Now That The Dust Has Settled, Let's Talk About How Donovan Mitchell Can Help The Cavs

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There's really nothing like the moment we all get that initial Shams/Woj bomb notification during the NBA offseason. By my calculations, there were 4 instances this summer where you truly looked at your phone and said "What the hell?". Maybe you had to read the tweet a couple of times to make sure it was their actual account and not a troll. These are the 4 moments at least for me that this happened with

- Dejounte Murray traded to the Hawks

- Rudy Gobert traded to the Wolves

- Kevin Durant demanded a trade

- Donovan Mitchell traded to the Cavs

As we know, not all Shams/Woj bombs are created equal. For example, when we all got the Jalen Brunson news that he was headed to the Knicks, that surprised a total of zero (0) people. While it may not have been a shock that guys like Gobert/Mitchell were traded because everyone knew the Jazz brought in Danny Ainge to rebuild, their eventual destinations were certainly a surprise. Same thing with Dejounte.

So now that the dust has settled on this latest "oh shit" moment involving Donovan Mitchell, I wanted to come back to the blog and dive into this trade to see how he might actually help a Cavs team that looks to be ascending. It's an intriguing fit and sort of changes the vibe of this Cavs team from a group that was maybe a year early last year on their sudden rise before injuries to a team that has sort of moved into a "win now" mode. Maybe you want to call that being a "contender", maybe you don't want to go that crazy and instead would prefer to talk about them as a team that could be playing for homecourt come the postseason, but there's no denying that adding an All Star talent like Donovan Mitchell is a big deal that will clearly have a pretty big impact on their season.

The first thing you need to do is understand who Donovan Mitchell is as a player. He's one of the most offensively gifted players at his position in the entire league, and is someone who I would classify as a volume scorer. Here's what that looks like

Of all NBA guards, Mitchell was 8th in the NBA in scoring at 25.9 a game and his 20.5 FGA were 6th, just trailing Ja Morant slightly (20.6) which makes sense since both were the #1 scoring option on those teams. If you're a #1 option in 2021-22 at the guard spot, that's generally where you lived in terms of your FGA. Luka, Kyrie, Booker, Morant, Trae Young, and DeMar were all over 20.0 FGA and all were the #1 option. When it comes to Donovan Mitchell, of all the guards who took that many shots he was the least efficient finishing the year with 44.8/35.3% splits. Not terrible of course, but you're going to get some 7-21 games from him here and there. 

When you look at where Mitchell thrives offensively

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you see a player that is really really good at getting into the paint and finishing at a high level while being respectable from three. This should help the Cavs immediately improve from their 11th spot last year in terms of points in the paint. We saw the Grizzlies thrive last year with the approach of being nails defensively as a unit while also dominating when it came to scoring in the paint (led the league at 57.6 points), largely due to everything Ja does in that zone. 

Well, the Cavs at the 5th best defense in the NBA last year and are now adding an elite scorer who thrives at getting to and scoring in the paint. That's good.

When it comes to offensive fit, there are parts of Mitchell's game that I think will blend in well with what the Cavs already do. Take isolation for example. The Cavs ranked in the 65th percentile as a team in iso sets. That's not too bad. But one thing the playoffs showed us was when things slow down and defenses hone in on Darius Garland, there wasn't much else to help in terms of shot creation. We saw what relying on Caris LeVert to be that guy ended up looking like. If you forgot, it wasn't pretty as he went a combined 9-25 in their two play in losses. If you're a team looking to improve your shot creation, Donovan Mitchell isn't a bad choice.

Last season, Mitchell ranked in the 82nd percentile in isolation sets. He shot 44% and put up 1.04 points per possession which is solid. In the postseason his frequency jumped from 9% to 14% and he still found success averaging 1.13 points per iso possession. The point is, the Cavs now have a much more reliable shot creator to play next to Garland so defenses can't just focus on one guy, and they now no longer have to rely on a steaky/inefficient scorer like LeVert when that happens. 

Given how the Cavs are constructed, you see a decent amount of P&R sets. When you have elite bigs like Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, that makes sense right? Allen can catch lobs with the best of em, Mobley can seemingly do everything whether it's finishing or maybe finding a cutter off a short roll, so having guards who also thrive in P&R is pretty important. Last year Garland was OK, ranking in the 67th percentile as a P&R ball handler. Donovan Mitchell? He ranked in the 87th percentile. We know he can play next to an elite roll man since he just did it with Gobert, and now the Cavs have the opportunity to pick their poison when it comes to who initiates that set.

If it's Mitchell, you could have Garland as a spot up shooter (35.7% from three). If it's Garland, then you have Mitchell as a potential spot up guy (34.6%). Both present a good amount of offensive gravity, so having one guy let's say in the corner or on the wing while running P&R will open up things even more for Allen/Mobley on the rolls since guys can't cheat in. 

While the Cavs wait for Rubio to come back from his ACL injury, you also can't overlook what this means for their lineup versatility. The second Darius Garland stepped off the floor, things got pretty ugly, especially offensively

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Well, now the Cavs can stagger the two and not have to worry as much about a severe offensive drop off. This is an element that the Cavs roster did not have last season once Rubio went down and that's why it always felt like the Cavs hit a roadblock whenever Garland went to the bench. By eliminating that issue, they not only become so much tougher to guard but they also limit the chances that their offense goes to shit and they simply can't score. 

Of course, there are defensive concerns when it comes to Mitchell, but that's not a physical thing it's more an effort thing. He has the frame and the quickness to be at least passable defensively as long as he gives a shit. I also think the Cavs will be able to absorb it given their rim protection with Allen/Mobley in a similar way the Jazz did with Gobert, so I'm not too concerned about that end of the floor. 

So when you add it all up, you can see why the Cavs were willing to pay the Danny Ainge price and bring in a player like Mitchell. He fits with what they like to do offensively, he gives them another elite offensive shot creator to help make them tougher to guard as a team, he helps prevent an offensive drop off when Garland sits which absolutely killed the Cavs last year, and he's locked up long term on his current deal. His style matches their style and given that he can be impactful both on and off ball make him a pretty good pairing next to Garland/Rubio etc. 

It'll be fascinating to see how it all comes together, but as of now on paper? It feels like it's going to be a smashing success.