Trilly Grades Your Rebuild: Chicago Bulls Edition
Welcome back,
Today I’ll be looking at the Bulls. You can find past entries here but I’ll warn you now, there’s only one.
The rules are the same: I’m going to be taking a look at three things they did well, three things they failed miserably at and three things they could do this summer to stop stinking. I’ll be issuing one of two grades based on my findings: Oh hell yeah (good) or Oh no (bad). This is the internet, things are classic or trash with no in between. You wouldn’t expect nuance on Twitter so please do not expect it here. Thank you.
Chicago Bulls (19-51, 13th seed Eastern Conference)
Good Things
1. Legit young talent
Lauri Markannen, Wendell Carter Jr. and whomstever they draft this June are 21 or younger. Otto Porter and Zach Lavine are the “old” young guys on second contracts, and they’re both 25 or under. Even the “maybe this guy is a piece??” guys like CPF Chandler “The Hutch Man” Hutchinson, Ryan “My name should just be Archie Diacono” Arcidiacono and Shaquille “My name is Shaquille and thus I do not need a nickname” Harrison are all young and cheap. With the Grizzlies yesterday, I mentioned that JJJ doesn’t have any potential running mates currently. He’d kill for another piece like Lauri, Lavine or Cristiano Felicio. The Bulls have all three under cost control. In Felicio’s case, the cost is HIGH.
2. Creativity with the salary cap
Last summer, the Bulls signed Jabari Parker to a 2 year/$40 million dollar deal with the second year being a team option. A decent bet that Jabari comes home and puts on good numbers on a bad team. It did not work. They could have just eaten a bad deal, but they made a smart move. They packaged Jabari and CPF Bobby Portis, who’s up for a new deal this summer the Bulls probably didn’t want to pay, and sent them to Washington for Otto Porter. Porter gets a bad rep for his contract but he’s looked very good in Chicago. It’s a steep price, but the Bulls are young and mostly cheap. They can pay the 2.5-year re-agency premium (more on this later) to see if Otto Porter is worth building with.
3. Lavine might be a star
He’s awful defensively, he’s not a real™ point guard and he’s putting up good counting numbers on an awful team so they who cares? Good, glad we got that out of the way.
Having said that, I think Lavine might be real close to becoming a star. Not a max player. Not a MVP caliber player or “superstar”, but a nice All-Star caliber on what’s looking like a steal of a contract (4 years/$78 million, a shade under that Olivier Vernon money). He’s an elite athlete, he can handle the ball, get to the rim, finish at/above the rim, get to the line, create for himself/others and shoot threes at a good percentage. Those are the things he does well and you’ll notice that many of them are in style for this current NBA, particularly the getting to the line and shooting threes part.
Lavine has the 11th highest usage rate in the league but his efficiency isn’t suffering. He’s shooting a respectable 47/37/83 from the field/3P/FT line on a good number of attempts from each. He’s a good shooter that could be a great one if he took better shots. It’s easy to say everyone should just match James Harden’s style of play and only shooting 3’s or free throws….but that shit is productive as hell. And there are very few who could even consider approaching his style of play while shooting efficiently. I think Lavine MIGHT could be one of them.
He’s shooting around 5 three-pointers a game and 6 free throws a game. Solid, but nothing to write home about. Marvin Williams takes more 3’s a game and Lou Williams shoots more FT’s a game. Lavine is really good at both, he just doesn’t do either enough. His 3 point attempt rate (3PAr) and free throw rate (FTr) match what we see on the court. Lavine’s 3PAr is 28.2 and his FTr is 32.5, so about 28% of his FG attempts come from 3P range and he’s getting to the line on around a third of his attempts. For reference, Harden is attempting threes on 54.4% of his shots and getting to the line on around 46%. Again, this matches what we see as Harden is living at the line or hoisting threes. Harden only takes 6% of his shots from 3-16 feet, the best shot in the game for MY money. Lavine is taking 20% of his shots from 3-16 feet. That’s the issue. Way too many shots in no man’s land to reach his ceiling as an offensive player. Lavine shoots a better percentage than Harden under the basket (65% to 60) as well as from 3P (37% to 36%). Of course, Harden’s efficiency probably suffers because he launches so many treys and takes so many fouls but the point stands. If Lavine cuts the midrange out and either picks up the 3PAr or the FTr, his points could take a leap. If he picks up on both and skillwise he certainly can, he’s looking at All-star status.
Position wise, ESPN has him listed as a PG on his profile but as a SG on the depth chart. Basketball Reference lists him as a guard but estimates he’s spent about 55% of his time at SF. What position you call him doesn’t matter, what position he defends does though. I think I’ve made some progress in the field of Guard Defense. I hypothesize that your guard defense only matters if your guard can only guard other guards. Which doesn’t matter here because Lavine can’t defend anybody….yet. But he’s 24 and I’m not sure he’s had a good coach or point guard yet. Indiana, Boston, and Philadelphia are all top 10 defenses this season and he’s given them each 30+ points (Philly got it twice, hate to see it) on a combined 57/44/80 shooting. He can get a bucket on just about anybody. Kyrie got a shoe and a commercial for that and he didn’t start trying on defense consistently until it was time for his third contract. Give Lavine some time.
