The Celtics Thankfully Stopped The Bleeding Last Night And End November On A High Note
When we entered the month of November, the Celtics were 2-4 and coming off another brutal 2OT loss. It was their second one of those in the first six games. In their first game of the month, they blew a 17 point fourth quarter lead to the Bulls and dropped to their lowest point of the season at 2-5. Since then, we've seen this team have a 64% winning percentage and play at a 52 win pace. We've also seen them get their ass kicked by the Nets and have another pathetic loss against the Spurs. Basically, we've seen it all over these last 15 games of November. But with a daunting December ahead, it was important for this team to stop the bleeding last night and end on a high note. That's the one thing I can say we've seen this team be able to do coming off their embarrassing losses. They haven't let that shit snowball. There was the CHI collapse, then the team won their next two. Then there was the CLE collapse, the Celts won the next night. After dropping a game against the Hawks, they won 3 straight. So now coming off these back to back losses, they did it once again by taking care of business against the Raptors.
The goal of November was to stack up as many wins as they could before we have to get through the toughest month on their schedule. You could argue their record should have been even better, but at 9-6 the Celts put themselves right back into the thick of things. They woke up today just 2.5 games out of a 2 seed with 61 games to play. All while playing mostly terrible, inconsistent basketball through the first quarter of the season. Their best player literally cannot make a shot again and yet is finding other ways to contribute to winning. That's a positive.
Last night wasn't so much about beating the Raptors, they're whatever. Both sides were missing guys and they've lost 9 of their last 12. This was more about stopping a skid and getting back to building positive momentum into December. As a reminder, this is what's on deck
There is not an "easy" game in that month. Granted no game for this Celts team is ever "easy" no matter who they play because they are wildly inconsistent, but you know what I mean. Even the Wolves are not a cupcake team anymore. You see what they just did to a full strength Philly team? I mean I know the Sixers are currently in the lottery but that team still has talent and was at home.
The Celts finished their November with the 4th most wins in the NBA for the month, the 4th best defense, and the 9th best net rating. It wasn't perfect, it was still filled with inexcusable losses, but it ends on a high note and that's all that matters. But before we can truly look ahead to what comes next, first let's talk about what we saw last night.
The Good
- There were a lot of legit candidates for the top spot of this blog, one of the most prestigious places you can find yourself on the internet after a basketball game, but after going through the tape and the numbers, we have to begin with Marcus Smart. This is a man that talked his shit after that 2-5 loss and has backed up everything he said with his play ever since. This was not a case of a guy saying shit and then doing nothing with his own game to back it up. Smart talked the talk and has walked the walk and then some this entire month
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On a night where this team didn't have Dennis Schroder's offense and Jayson Tatum was incapable of hitting any sort of shot, Marcus Smart put the team on his back. In a game like this, the team needed him to shoot more and he responded with a 7-16 (4-10) performance shooting the ball. That included two huge fourth quarter threes and at the same time Smart was second among starters in both rebounds and assists. Of his non 3PA, all 6 of those shots came in the paint where Smart was 3-6. That's 50% for those not great at math.
Last night marked the 12th straight game Smart has had at least 5+ assists. In 10 of those games, he's had 6+. In 5 of those games he's had 8+. Over that 12 game sample, we're seeing Smart throw up 12.8/4.3/6.9/1.9 on 43.8/29% splits. The three point shooting is still pretty gross, but last night was another example of why that shouldn't get you all worked up. He can have nights where he'll make 40% of his threes in addition to everything else he already brings. You then add in his All NBA Defense that we've seen this year, and this is the version of Marcus Smart that everyone said they wanted. People were quick to call him the team cancer at 2-5, well let's be just as quick to give him his proper acknowledgment given how he's played this entire month.
