is a guy that had a 100 Drtg last year, and we haven’t seen him be all that close to that level so far this season.
The problem with Theis is he doesn’t really force any opposing big off their spot. He loves to reach and is basically a walking foul every time he is asked to defend someone. The Celtics are 23rd in the NBA in foul rate on the season which isn’t great, and over this stretch that has ballooned to 28th. They simply cannot defend without fouling, and a lot of that has to do with Theis’ expanded role.
I’m tempted to say the same thing about Horford, but his defensive metrics actually haven’t been too bad. He has the lowest Drtg on the team during this stretch at 102.3 and opponents are shooting 43/31%. His biggest problem is clearly his rebounding, but from a defensive standpoint he’s been about what you would expect. It’s the reserve bigs that have really let this team down.
I thought it was pretty telling a few weeks ago when Marcus Smart said teams weren’t afraid to play the Celtics. I’m getting that same sort of feeling now. Defensively they aren’t imposing their will on teams, they’re lazy fighting through screens, and overall they look soft. Why would a team not look at this team right now and start foaming at the mouth with excitement? They haven’t been able to stop a nosebleed for over two weeks. Sure the offense looks better but what good does that do you if you’re giving up 35 and 46 point quarters?
Advertisement
It’s imperative that this team figure this shit out and get back to defending at a high level, because teams like MIL/TOR/IND sure as shit do. We know their offense is streaky, but the one thing we were supposed to be able to rely on was their defense. That’s gone missing and it hasn’t mattered if it was against a good team or one of the worst in the league. Until they sort out that end of the floor, the Celtics are going to remain inconsistent at best.