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Bad Things
1. What is Kris Dunn?
Husband? Maybe. Brother? Probably. Nice guy? I’m certain of it. Good NBA player? Well, it’s hard to say….and despite what you’ve heard, there are a LOT of good NBA players.
I think we’ve seen time and time again that it takes some point guards time to develop Lowry, Kemba, D’Angelo come to mind. Russ was pretty good right away but is miles away from what he’d eventually become, same for Harden. Dunn’s not awful at anything but he doesn’t really stand out much either. It’s only year 3 for him and there might be a solid player there, but I’m not sure the Bulls are willing to wait it out. In the short term, they may have a little cap space to improve the PG position and longterm they may be in a position to draft their next PG this June. They have talented young bigs and wings that would benefit greatly from a good PG. I’m not all the way out on Dunn but he’s older as a prospect and didn’t have the immediate impact you’d hope an older prospect would. The defense also hasn’t lived up to his college reputation and the jumper is still uninspiring. He turns 25 this week so I imagine there are some nice Senior Citizen leagues he can get involved with.
2. They’re not really good at anything
As a team, they don’t rank higher than 20th in any of the following: assist rate (25th), turnover rate (21st), rebounding rate (27th) or TS% (27th). They’re 11-24 on the road and 8-27 at home. They’re 27th in 3PAr and 28th in FTr. Basically, they’re bad at everything and don’t really have an identity to build around moving forward. Unless the identity is being bad at everything. In that case, they’re golden.
3. Holy Trinity
All of this might be irrelevant because the Bulls may have the holy trinity, bad owner/GM/coach. Reinsdorf, a bad owner, hired GarPax, a bad GM, and they hired what might be a bad coach in Boylen. Young talent can overcome a lot but the holy trinity is tough to beat. GarPax and Boylen have both shown flashes this year, to be fair, but it has to be considered the exception and not the rule until they’re ready to prove it consistently.
Trilly’s Summer Prescription
1. Pray for Ja Morant
Zion aside, Morant is looking like a perfect fit for Chicago. He’d take the ball out of Kris Dunn’s hand which has to be worth 15 or so wins by itself. In theory, Lavine/Porter’s shooting would open up driving lanes for him and Lavine/Porter’s ability to create for others could allow Morant to slash with ease. Defensively, he and Porter should be able to cover up for Lavine. Porter/Morant take the two toughest perimeter assignments and you hide Lavine on the third. Lavine will have to work his ass off to get to even average defensively, but if he does this is a solid trio to roll out with WCJ/Lauri. They’d have some defensive versatility with WCJ/Porter/Morant, shooting with Lauri/Lavine/Porter and ballhandling in Lavine/Morant/Porter. Darius Garland also works here, in theory, depending on where Chicago’s pick falls but Morant should be the goal.
2. You have to nail this coaching decision
GarPax is going nowhere but the talent pool is strong. Jim Boylen has an option for next year, but the front office could very easily opt to move on with little risk financially. The FO has said as recently as this month that Boylen will definitely be back next season but the next time I believe the Bulls management will be the first time I believe the Bulls management. The Bulls were 5-19 when Boylen took over and have gone 14-32 since then, around a 26-56 record if projected over a full season which would put them….exactly where they are right now in the draft lottery (4th). Pretty good for a tank. Boylen came in hot with the whole “overworking your players and pissing them off” when he got the gig, but a substitute teacher has to come in hot: You can ease up on the reigns but never grab them after you’ve lost them. Under Boylen’s watch, Lavine/Lauri have taken off and Otto Porter has looked like a real piece. He gets a little credit for that but again, they’re bad at EVERYTHING. Some of that goes on him too.
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3. Stay creative
The Bulls have a lot of rookie contracts and a couple of big salary guys. If they’re willing to be creative again, I think they can add an impact player in re-agency. Free agency is the time when people sign wherever they want. Pre-agency, I think this was coined by Billy Simmons, is guys under contract deciding where to go next, like AD this summer. I think re-agency could be next. Re-agency is basically what they did with Otto Porter: Take a big deal that was signed a couple of years ago and hope 2.5 years of Otto Porter is a better investment than 5 years of Otto Porter.
By this measure, I think the Bulls could make a play for the last two years of Mike Conley’s deal. Or if Kawhi leaves Toronto, one year of Kyle Lowry could be worth it for the right price. You still draft a Morant/Garland, only Conley/Lowry handles the gig until they’re ready. It’d require Memphis/Toronto to take a combo of Felicio/Dunn/Valentine/Hutchinson/pick swaps in order to get off their big deal but stranger things have happened. Odell Beckham Jr is a goddamn Cleveland Brown, after all.
I also think Lavine’s talents give the Bulls some options for the backcourt players to put around him. They could go with a Pat Bev (Chicago native that’s an unrestricted FA this summer btw) type, that can run a basic offense, hit an open 3 and defend the other teams PG. They could go with a vet like Conley that would allow Lavine to be a dangerous threat off the ball. They could go with a combo guard like Malcon Brogdon (RFA this summer) that could take turns facilitating with Lavine/Porter and also handle tougher defensive assignments so Lavine can coast. They have options here, and with the rest of the roster. They might blow it but at the same time, they might not.
Rebuild status: Oh hell yea