Bruins/Maple Leafs First Round Preview
For the first time since the days of forced busing, the Maple Leafs and Bruins will square off in the playoffs. And considering that the Original Six teams have been in the same division since ’98-’99, it feels long overdue.
Of course, if Toronto made the playoffs in the previous eight seasons, there might already be some animosity in the air. But because they haven’t, the two teams have never truly christened their Northeast Divison rivalry. However, that will happen. And likely tonight.
Many Bs fans, this one included, preferred the Leafs over the Senators or the Isles. No, not because I expect a cakewalk but because I think given the way the Bs have played, they’d have the best chance to advance versus Toronto and perhaps re-acquire their long-lost swagger in the process.
Add in the fact that Phil Kessel turns into one of the Szalinski kids every time he plays his old team, the Leafs dearth of post-season experience, the Bruins dominance of the last few years, and the disparity in overall talent, then the match-up looks even better for the Bs compared to taking on John Tavares or a game Ottawa squad. But nothing is ever easy in these NHL playoffs and we know that ‘on paper’ means about as much as used toilet paper.
So did the Bruins cut their own throats Sunday night, like a poker player on a bad run? Or did they draw just what the doctor ordered to ready them for a run?
FORWARDS
Though shy guy Kessel draws a lot of the heat in TO, he’s hardly the only gifted forward anymore. King Joffrey Lupul, JVR, Nazem (the REM) Kadri, and Tyler Bozak (returning from injury) can all make the Bruins look stupid if the Bs think they’re going to play like they were a week ago. But their bottom six won’t show nearly the threat of the top six, even more so if Randy Carlyle dresses Colton Orr and/or Frazer McLaren.
The Bruins have a quite a few question marks up front. How bad will Nathan Horton’s shoulder hinder his effectiveness? Is Tyler Seguin going to curl and look after crossing the blue line one of these nights or just try to take it to the net every single time? Do we get “Incredible Hulk Lucic” or “Dr. David Banner Lucic”? Will Jaromir Jagr, he of the 681 career goals and more than a point per game in his playoff career, actually see time on the top six? Is the Daug Man gonna bark all day? Or is he gonna bite?
The Bs forwards’ inability to finish lately is hardly a reason to be confident. But they still have an overall better crop of forwards and they (should) know what it takes to win this time of year: ADVANTAGE: BRUINS.
DEFENSEMAN
This is the area where the Bs have the biggest advantage. Though the Leafs have some size on the back-end (save for John-Michael Liles) and Dion Phaneuf/Cody Franson can contribute on the offensive end, they give up a ton of shots and a strong Bruins cycle can catch these guys flat-footed. It’s an area the Bs will need to exploit with match-ups and simple effort because it may be the difference in the series.
Expect Claude to pair up Zdeno Chara with Dennis Seidenberg once again to nullify Kessel. Andrew Ference and Johnny Boychuk, a nightmare combo earlier this season, have both settled their games down after rough starts and provide a combo of D and O, though Boychuk needs to avoid mental errors. January Wunderkind Dougie Hamilton will be watching Game 1 from the ninth floor because deadline pick-up Wade Redden has supplanted him (oh, how silly we all were to think that Claude would actually start a rookie in the playoffs). Redden will be paired with tough, stay-at-home Adam McQuaid. If the Bs struggle to get the puck quickly out of their own end and their zone breakouts remain uglier than Kessel’s rookie year breakouts, then it’s gonna be interesting to see if Claude throws the kid into the fire. You can pack it in all you want, but you still need some mobility and touch back there.
Even with Hamilton in a suit, the Bruins’ D is still better than than Toronto’s. Though Toronto will be physical and tough to play against in their own end, they simply don’t match up. ADVANTAGE: BRUINS.
GOALIES
By any measure, James Reimer had a great season under Toronto’s red-hot microscopic media and fan glare. Which makes it kind of odd that the Leafs were still trying to land a goalie at the deadline. But Reimer is the main reason the Leafs are back in the post-season. His .924 and 2.46 solidifed the Toronto’s main area of weakness of the last few years though he hardly finished the season strong. His last playoff game was four years ago in the ECHL. Ben Scrivens was a serviceable back-up during the regular season but is unlikely to see action unless injury or utter incompetence.
Tuukka Rask has an opportunity to grab the bull by the balls here. He can lock up his position for the next decade with a dominant performance and get paid at the same time. He had a fantastic regular season and was the Bruins best player most nights. He finished with an even 2.00 and .929. He’ll need to bail the Bs out when they go into their inevitable Yakety Sax mode in their own end at some point. In short, he has no excuses. He’ll need to be the Bruins best player. I like Anton Khudobin but if he suits up it means something bad happened.
It’ll be Toronto’s 2005 first-rounder vs. Toronto’s 2006 fourth-rounder. The one they traded for Andrew Raycroft is better. ADVANTAGE: BRUINS.
COACHING
Both guys have each won a Cup though with vastly different styles. Carlyle has gotten more out of these Leafs than perhaps many expected this year. Claude’s charges have struggled with intensity this year. In general, I’d say these guys are even. But not based on their respective seasons. ADVANTAGE: TORONTO.
So the Bs have them up front, on the back line, and in the pipes, should be a cinch, right? Um, no. Not at all. Toronto holds a special teams advantage if only by dint of the Bruins horrible power play. The Bs confidence of the last month has been merely “average” per Chiarelli. They took way too many nights and shifts off this season. And they’re scoring barely two goals a game.
Toronto is going to come out hungry and flying. If the Bs don’t match them immediately in passion, they could find themselves down early (game or series). And that’s frankly going to be the difference. If the Bruins play timid and allow the Leafs to dictate play like they allowed the inferior Caps to do last year, then the ‘Fire Claude’ bandwagon will be firing up the engine in about two weeks. But if the Bruins remember exactly what it takes to march on and bring non-stop intensity, they’ll move on. THE PICK: BRUINS IN 7.
THE REST
Ottawa and Montreal are both picturesque cities along rivers where beaver figures prominently into each local economy. In Ottawa, it’s finely-shaped dough whereas Montreal provides finely-shaped does. But Chez Paree trumps Beaver Tails. Always. HABS IN 7.
Pittsburgh might be missing an angel tonight but it’ll only take a minute for hockey fans to fall in love with Tavares. The Jonathan Toews of the East will have his coming out party. The Isles are playing with house money and nothing to lose. Marc-Andre Fleury has been playoff pudding since winning the Cup four years ago and this version of Tomas Vokoun doesn’t scare me like the Nashville one. All of Pittsburgh’s offense will be for naught when their goalies shit the bed—they’ll need more than a Malkin. Long Island celebrates a 20 year anniversary in style. ISLES IN 7.
I’d rather pick my ass with a bare finger than pick Vancouver. But they have better goaltending, better depth, and they no longer have Raffi Torres. San Jose gets Cheif Brody’d yet again. CANUCKS IN 5.
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Alex Ovechkin comes in as the hottest player in the league. The Rangers limp into the playoffs with very little of last year’s playoff roboticism and no Marian Gaborik. Oates will outduel Tortorella. CAPS IN 6.
Last night’s picks (no plays) are here.
THE PLAYS
ISLES +350 and CAPS -110.
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