The Celtics Blew Their Chance At History And A Spot In The Finals And Have No One To Blame But Themselves
(as is the unfortunate tradition, make sure you hit play and have this going through the duration of this blog)
Pain. That's all I really feel at the moment and all I've really felt since the buzzer hit 0.0 last night. On a night when the Boston Celtics were on the brink of history and a return to the NBA Finals where all they had to do was win a game at home, we instead got one of if not the worst offensive performances of their season. If that sounds familiar, it's because it happened a handful of times in this series, and that is why their season is over.
As we saw in the first three games, it's very hard to beat the Heat if you play little defense, turn the ball over, and then also miss all your shots. The Celts got in that 0-3 hole in large part because as a team they shot 29% from deep compared to the Heat's 47.8%. Add in 45 TOs in 3 games, and that's how you get in that type of pickle.
Over the next 3 games, things flipped. The Celts started to defend, holding MIA to 99, 97, and 103 points. They took care of the ball, and the shooting had the same sort of split, just flipped. In Game's 3-6, the Celts got back up to 13.7 3PM on 34%, while MIA dropped back down to 10 3PM on 36%.
In Game 7, with the season and history on the line, things swayed back to what we saw in the first 3 games outside of the points allowed. The Heat finished Game 7 shooting 14-28 from deep (50%). Every big shot they needed, they made. The Celts, finished 9-42, which is 21.4%. This was coming off the 7-35 (20.0%) performance in Game 6. That 21.4% matched the lowest shooting percentage we saw during the Celts regular season (loss to NYK), and guess what they went in that game? 9-42.
Deep down, the fear I think most of us had was that the way the Celts kept fucking around in these playoff series would come back to bite them. When Derrick White made that play with 0.2 left on the clock, part of me thought they were going to get away with it. As we learned last night, that would not be the case. As bad as losing a Game 7 in that fashion may have been, it's games like this that reiterate how important it is to close out games when you have a chance. Blowing both Games 1 & 2 when you had double digit leads in the fourth quarter is going to bite you in the ass every time. Especially Game 2 when the Celts were up by 9 with 6 minutes left. You leave yourself open to a Game 7 where anything can happen, and for the first time in about 6 years, things didn't swing the Celts way and their season is over because of it.
As much as this may feel like a Celts choke (because it largely is), the Miami Heat took this series. They proved to be the better team on the court, which matters a whole lot more than being the better team on paper. In these 7 games, the Heat had 3 games in which they shot over 50% from three. To go on the road and take 3 games, including a Game 7 after the way they lost Game 6, I mean that's big time stuff. They earned this trip to the Finals right from the start of this series, and they deserve proper credit for that.
And just like that, everything is over. The dream of a miracle comeback, the pursuit of Banner 18, all of it. There are some rather big questions for Brad to figure out in the coming months, but as always before we get into that shit we have to talk about last night, as painful as it might be.
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The Good
- I don't even know what to put in this section. When you get blown out on your home floor and score the lowest point total of your entire season, what could possibly fit? What does any of it matter?
Derrick White was really the only thing that was slightly positive in my opinion, so that was cool I guess
But really this is just grasping at straws. We don't have to waste time here. We can dive into the real meat of this game in the following two sections.
The Bad
- Let's start with the obvious. Things changed just 20 seconds into this game
In basketball, you're always one play away from your fortunes changing. That's why it's important you don't blow winnable games, because all it takes is one stepped on foot and your season is changed. For something like this to happen to Tatum on the very first possession of the game, I mean I don't even know how to explain it. That's just some all time shit luck.
We've seen Tatum get banged up before, and he usually shakes it off. His durability is one of his greatest strengths. So when he stayed down and then very clearly couldn't put weight on his ankle, you knew it was truly fucked. It changed not just how aggressive he was offensively and what he was capable of, but also defensively. The way Tatum defended in Games 3-6 was a big reason why the Celts got back in the series, but last night he simply couldn't move the same way and the Heat took advantage.
For the Celts to win this game, they were going to need a big Tatum night. Maybe not 51 like in Game 7 against the Sixers, but he basically needed to hit his averages. Somehow he gutted out 42 minutes, but 14 points on 5-13 shooting simply wasn't enough, but who could blame the guy considering he could barely walk. That's what makes last night so frustrating. If the Celts go down swinging with a healthy Tatum, so be it. To have that taken away just 20 seconds into the game makes me want to put my head in my oven. Of all the times for a player who never gets hurt to get hurt, I mean god dammit.
- I'm not sure if Tatum's early injury made the rest of the roster panic or something, but from that moment on everyone outside of White was pretty brutal in their minutes. This was not a situation where the Celts blew a lead late with a bunch of guys playing well. No no, this was a case where they essentially got their ass kicked wire to wire
The Garden was as energized as I can ever remember seeing. Everything was set up for the Celts as long as they found a way to get off to a good start, the place was going to explode. But when the Heat started 2-11 and the Celts couldn't establish any sort of initial separation, we probably should have known what was coming. Somehow, the Celts shot worse.
Things shifted right around the 5:46 mark with the Celtics up 3 and Malcolm Brogdon came in for Marcus Smart. About a minute later at the 4:11 mark with the Celtics still up 11-8, Jayson Tatum headed to the bench as well. While that was a little early for him, it's not a surprise given what happened earlier.
