2019-20 NBA Season Preview Series: Houston Rockets
Pretty much every season since 2013-14, the Houston Rockets have been one of the best teams in the NBA. Sure there was that little baby step back when they went 41-41 in 2015-16, but outside of that this is a franchise that is pretty much a lock for mid 50s wins and more recently some deep postseason runs. Even last year which had a pretty rough start, they still finished with 53 wins. You could say they’ve been knocking on the door and simply haven’t been able to get over that final hurdle to the NBA Finals. Having said that, they are also a franchise that does a whooooooole lot of bitching. I’m not talking about their fanbase, every fanbase bitches about their team, but with the Rockets it comes from the top. Both their GM and best player love to talk about how they keep getting screwed one way or another. It’s part of the reason why people don’t like them, they often talk about how they are the best when time and time again they have failed to actually beat the best. That gets annoying after a while it doesn’t matter who you are.
But if there’s one thing you can take to the bank, it’s that Daryl Morey will always put his gigantic testicles on the table and do whatever he possibly can to bring the Rockets that elusive title. He is a man that has no fear and that’s exactly what has happened heading into a season with pretty wide open field in the West. Now of course before we break down everything you can expect from this Rockets team, we first must relive their 2018-19 season.
2018-19 Season Highlights
In a summer where everyone loaded up with as much talent as they could, the Rockets had a slightly different approach. Instead of tinkering and maybe trying some different combinations of talent, they essentially have brought everyone back for another go around.
Danuel House, Gerald Green, and Austin Rivers, all key depth pieces for this team found their way back. Eric Gordon just signed a new extension that will keep him out of this summer’s free agent class. It’s clear that the Rockets believe they have the pieces to compete as is, and want to give this roster a few more cracks at it. As of now, their $133,681,634 salary is good for 8th in the league, but that doesn’t tell the whole story of Morey’s genius. Even with all these trades/signings/extensions and then the previous deals for PJ Tucker and Clint Capela, the Rockets STILL are under the luxury tax for this season and are positioned to be able to do it again next season. That is HUGE. That type of flexibility for a contending team is pretty rare and super important moving forward.
There were a lot of shocking moves this summer, there was Paul George demanding a trade and ending up as part of a dynamic duo in LA. We had Kevin Durant and Kyrie teaming up in BKN, the Anthony Davis trade finally happened, and then there was the Houston Rockets. Once OKC decided it was going to blow things up it made sense that Russell Westbrook was going to find a new home, but I don’t think anyone saw the Chris Paul/Westbrook swap. Not after Daryl Morey came out a few weeks before and declared how committed they were to Paul. But now we see a reunion between two former teammates, both MVP winners, and you can understand the method to Morey’s madness. See he’ll be quick to tell you that in NBA history two recent MVPs have only been on the same team in a 3 year span just four times. Every time that’s happened that team went on to win the championship. That’s the good news. But million dollar question though, is will this work?
Even if weird things happen and Westbrook who is an extremely high usage player finds a way to deal with that playing next to James Harden who is also an extremely high usage player, there are certainly reasons to question this pairing. First and foremost, three point shooting. It’s no secret the Rockets get a hard on for a good three point attempt, they led the league with 45.4 a game which was over 7 more than the next closest team. That’s how they play, layups, threes, and free throws. They were 5th in open three attempts last season and shot 38.3%, the second best percentage of teams that shot at least as many per night (19.4). Letting Harden draw attention and then finding shooters is a huge part of their offense. Russell Westbrook, really good at a lot of things, is not the best spot up shooter you’ve ever seen, especially from three. Just 31.9% on the year from deep and 32.3% from the floor overall. Compare that to guys like Harden (41%), Gordon (38%), Tucker (38%), Green (38.6%), Rivers (37%), it’s clear there is more to be desired in this part of Westbrook’s game. We just saw him complete one of the worst three point shooting seasons ever, has back to back seasons of 29% while his 3PA rate was the second highest of his career last season. It’s not much better in terms of pull up threes either, where Westbrook shot 26.4%.
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So the question becomes, if Westbrook is going to be playing more off the ball next to Harden, will be be able to be a consistent enough outside shooter to work within the flow of this offense. Or will the adjustment have to come from Harden who will be the one to play more off ball since he’s a better spot up and pull up shooter? Something tells me it’s going to be Westbrook that has to concede there.
What we can bank on though, is this team is going to isolation you to death. The Rockets led the league at 20.4% isolation frequency and OKC was #2. Now both of these guys are on the same roster which means we’re getting a whole lot of this
If you hated watching the Rockets play because of how Harden held the ball and just went iso the whole time, that’s only going to get worse with Westbrook in the fold, but it’s still an effective method for them. They ranked in the 100th percentile in isolation plays, averaging 1.06 points per possession which was by far the best, and they score around 43% of those possessions. To put it simply, it’s unstoppable.
So if nothing really changed other than swapping point guards, why should you believe in this Rockets team? Well for starters, I’m willing to bet they won’t have the 17th best defense next year. In 2017-18 they were a top 7 defense, and since the All Star break HOU had the 2nd best defense in the entire league. Their lack on that end is why they got off to such a slow start, but if they show they can defend like they did to end this past season, you have to take them seriously as a contender given what a handful they are offensively. Hopefully this time they are more equipped to handle not having Jeff Bzdelik around.
It’ll also be interesting to see how the Rockets approach their bench. Basically, they never use their second unit. Lowest minutes per night in the league, fewest points among bench players per night, now that they have someone like Westbrook I wonder if they’ll be more cautious with Harden. This isn’t exactly the deepest team we’ve ever seen, but burnout is a real concern with this group.
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Perhaps given their postseason shortcomings as of late, people may be down on the Rockets and their chances for this upcoming season. I’m not one of them. I think Harden/Westbrook will work mostly because of where they both are at this stage of their career, but also because I think they understand the opportunity that is in front of them. Their boogieman that is the Golden State Warriors is pretty much a non factor. They’ve been the only team to beat HOU in a playoff series these last few years, and chances are that won’t be a matchup this season. I’ll buy your Rockets stock if you’re selling, and that’s only 43% because Harden is a fellow Sun Devil.
Official Greenie Prediction: 55 games