The Final MVP Straw Poll Is Out And Things Could Not Be Closer Entering The Final Weeks Of The Season
Are you sick of the MVP debate yet? Well tough luck because with about a week or so to go in the NBA regular season, absolutely nothing is settled. Farrrrrr from it. We know this because of the latest and final ESPN MVP Straw Poll. As a reminder for everyone, here's how the poll works
To gauge where the MVP race stands with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season, ESPN asked 100 media members to participate in an informal poll that mimics the NBA's postseason award voting process.
To make the balloting as realistic as possible, there were at least two voters from each of the league's 28 markets, along with a cross section of national and international reporters.
As with the NBA's official voting at the end of season, voters were asked to submit a five-player ballot, and results were tabulated using the league's scoring system:
• 10 points for a first-place vote / • 7 points for second-place / • 5 points for third-place / • 3 points for fourth-place / • 1 point for fifth-place
It may not shake out this way, but it's basically the closest thing we have to the actual MVP voting, so it's a good barometer of where things stand. They release them a few times throughout the year and it evolves as the season unfolds, but none have been as close as the final poll. Let's have a look
OK, there's a lot to digest here.
First, it does not appear that voters held Embiid sitting out against Jokic against him, as this voting covered Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Right off the bat, I think everyone notices the same thing. Joel Embiid has a 2 point overall lead over Jokic while having fewer first-place votes. Where have we seen that before? If you were curious, here's how things stood at the second version of this poll, which came out at the All Star Break
As you can see, Embiid made a massive well-deserved run given what he did on the court from the deadline until today. We went from a blowout race 1.5 months ago to one of the tightest MVP races in decades. That's pretty fun, even if the discourse around it is still toxic as hell, at least we're set up for a wild finish.
I can't even imagine what happens if Embiid wins the MVP while getting fewer 1st place votes. Would that feel more like a "fine stop crying, here's your MVP" move to you if he got it by having more 2nd and 3rd place votes? That may not be fair to a guy who is having a truly dominant season, but I can see that being the narrative.
It was a little shocking to me that there was such a gap in 1st place votes between Embiid/Jokic and Giannis. I mean, his production is there, the defense is there, and he's on the team with the best current record in the NBA. Only 18 first place votes seem a little strange given all that. I get his efficiency has regressed a little bit, especially around the rim, but I'm not sure that warrants such a gap like this. I personally considered things much closer, and that's why all the H2H meetings between these guys in the last week of the season are so important. I did not expect a 100+ point difference. If Bucks fans are pissed, I get it.
Outside of the top 3, there were also some interesting results. For starters, I have no idea why anyone voted for Tatum 2nd and 3rd. It's OK to say he played his way out of the top 3 for MVP. I dunno if that was Bill Simmons or whoever, but it wasn't me. If I'm sitting here telling you that Tatum doesn't deserve top 2 or top 3 votes, that should tell you something. He's had an awesome year, but let's not get silly. On that same note, I do see Jaylen Brown's name on this list. Why does that matter? Not because I think he should get MVP votes, but this sure does help his case to make All NBA as a forward. Considering how massive that is going to end up being in terms of his future, I love seeing him top 10.
The good times keep rolling for the Kings with two guys on the list. First they clinched their playoff spot, now they are getting some MVP love. That's the power of the Beam baby.
I feel like Luka being where he is, especially over someone like SGA, is more name recognition than anything else. Are we sure Luka is having a better season than SGA? The Mavs are about to enter the Lottery and their numbers aren't all that different. What this voting does tell us though is SGA is most likely a lock for All NBA (I would have him 1st team) which is pretty cool for him.
Why is JJJ on this list? If we're talking DPOY, OK I get it. But who in their right mind votes him for MVP? Even if it's the 5th spot, what are we doing?
Looking ahead, there are some pretty big head to head games that should ultimately help decide how this shakes out. Giannis plays the Celtics tonight, and Embiid on Sunday. Embiid plays the Celtics on Tuesday. Jokic has PHX/GS left on their schedule, and now that KD is back and the Warriors game is in their building where they are great, are both big games that could help solidify his case.
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With seeding still wide open as well, we have no idea how teams are going to approach the final wekk, especially when it comes to B2B games. Could sitting one of those cost someone the MVP? Time will tell, but with a week to go it's kind of cool that we have no idea who is going to end up with the award.