Kirby Dach, A Year In Review
Ah yes, the ole season recap blog on March 16th. Still can't quite wrap my head around this entire thing. I keep putting on NHL Network and ESPN expecting to see sports and there is just nothing. I went looking for content on reddit and came across the highlight video from Dach's rookie season and it 99.99% final. At least from a regular season perspective.
I watched that video and got pumped. Skating is good. Hands in tight are very good. Smart. Responsible. Good on Chiclets. Decent shot. Good vision. He seems like everything you want out of a center. And yet...the production just wasn't always there.
Kirby Dach finished the season with 8 goals and 15 assists for 23 points in 64 games. A very solid rookie season, especially for an 18 year-old. The pessimist "yeah, but..." argument here is that his production doesn't line up with the typical 18 year-old franchise type players that burst onto the scene. McDavid had 48 points in 45 games at 18. Auston Matthews score 40 goals his rookie year. MacKinnon had more production. Kane had more production. Typically, when you draft a franchise type #1 center or elite winger in the top 3 they come in and are BIG time players from the jump. We didn't really see that from Kirby. It's why I get annoyed when people start banging the table for a complete tear down that involves trading Toews, Kane, and Keith. Those players don't come along very often. You can't just find them every year. Kirby might be an all-star some day, but he might not be a guy capable of being the best player on the very best team. The Hawks won three Cups because they had three of those types of guys and it's fitting that they each won a Conn Smythe.
The counter argument in Kirby's favor about his production in 2019-20 is a good one. Even though he is 6'4 and 200+lbs he is definitely not "physically mature". Physically ready to play in the NHL, yes. Finished growing into his own body, no. Also, historically, it just takes power-forward type players a little longer to reach their peak. McDavid, Kane, Matthews, MacKinnon didn't have to change their games that much going from Junior to the NHL. Dach was so much bigger and stronger than Junior competition that when he, or any player who utilizes their size, makes the jump to the NHL there is a learning curve on how to best use their reach, protect the puck, and overcome challenges physically that they had never before since they were always the biggest and strongest guy in their leagues. Kirby also didn't even really have the chance to have a big summer. He went from the draft to Team Canada camps, to prospect camp, to the prospect tournament. When you have a loaded summer like that there isn't a lot of time to really work on your own personal skill development or your body. When you throw the concussion he suffered at the Traverse City prospects tournament and the fact that the concussion cost him the training camp and preseason then Kirby certainly has a story to tell about why his production really dipped for long stretches during the season.
Overall, I am VERY bullish about Kirby's future. I don't know if he can be a captain type stud 200ft player who gets you 90 points per year. I think he ends up being a tick below that, but that is still an unbelievably rare player and the Hawks should be thankful they have a guy like that in the fold for the long run. In the immediate future, if Kirby makes a big step next summer and Strome re-signs then the Blackhawks have the potential to be stronger up the middle than they've been in my lifetime if they go Toews-Dach-Strome.
Was Dach the right pick at #3? On draft night I didn't think so
I think knowing what I know now I still would've taken Byram. I hope I am wrong, but a blueline built around Byram, Boqvist, and Mitchell would've looked pretty dangerous going forward. Dach looks like the perfect 1B type center. Point per game type ceiling and a + level defensive player as well. Glue him to Toews and Kane this summer and hope for a big jump that puts the Hawks back in the playoffs. The real playoffs.