5 Key Factors For The Ravens To Defend Their AFC North Title
WELCOME BACK BALTIMORE FOOTBALL!
It’s been a long looong offseason since we watched Lamar Jackson’s last ditch effort fall one drive short in the Wild Card round in January. We watched our franchise’s most accomplished QB get traded. We watched our all-time sack leader skip town to close his career in his hometown. We watched two linebackers leave for paychecks far above what we (and any team should) would be willing to pay them. And we swapped out an aging safety for a younger, more athletic veteran who is the best we’ve seen in Baltimore since 20 hung them up.
Which leads us to the 2019 season. This year is the most polarizing Ravens season I can remember. There’s such a wide margin of directions this season could go. I’ve liked what we’ve seen from Lamar and the offense, but the sample size is still relatively small and teams have more time to figure out what he’s capable of. There’s also no question that Lamar is more susceptible to injury than most. Any time your QB1 goes down, your season can spiral quick. The fact that 5 of our 11 leading snap-getters on the defensive side of the ball leads to a lot of questions as well. Those guys were all veterans who lead the league’s best defense last season. When added up, these questions make a disaster season a very believable possibility.
With that said, the Ravens are a winning organization with great coaches who develop talent well and get the most out of their guys. There’s a reason why the Ravens are who they are and the Browns are who they are. I don’t care how many flashy acquisitions a team makes, I wouldn’t bet against the Ravens to repeat. +325 to win the AFC North behind both Pittsburgh (+150) and Cleveland (+175) is a fucking joke. It’s so damn disrespectful and it fires me tf up and I know these guys see it too. We are the AFC North champs and we will continue to be until they take it away from us.
So while a lot of the questions I mentioned before are valid, I also believe strongly in this organization’s ability to answer them. I love the guys we have on this roster. You’re always going to have some pockets of your roster that are a little bit shaky, but that’s just the nature of operating under a salary cap in the 2019 NFL. Overall this roster is deep, it’s well constructed, and the coaches are adept at using the talents we have to get the most of our guys on Sundays. So when we win that division title again this year, it’ll be because we answered the bell on these 5 key factors:
1. Lamar Jackson’s Development As A Passer
Duh. This is all anybody is talking about with regards to the Ravens this year, and really the franchise moving forward. I’ve already waxed poetic about how the narrative of Lamar as a passer is widely misunderstood. Synopsis: He was both 1.) better than you thought and 2.) his development is being judged far differently and unfairly than his (mostly older) peers.
Regardless, there’s no question that he needs to continue to improve as a passer. You can only be a one-dimensional offense for so long before teams start to figure you out. The Chargers were fortunate that they were able to see Lamar for a 2nd time in 3 weeks, and they had a better answer the 2nd time around. Our division rivals will see Lamar countless times over the coming years. Lamar HAS to elevate his play through the air, and everybody knows it.
So many people are stating that he has to improve, but very few are talking about WHERE that improvement needs to be. And when they do, they just use the blanket term of “throwing downfield”. I’m more concerned about how he’s throwing to each side of the field. Take a look at this chart showing his QB rating to each area of the field last season.
Clearly, he’s a pretty good thrower to his arm side, and not so much to his left. This is normal for a young QB, and obviously makes a ton of sense for a mobile QB. He’s very comfortable rolling out right and making throws on the run. It’s also the side that the Ravens run the majority of their offense through both on the ground and in the air. Marshal Yanda’s presence and Orlando Brown’s rookie season is a big part of that. He’s also good at hitting receivers on those crossing routes across the middle. But he obviously needs a ton of improvement throwing left. That top left 81.9 rating downfield is likely skewed by that long TD pass to Mark Andrews against the Chargers. Everything else to his left is trash. He has to be better to that side of the field. Defenses are going to challenge him to throw that direction, and he’s going to have to answer the call.
2. Can The Young Receivers Match Lamar’s Development?
One thing that Eric DeCosta has done well with early in his tenure is give Lamar Jackson a group of guys to develop with. In the past two drafts, Ozzie Newsome and EDC have given him Hayden Hurst, Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, and Miles Boykin in the first 3 rounds of the draft. All 4 guys figure to be factors in the near and long term future of the Ravens offense, and each gives Lamar a little something different to feed off of.
Mark Andrews is the guy I think has the biggest impact in 2019. I wrote a couple of weeks ago about how he has all the makings of the NFL’s next great tight end. He lead rookie tight ends in receiving yards and I’ve said a million times that tight ends always make their big leap in year 2.
Brown and Boykin are beautiful complements to each other and will be a blast to watch for years to come. Brown can obviously fly with the best of them and force defenses to respect that speed, and Boykin can be a huge asset on the outside and in the red zone. Lamar will need a guy to lean on when he’s flushed out of the pocket and needs to throw a contested ball on 3rd down, and I think Boykin (along with Andrews) can be that guy. They’ll certainly have their growing pains as rookies, but at the very least they’ll give D-coordinators one more thing to worry about outside of Lamar’s playmaking ability.
3. Does The Interior Offensive Line Have Enough Depth (Or Even A Competent Left Guard)?
This is exhibit A from when I mentioned earlier that every NFL roster is going to have its holes. This is where the Ravens already have a liability at the starter level, and may have issues should one or more of those guys get hurt. Left tackle, right guard, and right tackle are all in a great position. Ronnie Stanley is pushing his case of being a top 5 blindside pass protector in the league, Marshal Yanda is one of the greatest guards the game has ever seen, and Orlando Brown was a brilliant find in the middle rounds of last year’s draft.