- I don't know why Jayson Tatum can't shoot right now. It's one of the world's most confusing mysteries. But what I loved last night was the fact that he did not let his horrific 2-16 performance impact his overall game. Tatum was still extremely engaged defensively, hit the glass well, and finished with a career best 10 assists. Nothing he did felt forced offensively and Ime even said as much
Big picture, this team is going to need Tatum to score. That I think we all know. But to still get impactful production despite a lack of scoring was certainly nice to see. A guy that went 2-16 was still a starter best +13 in his 37 minutes. That's how you make an impact without scoring the ball. The 10 assist number is great, but then you see that he had 15 potential assists and it really shows how well Tatum moved the ball. He has confidence in his teammates and it shows. Part of the reason we saw some of the solid performances from the role guys last night was because it was Tatum who was finding them off the dribble. The entire Raptors defense was keyed in on stopping him, so Tatum did what he always does and made the right passes. This is why I never understand why people call him a selfish player. It's like they aren't watching. The only difference from last night to other solid Tatum passing nights was the guys made their open looks.
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- One of those guys being Grant. Holy shit what a season we're seeing from Grant Williams. I think it's exceeding even my expectations which is pretty nuts.
Would you believe me if I told you that GRANT WILLIAMS is the only player in the entire league to currently be averaging 50/40/90? It's true. Seth Curry is at like 49.5% from the floor so that doesn't count. The difference from Grant's Year 2 to Year 3 is so drastic I don't even know how to properly make sense of it. He's taking the Year 3 leap that is so important for a young player. His defense is back to being solid like we saw as a rookie, but the three point shooting is something else. Grant was 3-4 last night from behind the arc and is now 31-72 on the season (43%). This is not a case where his percentage is high due to a low volume. He's taking a career high 3.4 3PA a night. In fact, you could make the case that Grant is having a career year so far. It's the highest FG% of his career, highest 3PM, 3P%, REB, AST, BLK, and points of his career while also having a career low in turnovers. You could make the case that Grant has actually been one of their most consistent players through the first 21 games as wild as that might sound.
The best way I could describe Grant's play is a guy who has identified his role and is thriving in it. He doesn't try and do too much. He knows his job is to defend at a high level, protect the glass and make his open threes. If he does that, he's a more than serviceable rotation player.
- Speaking of serviceable rotation players, that's exactly what we're seeing Josh Richardson blossom into after his slow start. After being sick and missing a few games, Richardson came right in and helped shoulder the scoring load for that second unit. To say it was very much needed would be a gigantic understatement
When they brought Richardson in, I think we were all hoping to get a player closer to the MIA version than the DAL version. I'd say that's exactly what's happened. Did you know Richardson has started the season with a career best 46% from the floor? Even his three point shooting is basically league average at 34%. But what I love about Richardson's start is how much we're seeing him put the ball on the floor and score in the midrange. That's where he's at his best. When he avoids just being a spot up shooter and actually uses his athleticism to get into the paint, good things happen. This is a guy shooting 60% from the floor from 16ft to the 3P line.
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Like Smart, since that 2-5 start we've seen Richardson really come around. A solid 10/4/1.5 on 47.6% shooting in his 8 games off the bench playing 27 minutes a night. He's another guy that has accepted his role and is making the most of it. He even said so last night
- On the Jaylen Brown front, it's good to see that he doesn't look like he's favoring his hammy or anything like that. His explosiveness is coming back, he's getting his legs under shit shot and that's a huge relief
He went just 6-11 and part of me wishes he got more looks, but he's starting to look more and more like the player he was pre-injury. Hamstrings are tricky so we need to be patient with him, and I think we can all agree that there should be no rush. He played just 27 minutes last night and that's fine by me. Jaylen's play is going to be crucial in the month of December, so I want him as fresh as possible.
- Pretty nice bounce back effort for Al Horford after two stinkers. I'll take 17/11 on 5-9 shooting and you should too
His three point shooting is still a work in progress (1-4), but he played with great energy to start this game and his minutes were relatively low as well at just 26. The biggest thing for Al is to continue to be that safety valve in the pick and pop offensively and then to hold his own on the other end. He did both in this game. If teams are going to continue to put so much pressure on Tatum, Horford is going to have so many open looks he won't know what to do with himself. If he can can continue to knock down his open looks, teams will have to adjust.
