Five Alive
I want it on record, the photo service we use not having an image of the delicious citrus beverage Five Alive is a travesty. I knew I would be calling this week's blog title Five Alive, but couldn't find the image. For all you kids out there- give this (link) a try next time you hit the supermarket (or in your terms insta-cart your order etc). Nonetheless, we go from apple picking last weekend to the best slate of the board thus far... hence - (Week) Five Alive.
Alabama- Ole Miss, Georgia-Arkansas, Wisconsin-Michigan, Baylor- OK State, Cincy-Notre Dame .... wall to wall top tier matchups. If you apple pick this weekend you need an intervention.
Quickly let's unpack last weekend :
- Unranked team to pull an upset : Baylor +215 : WINNER
- ____ vs ____ has over written all over it : SMU/ TCU Over 65 : Winner (also mentioned SMU +9 bonus winner)
- Favorite late game spread: Cal +7.5 : WINNER
That's a 3-0 weekend, after a 3-1 weekend the week before , totaling a 6-1 run in this space. If only my full card could look so pretty.
Onto the questions for this week ...
- My favorite Friday night bet is : _____
- I bet you are saying I will say Maryland here like the rest of the world. Incorrect. I think Maryland is such a public underdog it's time to pass on that game. My pick for the Friday night card is : BYU -9.5 . Utah State posted 443 yards last week vs Boise State yet managed just three points (as well as 3 turnovers). But it's their defense that worries me more. The Aggies rank 98th is points allowed, 121st in yards allowed, 105th vs the pass, and 112th vs the run. BYU had a rusty 2nd half vs South Florida last week, and could be in a tricky spot with Boise St on deck, although I trust their resume thus far and believe in their rush attack (58th in country). Cougars cover.
- My favorite road favorite is : _____ _
This always seems to have a variety of options on my card. I think Memphis's offense is a MAJOR worry for Temple. Temple has the #1 Pass Defense in the country, but that's because they are 95th against the run. Also Temple's past opponents aside from Rutgers (Wagner, BC and Akron) makes me think that Pass D is a tad inflated.
I think App State is going to pose major problems for Georgia State's run defense which allows 185 per game on the ground. I have no hesitation laying 10 with the road favorite.
My best bet for road favorites is Air Force -10.5 . All anyone is talking about is New Mexico allowing 76.3 rush yards a game. Don't get me wrong- Rocky Long (former San Diego St Head Coach) is doing great as their Def. Coordinator and he was a staple of winning for The Ryders when he was at San Diego St. However, I think this 76.3 yards per game is a product of their competition.
Houston Baptist (who they only beat 27-17), New Mexico ST, Texas A&M , and UTEP is not necessarily and onslaught of power offenses to test this Lobo defense.
Air Force's disciplined rush option attack (357.3 per game), their constant cut blocking etc, I feel really is a much different challenge/ scheme that New Mexico will struggle with.
Add in the fact that New Mexico's offense was dealing with Covid issues at WR last week and they miss this week again, against an Air Force D that ranks in the top 50 of PPG allowed, YPG allowed, Pass and Rush D, I think it's a route for the servicemen. Air Force 1h -6.5, Air Force -10.5
- My favorite total is : _________
Give me Hawaii/Fresno State Over 63.5. I'm confident in Fresno St scoring as consistently as they have all season. Their 42 ppg is good for 12th in the country. The Bulldog defense is good, but not untouchable as proven last week when lowly UNLV put up 30. I think Hawaii's going to be playing from behind and throwing, and needing to score to keep up. I'm on this over as I think if Fresno gets the 42-45 they have been week in and week out, I'll take 20 from The Rainbows and cash the ticket.
- Screw the points, this team wins outright :_______
Nevada +6.5 is my play, but for this portion I'll tell you I'm confident in the Nevada +185 option offered by Barstool Sportsbook. Anyone remember last year when Zach Wilson and BYU went and beat Boise on the famous blue turf ? I by no means think this is the 51-17 beating (Boise also had some QB injuries that night), but I do think this is a first round talent QB in Carson Strong going to a conference power and coming out on top by putting the team on his shoulders. Nevada's already beaten Cal and played Kansas St. I like the fight in the Wolfpack and think they come out on top.
Situational Spots
Road Warriors
(teams on the 2nd game of back to back road games)
- Louisville @ Wake Forest
- Cincy @ Notre Dame (bye in between)
- UCF @ Navy (bye in between)
- USF @ SMU
- Indiana @ State Penn
- Kansas @ Iowa State
- Texas Tech @ West Virginia
- FIU @ FAU
- Marshall @ MTSU
- S.Miss @ Rice
- Bowling Green @ Kent State
- Toledo @ UMASS
- Nevada @ Boise St (bye in between)
- UNLV @ UTSA
- Washington St @ Cal
- Tennessee @ Missouri
- Ark St @ Georgia Southern
- Louisiana @ S.Alabama
Stat Center
5 games with the lowest combined points per game ALLOWED this weekend :
Advertisement
- Georgia / Arkansas combined 20.3 ppg allowed
- Maryland / Iowa combined 25.3 ppg allowed
- BC / Clemson combined 28.3 ppg allowed
- Michigan / Wisconsin combined 33.1 ppg allowed
- South Carolina / Troy combined 33.8 ppg allowed
Injuries
- Kansas St is still uncertain who's starting at QB , Skylar Thompson and Will Howard are both banged up.
-Army's Qb Christian Anderson left the game last week during a monster day. Will be unknown his status vs Ball State
-Central Florida has QB Dillon Gabriel and RB Isaiah Bowser on it's injury report
- Texas Tech's Tyler Shough is out indefinitely
Full Pick Em video
Gamble responsibly and let's turn this thing around this year. Have a great weekend