5 Strategies For Betting College Football This Weekend
Although I was not hired to be a gambling personality, I do love to bet on sports. Especially college football. I think it's far and away the most fun sport to bet on. There's so many games to choose from and the disparity in teams is so large. You get spreads anywhere from even money to 60 points. I spend a lot of time trying to figure out ways to beat the system. Almost nobody makes money gambling in the long term. People will get hot for periods of time, but in the end, Vegas always comes out on top. There's a reason their casinos look like the Taj Mahal.
But if there is a way to beat the system, I am determined to find it. Every week I go back and forth on how I should bet my money. There's a million different ways to do it. Here are some strategies that I like to use. Keep in mind, none of these have worked yet. But maybe things will change this weekend (probably not).
For this exercise, I'm going to have a bankroll of $500. In real life, my bankroll is closer to $100. When I bet, I bet small amounts of money, because I am poor. I will not be shamed for it. But the numbers in this blog will look nicer if I pretend I have $500 to burn.
I'm not going to pretend that I'm betting all of these games. I can't afford this. This is just an exercise to see which of these 5 strategies will perform the best. I'm going to keep a record of how each strategy does, and at the end of the year we will see which one has the best return. But more importantly, we'll see which one is more fun to root for.
Strategy #1: Giant Money Line Favorites
I dabbled with this over the summer. Betting giant favorites is fun because you can brag about having a 20-3 record. In reality you'll probably be down a couple units, but that 20-3 record looks real nice at first glance.
Let's pick 5 games on the Barstool Sportsbook and bet $100 a game. This is not a way to make big bucks, but in theory it could be an easy way to make a quick $50 or so.
Arkansas St @ Memphis: Memphis (-625)
$100 to win $16.00
Fresno St @ 7 USC: USC (-560)
$100 to win $18.00
20 Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech: Ole Miss (-770)
$100 to win $13.00
Eastern Michigan @ Arizona St: Arizona St (-1430)
$100 to win $7.00
Liberty @ 19 Wake Forest: Wake Forest (-910)
$100 to win $11.00
Boy does that feel fucking stupid to type out. Luckily there are rarely big upsets in college football. I thought about going crazy and picking games like Florida (-5000) to win $4.00, but that's even stupider. But this feels like an easy way to make $65.
Strategy #2: Move the Line Overs
Everyone knows that overs are the most fun bets to cheer for. What makes them even more fun is when you can lower them. Most people do this with teasers, but the Barstool Sportsbook offers a "Move the Line" feature. Of course, you odds will move the wrong direction. You'll have to hit 4 out of 5 to make a profit. I'll tell you right now, this is not the strategy I expect to perform the best, but I think it will be fun to cheer for.
Mississippi St @ LSU : Over 44.5 (-305)
$100 to win $33
BYU @ Oregon : Over 49 (-315)
$100 to win $32
Oklahoma @ Nebraska : Over 57.5 (-335)
$100 to win $30
Purdue @ Syracuse : Over 51.5 (-295)
$100 to win $34
Florida St @ Louisville : Over 48.5 (-295)
$100 to win $34
Strategy #3 Low Team Total Overs
Here we will specifically look at team totals for the underdogs in games that should be a blowout. They're insanely low. Sometimes they're even less than 7 points. They have pretty good odds too. Your team just has to hit on one or two big plays and you can cover. This will be fun to cheer for because the game will never be dead. Especially if the favorite ends up pulling all of their starters. I predict that this is going to be the most effective strategy.
Nevada @ Iowa : Nevada over 7.5 pts (+116)
$100 to win $116
Texas St @ Baylor : Texas St over 10.5 pts (-105)
$100 to win $96
UConn @ +4 Michigan : UConn over 6.5 pts (-118)
$100 to win $85
Louisiana Tech @ Clemson : Louisiana Tech over 9.5 pts (-122)
$100 to win $82
UL-Monroe @ 2 Alabama : UL-Monroe over 6.5 pts (-112)
$100 to win $90
Strategy 4: 1st Quarter Unders
Oftentimes, it takes teams a little while to get going. Even games that end up having 60+ points scored, sometimes start out extremely slow. I'm betting on that to happen here. I hate cheering for an under all game long, but I can stomach it for a quarter. If we can just start the game with a couple long drives that end in field goals, these bets should cash.
22 Penn State @ Auburn : 1Q under 10.5
$100 to win $65
20 Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech : 1Q under 14.5
$100 to win $60
12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : 1Q under 13.5
$100 to win $90
California @ Notre Dame : 1Q under 7.5
$100 to win $87
Mississippi St @ LSU : 1Q under 11.5
$100 to win $88
Strategy #5: Long Shot Parlays
This strategy isn't unique, but it's the strategy I go with most often, so I have to include it. I usually regret it. It always seems like a great idea, because you feel like you have juice on games all across the board. Except by 1pm you already have 1 dead dog loser that fucks over your entire bet, and you have nothing left to cheer for. However, if you hit just one of them you win big. If you end up hitting the first few legs of one, there's nothing more exciting than cheering for that last game. The decision to hedge or not to hedge is always fun as well. Shoutout Jersey Jerry.
Let's do 5 separate 5-leg $100 parlays to close out this blog.
Parlay 1
Florida St @ Louisville : Louisville ML (+116) - Friday game
22 Penn St @ Auburn : Penn State ML (-159)
Western Kentucky @ Indiana : Indiana ML (-278)
Purdue @ Syracuse : Syracuse (-1.5)
6 Oklahoma @ Nebraska : Nebraska (+11)
$100 to win $1,637.67
Parlay 2
13 Miami @ 24 Texas A&M : Miami (+6)
Mississippi St @ LSU : Mississippi St ML (-139)
UL Monroe @ 2 Alabama : Alabama (-49.5)
Kansas @ Houston : Kansas (+9)
Vanderbilt @ Northern Illinois : Vanderbilt ML (+110)
$100 to win $2,496.62
Parlay 3
12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : Oregon ML (-175)California @ Notre Dame : California (+11)
UConn @ 4 Michigan : UConn (+48)
6 Oklahoma @ Nebraska : Oklahoma ML (-500)
1 Georgia @ South Carolina : Georgia (-25)$100 to win $1,214.12
Parlay 4
Western Kentucky @ Indiana : Western Kentucky (+6.5)
22 Penn State @ Auburn : Auburn ML (+128)
Kansas @ Houston : Houston ML (-315)
Mississippi St @ LSU : LSU ML (+112)
13 Miami @ Texas A&M : 24 Texas A&M (-6)
$100 to win $2,239.42
Parlay 5
Florida St @ Louisville : Florida State ML (-143) - Friday game
12 BYU @ 25 Oregon : BYU (+3.5)
1 Georgia @ South Carolina : South Carolina (+25)
Rutgers @ Temple : Temple (+17.5)
Purdue @ Syracuse : Purdue ML (+100)
$100 to win $2,293.88
I'm going to do this every week for the rest of the year and see how each strategy works out for me. If they aren't all losers I'm going to be shocked.