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Matt Skura did just an ok job as a 1st-time starter last season, but certainly has some room for improvement. The more he can improve and build a rapport with Lamar, the more comfortable I am with him in the middle. It’s the left guard position that really raises some eyebrows. We still don’t know who will be starting there on opening day, and Coach Harbs has been playing it close to the vest.
If I had it my way, it’d be James Hurst. He really may be the key to the OL this year. He’s the “swingman” who can supposedly play any position on the line. I’ve been pretty tough on him over the years. That’s mainly a reflection of his ability as a tackle. He’s brutal. He’s pretty much the reason Flacco snapped his ACL and MCL in 2015. He’s actually pretty serviceable on the interior, which is why I want to sharpie his name into the left guard position and have him focus 100% on that. Bradley Bozeman and Ben Powers and Patrick Mekari have given a good push for the job, but they’re inexperienced and I’d rather them focus on mixing in at the rest of the interior OL in practice. But the key here is the depth, or lack thereof at the tackle position. If Stanley or Brown go down at tackle, we’re in real trouble. And the possibility of that is heightened when you have a mobile QB who extends plays. Guys are much more likely to fall awkwardly into a knee or roll an ankle when plays go off script. You generally pray for good health, but we really need to focus those prayers on the offensive line’s health.
4. Can The Defense Still Get To The Quarterback?
This has been a maaaajor major point of discussion throughout the offseason. Many have been highly critical of EDC for not going out and getting a guy like Justin Houston when he was available. Me? Not so much. Let’s not beat around the bush. Z Smith was a good 3rd down pass rusher. Would’ve loved to have him back. But he’s not too different than a lot of the other pass rushers we’ve let walk in free agency. I think we were totally prepared to let him walk away this offseason, and he got paid handsomely. Good for him.
Sizzle was a bit more of a shocker. Never did it cross my mind that he would retire as anything other than a Raven. But again, let’s not beat around the bush. His snap counts were diminishing as last year went on, and like the previous year, his performance tapered off down the stretch. It was probably as good a time as ever to cut the cord if we were ever going to.
So what’s that leave us with? The one guy who will be a workhorse is Matthew Judon. He’s established, he’s a guy DC’s have to prepare for, he’s the clear leader for the Ravens as it comes to pass-rushing. Behind him it’s a mish-mosh of guys. We remember Pernell Mcphee. Prime example of a guy who benefitted as a 3rd down pass-rusher who moved on from the Ravens for a bigger paycheck with Chicago. Things didn’t turn out great for him, partially because of health and partially because he was asked to be a leader in a place that wasn’t quite up to the standard at the time of the defense he was leaving. He can still be a great pass-rusher, especially now that he’s healthy. All reviews of him in camp suggest that he’s back to being the guy he used to be. Behind McPhee are Tim Williams, Tyus Bowser, and rookie Jaylon Ferguson. None have really proven that they can perform consistently, but they also haven’t really gotten consistent snaps because of the guys in front of them. Hopefully one (or more) of them can join the other two and maintain a formidable pass-rush.
But the biggest reason I’m not concerned with the pass-rush is the man pictured above. Wink Martindale just may be the #1 reason why the defense was #1 in the league last year. He’s a brilliant game planner and a fearless playcaller. His blitz packages have far more to do with the Ravens ability to get after the QB last season than then personnel performing it. The beef upfront with Brandon Williams and Michael Pierce gives him a lot of flexibility to get weird with blitzes and keep the opposition on their toes. That’s not going to change with the loss of Z and Sizzle. McPhee is as good an interior pass-rusher as I can remember. Those other guys should be hungry to establish themselves, and it doesn’t hurt to have a fantastic secondary that can give you some coverage sacks as well. I couldn’t be less worried about the pass rush.
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5. Can Marlon Humphrey Take The Next Step And Become An Elite NFL Cornerback?
As I just mentioned, the secondary is fantastic. Eric Weddle out, Earl Thomas in. That’s certainly an upgrade. Losing Tavon Young for potentially the entire year definitely hurts, but there’s still good depth here. The Ravens essentially have 3 starting caliber corners in Humphrey, Jimmy Smith, and Brandon Carr. Neither of them are quite as talented defending the slot as Young, but Carr will likely do a respectable job.
But where this team really takes a leap is with Marlon Humphrey. Guy played a near flawless corner last season, and is starting to put himself into the conversation for best corner in football. When you’re in a division with the likes of Juju, Odell, and AJ Green, you can’t put enough value on a guy like Marlon who can go in and take away those kinds of weapons 6 times a year. It allows Martindale to do so much more with his defensive gameplans. He doesn’t have to put quite so much focus on their top guy, and can be more aggressive and play the kind of defense we like to play in Baltimore.
This team hasn’t lost a step. They’re young and only getting better. So much concern about the defense falling off, and I just don’t think it holds that much merit. CJ Mosley was a good player, but the reason he’s able to move around so easily is because of the beef up front. Those guys are still there. Sizzle was washed and Z wasn’t even a 3-down pass-rusher. We’ve bred guys to be plug and play for years to replace departures on the defensive side of the ball and this year is no different. Earl Thomas just brings the defense to an embarrassment of riches.
We’re still going to pound the rock. Lamar is only going to get better and better. There’s explosive weapons on the offensive side of the ball. So much speed that teams have to respect. This team isn’t moving backwards. It’s moving forward. And that’s going to lead to a repeat performance as AFC North champions. And hopefully a lot more. I’m excited to see it.
It starts today in Miami. Let’s get after it.