Key Areas The Celtics Need To Focus On In Their Big Test Tonight Against Indiana
We all remember what happened when the Celtics played the Pacers in early November. It’s the only matchup so far this season between the two, and it was the first of what would be a pretty terrible road trip early in the season. With the Celtics up by 2 with 10 seconds left, Kyrie missed this layup
which ultimately led to this Oladipo game winner
Not ideal. Since this moment, the two teams have sort of gone in separate directions. The Celtics are 18-12 and the 5 seed since this game while the Pacers are an impressive 20-10 and currently sit in the 3rd spot in the East. Tonight’s matchup gives us a battle of the 2nd overall defense (IND) vs the 3rd overall defense (BOS), and two teams that both have top 3 net ratings. Now the Pacers are playing on the second night of a B2B and the Celtics are rested, so there really is no excuse from the Celtics side, they should be ready and motivated for this big regular season test.
You see if the Celts want to start climbing up the standings in the East, they have to start beating these good teams ahead of them. They’ve shown to play much better as of late, but nobody is throwing a parade for beating teams like PHI/MEM/MIN/DAL/BKN. If you look at their last three tests against good competition during this stretch, things haven’t been great. Losses to MIL/HOU/SA in between all these wins certainly leaves more to be desired, so the Pacers are the next good litmus test to see just how much better this Celtics team may be. So as we prepare for what should be an awesome showdown tonight, I wanted to look back and see if there was anything we could learn from the first time these two played that might be helpful tonight. As I write this it sounds like Myles Turner is doubtful to play, so that’s pretty big and this is where I netted out.
Do not rely on the three point shot again
In the first meeting, the Celtics made 19 3PM, sounds great right? Well when you realize that 46 of their 88 FGA were threes, it takes you back to a time when this team loved nothing more than settling for bad threes and not moving the ball. They had just 23 assists in this game, and as a result of their lack of aggression towards to rim they got demolished in the FTA department 25-9. Looking up and down the roster, this team could not stop jacking it from deep. Kyrie took 12 FGA and 7 of them were threes, Tatum took 11 FGA and 8 of them were threes, Terry took 5 FGA and 4 of them were threes, Smart took 7 FGA and 4 of them were threes, then Baynes (who is out tonight) took 3 FGA and all of them were threes. You see the trend.
The biggest reason they lost this game was because on one end the Celts wouldn’t stop taking these poor shots from 26 ft, and then on the other end the Pacers got nothing but layups. If the Celtics are going to win this game tonight they simply have to be more balanced with their offensive approach. This Pacers defense is no joke, and with Turner potentially out of the lineup they have to maintain what we’ve seen lately and play inside out. You have an open three as a result of good ball movement, take it. Anything else, they need to be attacking the rim at a much higher rate than the last time.
Hayward has to win the Tyreke Evans matchup
This was a problem in the first meeting for Gordon, and I get it, it was in the first few weeks of his season, so now that he’s playing much better he cannot have the same type of performance when it comes to matching up with Evans. On one side Hayward went 2-10 which stunk, but then defensively Evans ate him up to the tune of 12 points on 5-6 shooting. This was where we got our first real look at how opponents are treating Hayward, where Evans simply put his head down and drove right at him. Now that Hayward’s defense has looked much better as of late, they need him to be able to contain a guy that is pretty one dimensional. He wants to use his size to body you down and finish at the rim. How Hayward defends that matchup is going to be a huge factor in this game in my opinion.
For the love of God, play good P&R defense
Start mentally preparing yourself now. Oladipo and Sabonis are going to P&R this team to death. To counter that, I’m looking at you Al Horford and Marcus Smart. Smart has to fight through screens consistently and Horford has to figure out a way to both shut off Oladipo from driving but also making sure not to lose his roll man. Weak side rotations are going to be huge and there quite a bit of evidence out there that this is how the Pacers get Oladipo going. He is so good at splitting defenders and going downhill, so whether it’s Kyrie or Smart or whoever they cannot be lazy going under screens or anything like that
This is where I’m a little nervous about guys like Tatum or Jaylen, who at times can fall asleep defensively. They need to make sure to cover for Horford consistently as soon as he rotates to stop the ball, and something tells me this will be a deciding factor.
Force Bogdanovic off the three point line
He’s the best shooter of this team and gave the Celts fits in their first meeting. Be prepared for a lot of drive and kick between him and Oladipo, and I think it goes without saying that the pressure is on Tatum here. He’s certainly not more athletic, but he is smart and crafty. I could see Tatum being tempted to bite on pump fakes and things of that nature, but if the Celtics are going to pull this out, they need to not only force Bogdanovic off the three point line, but they also need to make him work for his buckets. Bogdanovic shoots 47.9% on “open” looks and 46.9% on “wide open” looks. Being disciplined when it comes to contesting and defending him is going to be crucial.
Be ready to help Marcus Morris defensively
Chances are he’s going to get the Thad Young matchup. That’s a tough one for him because Young is such a physical player, and he not only does it on the block but has also added the ability to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim to his game. A high energy player he’s going to be active on the offensive glass, and this all means that guys need to be ready to help. I don’t think we’ll see Brad send double teams if it means leaving IND shooters open, but this is definitely a matchup to keep an eye on. Mentally prepare for a big OREB and putback late, because I can guarantee that’s going to happen.
The Pacers had 17 second chance points in their first meeting, and even without Turner in the lineup, Sabonis/Young is going to be a handful.
Play fast
Not really the Celtics M.O. as they rank 19th in pace, but what we know for sure is that the Pacers do not want to run. They want to slow this game down and play in the halfcourt. Owners of the 25th fastest pace in the NBA, this was one area where the Celtics had the advantage in the first meeting. They had nearly twice the fast break points as the Pacers, and if you assume that they will be able to get stops because of how good they are defensively, they need to get out and run. Get Tatum in transition, get Jaylen some easy looks in the open court where you don’t ask him to pass, keep your head up and run run run.
Whatever you do, force Sabonis to beat you outside of the paint
As awesome as Sabonis is, he is a bit limited offensively. He’s taken 363 FGA this year and 327 them are at the rim where he shoots 66.0%. So how do you stop him? Clog the paint and make him beat you from literally anywhere else. Evidence shows that’s going to be pretty hard for him
Advertisement
Move the ball
This goes without saying. Celts get past that 67% number and it’s pretty much a guaranteed win.
It’s no secret, the Celtics are going to have to play one of their best games of the season to pull this out. Just because you don’t hear much about the Pacers please do not get it twisted, they are really really really good. They have one of the best clutch players in the league in Oladipo, who is 2nd in the NBA in clutch points trailing only Kemba, and in these situations he has 63/60% splits. You find yourself in a close game, you can almost bank on the fact that Oladipo will come through. What makes this interesting, is Kyrie Irving isn’t too far behind, ranking 4th in clutch points with 49/33% splits. We saw how the first game ended, let’s try and not have a repeat of that tonight please.
The Celtics need this win to even up the all important H2H matchup, because lord knows seeding come the Spring is going to be wild. Buckle up.