Wild Card Drama, Cy Young Dark Horses & The Most Incredible Home Run Of The 2022 Season (MLB Round Up Blog)
We're coming off a big long Labor Day weekend which means there's some stuff to catch up. We've got about 4 weeks left in the regular season and shit is really starting to get tight around the league. Jake and I round it up on today's episode of Starting 9 but figured we should circle back and flush it out a little more in depth. So in that spirit let's get to the WILD CARD standings
AL
Some observations:
- The 3 AL Wild Card teams are absolutely rolling right now. All 3 playing some of the best baseball of their season with Tampa and Toronto looking like much better AL East squads than the Yankees.
- Seattle meanwhile has been 21-10 since trading for Luis Castillo. They've become a major threat and would be a nightmare matchup out of a successful 3-game Wild Card series with all of the days off MLB is giving the ALDS this fall
- Baltimore has lost just 2 series in the 2nd half and they're still 4.5 out with a couple weeks left. Good news = 8 of the 27 remaining games are against the Blue Jays. So they have their chances. Just kinda obvious that they can't afford to lose another series this year.
- For as good as the Rays have been, it kinda sucks to look at their last month. 29 games left: 9 vs. Blue Jays, 6 vs. Houston, 3 at Cleveland and 3 at Yankee stadium. So about 7 out of 10 games against playoff caliber teams when there's so much trash at the bottom of the league this time of year.
- Twins & White Sox are shit out of luck in the Wild Card
NL
- I debated opening with the NL East but realistically it's such a big division-race story I feel like we're gonna have some many opportunities next few weeks to zero in. The Braves are 1 game back. The Mets are relentless. Maybe one of the better battles in recent memory as each team seems to get better over time. No major setbacks. No flaws. Just two powerhouse teams in the midst of a slugfest for the rights to be massive NLCS underdogs vs. the Dodgers. We'll worry about that later.
- For now, it's a clear 3-dog race for the last two spots. Philly, San Diego and Milwaukee all grinding and now is the time I really bond with the Phillies and Padres fans. I've been overlooking Milwaukee my entire life. They make it so easy. Then they sneak up on you and cut your throat while you sleep.
- Don't believe me? We're talking about the same club that traded Josh Hader to the team ahead of them in the standings. That's beyond the threshold of using a real-life crystal ball. As if they were counting on him blowing saves, so they just moved those blown saves to the Padres and then leapfrog them as they pile up. Genius move if that's how they really put it together. Same time would be cool to see Hader sling 99 all over the strike zone again. No rush here.
- The Baby Backs are the best team in baseball nobody is talking about. 2023 is going to be a nasty year but that's far away so let's stay within ourselves.
Predictions:
- Yankees "win" the Wild Card with Toronto or Tampa surging to close the year
- White Sox win the Central (then get tossed in the Wild Card)
- Padres fade out of the picture while Milwaukee closes strong per usual
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- The Braves win the East which ends up hurting them because Scherzer and deGrom make quick work of the Wild Card, then Chris Bassit throws game 1 NLDS, Scherzer comes back for Game 2 and now everybody's fucked.
- People stopped talking about the Dodgers because it just makes it that much more obvious how much better they are than any other team. And so much that you could say the gap between the Dodgers and the 2nd best team in baseball is bigger than any other gap in pro sports right now. All 5 starters carry an ERA under 3.00 with an average around 2.40. Their staff leads MLB in hits allowed, walks allowed, runs allowed. The lineup is littered with All Stars and they've got the most successful manager through his first 1,000 games in MLB history.
When you put it like that, who really cares about the rest of the league?
Hopefully somebody because we got a lot of baseball left. Here's the biggest stuff going on to get you focused & sharp for the stretch run.
Pujols Will Hit 700
Bottom 8 of a 0-0 game. Runner on 2nd base and 1 out when Marmol pinch hits Albert. Just about everyone thought an intentional walk was inbound but that's not Ross's style. You don't walk the big fella in his last plate appearance against the Cubs. You pitch to him because he's earned the right to supersede traditional baseball strategy. And in that case, it's impossible not to tip your cap to everyone here. Pujols is grinding away at one of the coolest record chases of my lifetime. Even though he ruined me for so long, so many times. I'm happy to see him go out like this, mostly because it means he's 100% going out. Now hit the next 5 and let me start the healing process finally. It's been 21 years forchrissakes.
The Best Players In The NL Are All Cardinals
Not really an extended topic here. Just know that since the All Star break (or around that time), 4 of the 5 best hitters in the NL as measured by Fangraphs wRC+ are on the Cardinals: (1) Pujols, (2) Goldy, (3) Nolan and (5) LARS NOOTBAR (which should be available in some kinda candy form this December in most St. Louis markets)
Zac Gallen Scoreless Streak
41.1 scoreless and all of them have happened right after Jake and I interviewed him about his amazing season. It's a hilarious and insightful conversation for a number of reasons. He talked in-depth about how he has to work to get fired up and focused because he's so naturally chill. He was working on getting more fired up on the mound. Not on his changeup or slider release or some of the traditional talking points. No Zac Gallen just needed to channel his inner bulldog a little more. Maybe that means different music or breathing exercises to increase his naturally bottomed-out heart rate. Legitimately LOL funny to think that's the lynchpin behind this historic run.
