Derek Carr Is A Historically Bad Home Favorite: Stats And Trends For NFL Week 2
Welcome back to the Stats Lab.
Every Sunday morning during the NFL season, I'll be blogging the stats I used on Barstool Sports Advisors that week, plus some other ones I found from my research for each game we covered. Whenever I pour through the data each week, I try to separate the meaningful trends from the nonsensical ones. For example, a team with a really good ATS record against a specific division (not their own)? Probably doesn't matter that much. Teams are always changing, and there's nothing that suggests all the same teams in a division play a certain way or anything. But a coach being really good off a bye week? That says something. A team covering a lot as a road dog? Probably means they're being consistently undervalued. League wide trends that hold steady across hundreds of matchups spanning years and years? Those are gold. So you have to look at every stat individually and decide if it matters.
Below is my entire cheat sheet I use for Advisors each week. Lines courtesy of the Barstool Sportsbook at the time of Advisors taping (Wednesday morning). I'll also be keeping track of my record each week.
Last Week: 2-3
YTD: 2-3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (1-0, 0-1 ATS)
1 PM on FOX
TB -3
T 44.5
You're going to hear a lot about how Brady is 0-4 against the Saints these last two regular seasons. But I want to look at the Bucs team total over of 24 points. They scored just 19 last week, and Brady has never gone back to back games scoring less than 24 points as a Buc. In fact, in his last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points, he’s averaging 37 points. And as for the "struggles against Saints defense" narrative, he actually averages 27 PPG in New Orleans over the last two seasons (including the playoff game). The Saints defense just gave up 26 points to the Marcus Mariota led Falcons. I think Brady and the Bucs bounce back and eclipse 24 points.
The Stats Say: Bucs team total over 24 points
Miami Dolphins (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Baltimore Ravens (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1 PM on CBS
BAL -3.5
T 44.5
This stat is for all the TuAnon people out there. Tua thrives as an underdog. In his career, he's 7-3-1 ATS when getting points. And as a dog of more than 3 points, he’s undefeated against the spread at 5-0-1 (4-2 SU). Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson struggles as a home favorite. He's just 8-13 as a home favorite of more than 3 points for his career.
The Stats Say: Dolphins
New England Patriots (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0, 1-0 ATS)
1:00 PM on CBS
NE -1.5
T 40.5
Neither of these offenses inspire a whole lot of confidence and the stats back that up. Patriots road unders are always a solid bet, going 33-16 since 2016. And the under is also 9-3 in the Steelers last 12 September games. Points could be hard to come by in this one.
The Stats Say: Under
Arizona Cardinals (0-1, 0-1 ATS) @ Las Vegas Raiders (0-1, 0-1 ATS)
4:25 PM on CBS
LV -5.5
T 52
Kliff Kingsbury is historically a great bet as a road dog. He's 13-3-2 ATS in that spot for his career. Meanwhile, Derek Carr is awful as a home favorite. He's 7-13 ATS as a home favorite in his career. And only once in his entire 8 year career has he covered as a home favorite of 4 or more points. Stunning.
The Stats Say: Cardinals
Chicago Bears (1-0, 1-0 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (0-1, 0-1 ATS)
8:20 PM on NBC
GB -10
T 43
Pick basically any stat you want about how much Aaron Rodgers owns the city of Chicago. He's 21-7 ATS versus them in his career. 10-4 ATS at home. He's 25-12 ATS in divisional home games. The Packers are also 11-3 ATS following a loss. And this is just a classic bounce back game. Week 2 teams coming off of a double-digit loss in Week 1 are 36-23-1 ATS in the last 10 years.
The Stats Say: Packers
Tommy Stats Parlay Of The Week
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