It's Early, But This Year's Rookie Class Is Off To An Awesome Start
I don't know about you, but one of my favorite parts of this first month of the season has been watching this year's rookie class come in and make legit immediate impacts all across the league. While last year had some obvious high end impact rookies like Edwards/Ball/Haliburton, so far this year it feels like the 2021 class is giving teams way more NBA ready type players who are not only getting legit time, but are having a real impact on their team's success. This is all with the #1 pick and #2 picks starting slow! This honestly could end up being one of the more fun ROY races we've had in recent memory. There are like 3-5 guys who should be in contention for that award all year long if not more. I'd say that's a pretty good sign for the future of the league, so let's have a look at how some guys have started.
Evan Mobley: 15.6 points / 7.9 rebounds / 2.3 assists / 1.1 steals / 1.5 blocks / 52/33% splits
Maybe it's because I just had to watch Mobley ruin my life this weekend, but holy moly does this kid look good on both ends. You could tell me he's a 10 year vet and I would believe it. He makes plays that you certainly do not expect a rookie 7fter to make, the passing is legit awesome and I dunno if he's this weird KG spinoff or what but holy moly
How happy are the Cavs and their fans right now that he fell to 3? The Cavs surprising 9-5 start is certainly no fluke, they've had the 5th toughest schedule to start the season, and their success is largely due to the fact that Evan Mobley looks like a unicorn player. His on/off splits tell the story. The offense, defense, and net rating (+4.5 vs -1.5) are all better with him on the floor. Their AST% drops from 64% to 60% when he leaves the court.
You want big moments? Mobley currently shoots 71/66% in the fourth quarter of games to start the season. In "clutch" moments he shoots 62% from the floor. As a rookie. That seems good
Scottie Barnes: 16.2 points / 8.3 rebounds / 2.8 assists / 1.1 steals / 0.7 blocks / 51/20% splits
It seems like the only people who knew Scottie Barnes was capable of playing like he has to start the season were the Raptors. Remember when they sort of got killed for passing on Suggs and took Barnes 4? Uh, well, he's a certified two way monster with a scoring arsenal that nobody saw coming
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Would it be crazy to suggest that Barnes is already the Raptors best player? That might be a little strong but I feel like every time I watch the Raptors play they are being carried by Barnes on both ends. He's second on the Raptors in total contested shots, he's already shown the ability to lock down opposing teams best players and he has a relentless motor. The Raptors are something crazy like 7-1 when he scores over 17 points or some shit. You add his length to a team that already has Siakam/OG/Trent Jr and you can understand why the Raptors lead the NBA in deflections per game at 21.0. They make it extremely hard to drive the ball and Barnes being so solid defensively is a big reason why. He was talked about as being more of a project type player, but in reality he has stepped right in and been incredible. What a draft hit.
Chris Duarte: 14.3 points / 4.4 rebounds / 2.1 assists / 0.9 steals / 0.7 blocks / 43/40% splits
Duarte was talked about as being one of the more NBA ready prospects heading into the draft, but with his age he sort of slid a little bit down to the Pacers at 13. All he's done in lead all rookies in 3PM per night (2.2) while shooting 40% from deep. Not bad for a Pacers team that desperately needed shooting.
Did anyone think he'd be 3rd among rookies in scoring to start the year? Probably not. With him being so solid so quickly, I do wonder what it might mean for the future of Jeremy Lamb. He's an expiring deal and TJ Warren should be back eventually, so it wouldn't shock me if he's someone that's flipped at the deadline.
Duarte's shooting has helped the Pacers jump from 17th in 3P% last year to 10th so far this season and he's very much backed up the idea that he was one of the true NBA ready players entering the league this summer. I wonder if some teams that may have passed on him due to his age are regretting that at the moment, because he looks like a guy that's going to be knocking down threes at a great clip for the next 10 years.
Franz Wagner: 13.0 points / 3.8 rebounds / 1.8 assists / 1.5 steals / 0.5 blocks / 44/35% splits
Jalen Suggs may have been the higher pick, but when it comes to their early season production, Franz Wagner has been the better rookie.
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He's 5th in terms of rookie scoring, 4th in 3PM, and leads all rookies in steals. Not bad for the 8th pick. Sure the Magic's record might stink, but if you're someone that feels like Suggs will eventually come around then the Magic hitting on both of their high lottery picks would be pretty massive as they go through this rebuild. While it would have been cool to maybe see Wagner on a team like GS, I don't think he would have the same role/opportunity that he does with the Magic. He's just 0.6 points behind Wendell Carter Jr as the 2nd leading scorer, and he obviously has the green light to take whatever shot he wants.
The Magic need to hit on as many of these young guys as they can because I wouldn't exactly call them a free agent destination, and when it comes to Wagner that certainly looks like a hit.
Josh Giddey: 9.3 points / 6.4 rebounds / 5.9 assists / 1.3 steals / 0.5 blocks / 37/28% splits
It might not always be pretty, but I continue to be so intrigued with Giddey as a prospect. The playmaking at his height is awesome
and the Thunder's strategy is pretty simple. Throw as many picks at intriguing players as you can, and if one sticks, great. What do they have to lose? They are tanking. While things don't look that great on the Poku front as of yet, the same is not true of Giddey. He leads all rookies in assists and is 3rd in rebounds, and every night you see more and more examples of his elite vision and playmaking. Would it shock anyone if at one point he got close to averaging a triple double? The shot you hope comes around as he gets older since he's just 19 years old, but it's safe to say he's already shown that he belongs in the NBA and can play at this level. Perhaps this is why the Thunder took him surprisingly at 6.
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The list really goes on and on. These were some of the guys that first came to mind, but you look deeper in the class and you see legit moments from guys like Davion Mitchell (9th), Bones Hyland (26th), Alperen Sengun (16th), Ayo Dusunmu (38th) etc. This is all without the top two picks really being all that impressive to start, which is you know is coming since they are so talented.
There are certainly a lot of fun storylines to begin the 2021-22 season, but for me pretty high up the list is how impactful this rookie class has been and will continue to be. Feels like we'll look back on this class and it'll end up being one of the deepest drafts in recent memory.