Rumormongering About Potential Patriots QBs, Vol. VI: Russell Wilson
This is the fifth in a series. Volume I: Aaron Rodgers is here. This is Volume II, me being right about Matthew Stafford not coming to New England. Here's Volume III on Jimmy Garoppolo. This is Volume VI: Derek Carr. And here's Volume V, putting very little stock in the idea the Patriots would pay the price being asked for Carson Wentz.
Russell Wilson. Russell frigging Wilson. It's insane to even consider a generational talent like him is even available at the age of 32. But that's the NFL in 2021. Consider that of the 24 quarterbacks drafted in the 1st round between 2009 and 2016, not one is still with the team that drafted him. So it should come as no shock that 2012's 75th overall pick might be trade fodder.
I say "might" because no one is really saying anything. Not publicly. A couple of weeks ago we went from hearing that Wilson wants out of Seattle to doubts about whether he and the Seahawks can "co-exist" and "the situation is unsustainable" in a span of about 48 hours.
And while I'm uncomfortable with how much this bizarre early offseason is making me agree with Nick Wright, he has a good point about how the absence of any kind of denial from the Seahawks would seem to indicate this is all serious.
The silence might not say everything, but it says a lot. In that Sherlock Holmes "the dog that didn't bark" sort of way.
And you can sympathize with Wilson wanting out. By all accounts, he's frustrated by the fact he's been sacked close to 400 times in his nine year career, and it's not because he's immobile. He added 47 last year after leading the league with 48 in 2019. And his career high is 51, the season before that. According to Pro Football Focus, he had the most dropbacks under pressure in 2020 and was third in intentional throwaways. It's been a bad situation forever, and either through neglect or a systemic issue, it's not getting any better.
But whoever lands Wilson is going to get a guy who threw a career best 40 touchdowns last year in spite of his lack of protection. A guy who's had a passer rating over 100 in six of his nine seasons, including each of his last three. A guy who in 2020 was behind only Aaron Rodgers in TDs, sixth in completion %, 9th in passing yards, 7th in passer rating and had a higher QBR than Tom Brady.
As far as the Patriots somehow landing Wilson? You might say I'm dreamer, but I'm not the only one. While he admitted - as I do - it's a "deep, deep dream," no less a Belichick insider than Willie McGinest is having the same thoughts. Imagine there's a trade for Russell Wilson/ It isn't hard to do/ Going into the free agent market/ Signing Chris Godwin too-oo-oo.
Here's where it gets complicated. As you'd imagine when there's a chance of prying a player of Wilson's franchiseishness loose, it becomes a seller's market. According to Michael Silver, while Nick Caserio in Houston is telling anyone who calls that he's not moving Deshaun Watson, Seahawks GM John Schneider is listening to offers on Wilson. He says a third of the league has called to ask. And the eBay bids right now are up to three No. 1 picks or best offer:
And since it's totally relevant to the discussion, I'll throw in that Wilson's 2021 cap hit is no joke, but it's manageable for a team with space. According to Over the Cap, he's got the fourth biggest cap number among quarterbacks at $32 million, which is almost $10 million less than Ben Roethlisberger.
So where does that put the Patriots? You've got to assume that the asking price and the cap number are going to limit the field of bidders substantially. Massive, risky trades that don't work out are career enders. (Just ask Mike Ditka.) And as of right now, only six teams have more than $32 million in cap room. And fully 13 teams are above the cap and need to dump payroll as it is. So with such a high buy in, that makes for a small sample size of players at Schneider's table.
Which leads us to the question of whether there's any possibility of Belichick being one of the high rollers at that table. On the surface, it sounds looney tunes. So far it's been business as usual out of Foxboro. According to Jeff Howe of The Athletic (paywall), the Pats have called about every QB on the market. Stafford and Wentz are the only ones that have moved and New England was reportedly not in the hunt in either deal. And even with a limited number of players, Wilson will not be gotten without pushing a lot of stacks into the middle of the table.
So this would be the absolutely boldest, most daring, brass ballsiest gamble by Belichick in a career built on low risk/high upside personnel moves. It would be totally out of character. And yet it makes sense on a number of levels.
For starters, what GM in league history has ever done more with fewer 1st round picks? When he's not trading down in the 1st, he's trading out of it altogether. And the league has taken two of his firsts away over nothing. To beat the gambling analogy even further to death, the higher the pick, the higher the stakes. Those misses are costly. Look at Wentz. He cost the Eagles two 1st rounders, a 2nd, a 3rd, a 4th, and $79 million, $30 million of which is dead money. You know who's not a risk? Russell Wilson. He's a known commodity. The constant instead of the variable. I'm not saying Belichick would be excited about spending so much draft capital to get one player. But if anyone would be, it's him. And when the return is a transformative player like Wilson who will make you a contender for the rest of your coaching career, it's at least plausible.
Besides, three 1sts are what Seattle is asking for, not insisting on. Everything is negotiable. If Wilson is truly as unhappy as we're hearing, and with such a limited market for his services, that price can come down. Maybe three 1sts but New England gets back some picks in that sweet spot of the draft Belichick loves so much, the second day. This way he gets the kind of player he probably can't rebuild without. He still has money to spend to build around him. And he gets to spend it because Wilson is exactly the sort of QB that will attract a Godwin or a Hunter Henry (who has made it clear an elite quarterback is an absolute must in order for him to sign anywhere). Again, this would be an uncharacteristically bold move. But there's not a GM in the league with more job security than Belichick. If it happens, it'll break the planet Earth in two. I'd love to see it.
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The chances Russell Wilson comes to New England: 20%