- Quick shoutout to both Kanter/Romeo off the bench. Enes has legit been awesome since Rob went out with his injury and then his cold, and Kanter has stepped right up and done what he does best. His work on the offensive glass was huge in the fourth quarter to help prevent a collapse, and for some reason teams are not attacking him in P&R as much defensively so he hasn't really been a huge negative on that end. Maybe that changes, but there's no denying that he's earned the minutes he's getting. He saw his opportunity and made the most of it.
The same is true for Romeo. His individual defense continues to get better and better as the games go on, he was active on the glass and was a +18 in his 25 minutes. The bench was ultimately the difference in this game and I'm not sure how many times we've been able to say that this year but boy was it fun to watch last night.
- Celts finished with 24 AST on 34 FGM. That's the type of ball movement you love to see. Less iso, more trusting your teammates, that's the good stuff.
- Call me surprised when we saw the Celts put up their best quarter of the game in the fourth quarter. Who saw that coming? The 29 points, the 46/40% shooting, only 2 TOs to go with some actual defense. The Raptors scored just 21 points on 36/14% over the final 12 minutes. I was waiting for the collapse to come and it never did. What a relief.
The Bad
- I'll say this though, the Celts cannot be this careless with the ball against any of the teams they are about to play in December. A total of 17 TOs is too many, Smart and Tatum had 8 of the 17 between the two of them and on nights where they are going to handle the ball a majority of the time, they need to be better about keeping those TOs down. You won't survive many games when the fast break battle is 27-7 against you, and a large portion of that was due to turnovers.
- The more we watch him play the more it's becoming clear that Scottie Barnes is going to torture this team for a long, long time. He's killed the Celts in all 3 of the games they've had, and last night it was a combination of his offensive rebounding and three point shooting. He's going to be so good you can already tell. It hasn't mattered who the Celts have thrown at him, he finds a way to produce.
- Despite the win, this team still didn't shoot all that well as a group. Just 41/35% splits as a team, their overall lack of shooting right now is still a big time concern. I can't remember the last time we saw the Celts shoot like 40% from three in a game. They were below 40% from the floor for a majority of this game too. The defense looks great and that's fine, but this offense is still extremely mid.
- I'm starting to think that Ime has broken the confidence of both Payton Pritchard and Aaron Nesmith. Nesmith was a DNP-CD which is fine because Richardson/Romeo were great, but Pritchard man, I don't get it. He's having the same sort of Year 2 slump that Grant had. The kid cannot make a bucket to save his life and you can tell he's pressing when he's on the floor. It's hard for Ime to give him minutes if he's going to continue to give them nothing once he's on the floor. Part of that is a lack of confidence in my opinion. He knows that if he misses a shot, he's probably coming out. We're not seeing the same care free flamethrower that shot over 40% from three last year and it's drastically impacted his game in a negative way.
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The Ugly
- I mean, what else can we put here besides Tatum's 2-16 (1-5) performance? After that nice little 4 game ride, we're back in a valley when it comes to Tatum's shooting. This is his last three
That comes out to 15.7/9.0/5.0 on 27/19% shooting. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to know that's nowhere CLOSE to good enough when it comes to scoring/shooting the basketball. They need their max player to play like a max player on a consistent basis. There are slumps, and then there's Tatum's first 20 games of the season. History tells us he'll turn it around, but at the same time we've never seen him be THIS bad shooting the basketball for THIS long. It's bizarre. While it's great he's finding other ways to impact a game, this team needs his scoring if they actually want to do anything this year. He's their best player and night in and night out his shooting slump is killing them offensively.
The frustrating part is a lot of these misses are on wide open looks and are rimming out. It's not like he's nowhere close with his jumper, but they aren't dropping. You can tell he's getting frustrated with it because how could he not? We have a 4 year sample of Tatum making the exact shots he can't seem to make to start this season. Don't ask me to explain it, it's simply bizarre.
With November now behind us, the Celts enter the most important month of their season. For all those people who say they need to play well against actual good teams, well we're about to find out how they do. The Bulls had a similar schedule in November and went 8-7. That's my expectation. I would love something like 9-6, but the goal is to avoid disaster and have your season pretty much be over by Christmas. If the Celts want to show us that they've truly turned things around, December is the month to do it.