At the time of typing this, Zac has a 0.61 ERA in the 2nd half through 9 GS. The MLB record for 2nd half ERA is 0.75 and currently belongs to Starting 9 host me Jake Arrieta. Pretty cool moment on the show today getting Jake's take on Zac's pursuit of the record books.
This Was The Yankees Lineup Yesterday
… I … don't know… Good Luck down the stretch
Aaron Judge Is My MVP
Shohei this. Shohei that. Blah blah blah. He's the biggest freak in the game and all that stuff. I don't even know how to talk about Shohei appropriately because there's no benchmark. He went to Mike Trout's home and declared himself owner and captain and alpha male of all statistical anomalies. Nobody saw that coming and it's certainly admirable that he's basically Mookie Betts + Shane McClanahan in one player.
HOWEVA - the Yankees would be in last place without Aaron Judge. I mean that = the Yankees are in 1st place because of Aaron Judge and they would be in last place without him. To me that seals up the MVP race fair and square. If there were more similarities on that front, we could get into more player A vs. player B.
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But to me - you can't reasonably say Ohtani is the slam dunk MVP when Judge is leading MLB in runs, homers, rbi's, OBP, slugging, OPS, OPS+, total bases, wRC+, fWAR, bWAR, ISO (by 40%), wOBA and basically anything else of value you can put together. And that's before we talk about the soft stuff that should absolutely DOMINATE the narrative surrounding the best player on a team 17 games under .500.
Oneil Cruz Can Hit 1,000 Home Runs
We talk a lot about Oneil Cruz on Starting 9 because Jake just got one of his rookie cards but also because Jake thinks he has the potential to be on of the greatest power hitters of all time. It's hard to disagree with that take when you see the kinda damage he does. 116mph at 16 degrees launch angle is legitimately a line drive like 15 feet off the ground. There's a lot of places his game can go - almost all of which are up. One stark path is leaning into the power and trying to smoke 60 a year. That approach is risky and comes with a lot of tradeoffs, but he has the skillset and build to do it.
Triston Casas Is The Next Big Thing
Maybe that's not true. Maybe it is. Time will tell.
For now, it's important to recognize that we're big proponents of grounding on Starting 9. I had never heard of it until this week and apparently it's just about getting connected to nature and finding your balance? I have yet to ingest the kind of hallucinogen where that makes full sense to me but it sure sounds like something I'd enjoy.
Either way, Triston Casas is a different guy with BIG power that Red Sox fans are eager to see everyday. Maybe this means a full time move for Dalbec to SS with Xander hitting the market this winter. Don't kill me for that.
Juan Soto Since Getting Traded….
Soto has an .833 OPS since getting traded which is very good but obviously not Outstanding the way the Padres anticipated. Meanwhile Joey Meneses is lighting it up in his absence and right now is where you can really make some grandiose point. I won't. But you could.
Point is Joey Meneses is still a big league baseball player. On that alone he's capable of getting hot and hammering baseballs. Otherwise he'd be changing oil or teaching social studies or some shit. He's not. He's a professional baseball player with over 5,500 plate appearances across the minor leagues and Japan. At 30 years old he's finally made the big leagues. So no, I won't use Juan Soto's lack of homeruns and RBI's over the last 26 games to diminish the respect I have for what Joey Meneses has done in his first 124 MLB plate appearances after all the shit he had to shovel to get there. The guy is hitting .339/.371/.568 for a last place team. I'll get behind that effort.
As for Soto, it's absurd to look at an .833 OPS and be upset. But that's how good he is. There's absolutely a heater coming in the next 4 weeks.
Speaking Of Heaters…
Carlos Rodon leads the NL with 201 strikeouts in 157.1 innings alongside the best FIP at 2.34. For novices = FIP is a number that measures strikeouts, walks and homeruns. Basically the 3 things the pitcher has entire control over. More strikeouts and less walks and HR's means lower FIP and Rodon has the best one out of every starting pitcher in the NL.
Crazy to think the White Sox didn't even make a qualifying offer because he had Dead Arm or some shit. Now Rodon can opt out of his 2nd year and hit the market at about $20-25M annually. Scott Boras does it again.
Bo Bichette Is That Dude
He's 13-31 over his last week with 4 homers and a 1.400 OPS. The Blue Jays are 6-1 over that stretch and are making up huge ground in the division. Win or lose it at the end, they're capturing the momentum you need heading into October which is much more important than limping in like some other clubs. Good time to be a Blue Jays fan.
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But Nothing Compares To Being An Astros Fan
Astros fans have it so good. The club will literally do anything to win. Anything. And meanwhile they draft, develop and raise their own core that has no end in sight. Correa leaves well here comes Jeremy Pena. Springer to the Blue Jays? Don't worry because Yordan Alvarez is a generational middle-of-the-order bat on the league minimum. Major injuries to the starting pitching? Don't worry here comes 5th round draft pick from WAYNE STATE, Hunter Brown. Look familiar?
So fuckin creepy.
We'll talk about it this week on Starting 9. There's a fresh episode out right now with all the MLB round up shit you need coming out of Labor Day. Subscribe here to keep this train moving. Jake and I very much appreciate the support.