Tommy Stats NFL Week 1: Saints Slow Starts, Packers Unders And More
Welcome to the lab. Every Sunday morning during this NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats and trends that I presented on Barstool Sports Advisors, plus some additional ones that I didn't get to use. These stats are a mixture of ones I've found across various websites, and also some just through my own research from pouring through the data (big time statistician term).
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook, subject to change from the time I compiled this.
Cleveland Browns (6-10, 5-10-1 ATS in 2019) vs. Baltimore Ravens (14-2, 10-6 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BAL -7.5
T 47.5
-Ravens are 9-3 ATS in Week 1 under John Harbaugh
-New head coaches are 4-11 ATS over the last two seasons in their debut with a new team
Seattle Seahawks (11-5, 7-8-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Falcons (7-9, 8-8 ATS)
Featured on Barstool
1 PM on FOX
SEA -3
T 49
-The Falcons are 13-7 ATS as a home dog since Matt Ryan became the starter in 2008
-The under is 9-3 in Falcons last 12 home games
-The under is 8-2 in Seahawks last 10 games as a road favorite
-The Seahawks 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 Week 1s
-Seattle is 5-18-1 ATS last 24 September road games
-Atlanta is 15-6 ATS last 21 home games in September
Green Bay Packers (13-3, 10-6 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (10-6, 9-7 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
MIN -2.5
T 45
-The under is 9-0 in Packers last 9 divisional games
-The under is 26-9 in Vikings last 35 vs. NFC North.
-The under is 6-0 the last 6 times these two have met in Minnesota
-Despite winning 3 less games than the Packers last year, the Vikings point different was actually 41 points better than Green Bay
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9, 5-9-2 ATS) vs. New Orleans Saints (13-3, 11-5 ATS)
4:25 PM on FOX
NO -3.5
T 48
-The Saints are 1-12 ATS in their last 13 Week 1 and 2 games
-The Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 September home games
-The over is 10-2 in the Saints last 12 Week 1 games
-Tom Brady has been a favorite in 74 straight regular season starts. In his career as an underdog, he's 33-13-1 ATS
Dallas Cowboys (8-8, 9-7 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (9-7, 10-5-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
DAL -3
T 51.5
-A repeat from above but also applies to Mike McCarthy in Dallas - over the past two seasons, coaches with a new team are just 4-11 ATS in Week 1
-People are accustomed to the Cowboys going under, especially on the road, but that has actually reversed recently.
-The over is 13-6 in the Cowboys last 19
-The over is 7-3 in the Cowboys last 10 road games
If you missed this week's Advisors, make sure to catch up here to get all your winners before kickoff.