The Miami Heat's Entire Season Is Essentially On The Line Tonight

Michael Reaves. Getty Images.

For the first time so far this playoffs, we have our first game where a team's season and dreams are on the line. After losing a heartbreaker in Game 1 and then getting completely demolished in Game 2, the Heat are on life support as we head into Game 3. In NBA history there have been 140 series that have seen a team go up 3-0. They are 140-0. This Heat team should know pretty well just how important it is to avoid that considering just last year they got up 3-0 on both the Pacers and Bucks in the bubble. 

You look up and down their roster so far this series, and really outside of Goran Dragic and Duncan Robinson you really can't find a player that has even remotely shown up. Jimmy Butler is averaging 12.5 points on 25/22% shooting. Bam's been completely neutralized at 13 points on 34% shooting. Trevor Ariza just 5 points on 27/22%. Kendrick Nunn only 14 points on 33/27%. Tyler Herro at 13 points on 20/42%. It's been a bloodbath.

For this Heat team to have a chance tonight, it starts with their two best players. They need less of this version of Jimmy Butler and more of this guy

You can't talk about how all the Heat had to do was get to the playoffs and then you would do the rest and then promptly stink up the joint to the point where now you're down 0-3 and your season is over. The same is true for Bam. Everyone slobbed his knob because he beat up on Daniel Theis in the bubble, and yet here we are and the Bucks have completely removed him from the equation. 

It's been pretty crazy to see how much the Bucks have forced the Heat away from playing how they normally do, and you're seeing the results. During the regular season the Heat led the NBA in cutting. They did it around 9.4% of the time, averaged 1.25 points per possession and shot 63%. They scored about 62% of the time they did it. Through the first two games? That frequency number has been nearly cut in half at just 5.6%. They're shooting just 50% on cuts and score only 46% of the time. That is a massive drop off in a major way the Heat play. It's what normally makes them so tough the guard. The player movement, putting Bam at the high post and letting him pick you apart. That's basically been nonexistent so far.

We're also seeing the Bucks take away anything coming off screens. With the shooters that the Heat have, this is also an important part of their offense. During the regular season they ranked in the 100th percentile in off screen offense. So far in the playoffs they rank in the 0 percentile, are shooting just 29% off screens and score just 37% of the time they do it. That's where all that Bucks switching has really made a difference. That is not something the Heat saw last year in their playoff series. 

The Bucks have also been really effective at taking away handoffs as well. This is a majority of how Duncan Robinson scores, and he's shooting 33% on handoffs (30% frequency). Same with Nunn who is at 33% shooting and Dragic at 40% shooting. 

On the defensive end, we're seeing one of the main issues with the Heat defense (opponent 3PM) already play a role. The Bucks missed a ton of open looks in Game 1, and then Game 2 rolled around and those shots fell. You blinked and it was a 25 point game. This is a team that was 5th all year in opponents points, so if they want to keep their season alive they have to show up on that end. That wall which was so effective against Giannis last year isn't really doing dick this time around. Giannis is still averaging 28.5/15.5/5.5/3.0 so far in the series. Little different story from his 21ppg in last year's battle. 

Advertisement

The good news is, you win tonight and this series is 2-1, it has a whole new life. It's not like the Heat are dead and buried just yet. They were 21-15 at home this year, and the Bucks at least looked more mortal at 20-16 on the road. I will remind you the Heat's only win against the Bucks this year came at home (in Game 4….after they have up 144 to MIL the night before). The fear is that we've already seen the Heat shooting explosion come in Game 1 where they made 20 3PM and still lost. It's going to take another one fo those shooting performances for them to stay competitive with this Bucks team, because if they don't get it you can pretty much wrap this series up. It's over.