The Heat would take the lead just a few possessions later on a Max Strus 3PM to go up 13-11, and from that moment on the Celtics never even tied the game. In the first stint of Grant and Brogdon off the bench, they were a -15 in their 7 minutes. Brogdon also playing hurt ended up making a real impact as well, and in his 7 minutes it was hard to stomach his 0-3 (0-2), when they were all either clean looks or layups. I give him props for trying to gut it out, but the fact of the matter is since his injury, Brogdon simply didn't have it
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It's not his fault he got hurt, but the team clearly needs his offense. It's part of what made them so good during the year, and that offense was a huge reason why they got past the Sixers. If there's a reason Game 7 felt a lot like last year's Finals, that's in part because the guy Brad brought in to solve some of those offensive droughts was basically unplayable after getting hurt. The fact that Brogdon went all year with solid health only to get hurt at this point of the season is devastating.
- When the Celts lose to the Heat, you can usually bank on a few things. Being careless with the basketball is certainly high on that list. Let's just review the entire series shall we?
Game 1: 15 TOs / 22 points off TOs / Loss
Game 2: 15 TOs / 20 points off TOs / Loss
Game 3: 15 TOs / 18 points off TOs / Loss
Game 4: 10 TOs / 14 points off TOs / Win
Game 5: 10 TOs / 19 points off TOs / Win
Game 6: 12 TOs / 12 points off TOs / Win
Game 7: 15 TOs / 19 points off TOs / Loss
There's your series right there folks. This is no different from what we saw last year when it comes to ball security and points off TOs. That helped the Heat finish with a 17-8 fastbreak point advantage which obviously proved to be pretty costly. While Jaylen had over half himself, he wasn't alone when it came to dumb decisions with the basketball.
There was Tatum getting his pocket picked by Haywood Highsmith. There was Smart throwing these passes
basically, the Celts played dumb as shit and ultimately paid the price. That's what happens in a Game 7. You need to be as close to perfect as possible in this department, and the Celts were the exact opposite. They were careless.
The annoying part is the Celts actually did a decent job of forcing early Bam turnovers to start this game, but their inability to capitalize off them early is what kept MIA alive. On the other end, the Heat made the Celts pay for almost every one of their turnovers.
- The Celts 15 points in the first quarter (26/0%) were the fewest points they scored in a quarter this entire postseason. It matched the 3rd lowest of their season overall (a couple 13 point quarters in December and January). Their 0-10 start from deep in the opening frame was the first time all season they went a 1st quarter without a single make.
Their 84 point total was the first time all season they did not at least break 90.
For all that to happen in a Game 7, at home, I mean I don't even know what to say. Don't worry, it gets more excruciating.
- Last night was the first time in the Tatum/Brown era that they lost 3 times at home in a playoff series. In 6 years together, that had never happened. It was only the 2nd time of this era that the Celts lost a series once they got to 3 wins.
In these entire playoffs, when the Celts held a team to 103 points or fewer, they were 8-0. That means last night was the first time this team lost a game when they did that. I'm sick just typing that.
- While Derrick White was doing his best to bring this team back, the final 50 seconds of the 3rd quarter was in my mind the breaking point of this game. After a couple of Tatum FTs with 52 seconds left, Jimmy Butler drove baseline and found Caleb Martin for a dagger 3PM
The guy was automatic all night, so the fact that he made the shot wasn't that surprising. We all knew that was going in. The unfortunate part was Jimmy Butler was clearly out of bounds
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That's a huge play that took things from 7 points with the ball, to now down 10 with the ball.
A few moments later after some White FTs cut it back down to 8, we had another Caleb Martin bucket
which came via a pretty clear dribbling violation right in front of Tony Brothers. It wasn't called, he made the bucket, and you could feel the wind come out of the entire arena. It was almost as if the Celts were shell-shocked after it happened, and I say that because they immediately opened the 4th quarter allowing a 7-0 run and that was that. Game over.
I keep stressing it, but that's because it's true. That sequence is why you cannot fuck around earlier in a series. A play here or a play there in a Game 7 changes everything. You allow for the potential of this kind of thing to happen when you don't take care of your business earlier in the series. I don't care that Tony Brothers did Tony Brothers shit in that spot. I expect that. What makes me mad is that the Celts were even in that position in the first place. That's a Celtics problem, not an officiating problem.
- After being so good in Games 5 & 6 to help even force this Game 7, we did not get Good Marcus Smart in this game. He finished 4-10 (1-6), didn't get to the line once, and while most of his 3PA were open and off good ball movement, we did see some poor decisions. You saw the passes above, but there was also this 3PA
That was the type of shot that Smart has basically eliminated from his arsenal this postseason. Everything about that possession stinks. He was the one that pushed the ball up the floor (good). He didn't force anything that wasn't there (good), but then as soon as everyone else made their way down the floor, he decided to take that 3PA with 17 seconds left on the clock. No passes. No movement, nothing. That may as well have been a TO in my book. Then came the Brogdon missed layup and Martin 3PM and the Heat were off and running.
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To me, this was a prime example of not valuing possessions. You can't do that in a game like this, even if the score is close at that point. This is sort of how the Celts played all night, they did not play smart, and when you don't do that you lose.
The Ugly
- It's not hard to see why the Celts season is over when you look at how they shot the ball in this series. It's pretty jarring for a team that was lights out all year and shot the ball great against the Sixers.
In losses: 44/27% with 10.0 3PM
In wins: 48/34% with 13.7 3PM
Yes, they won Game 6 despite going 7-35, but that was because of a prayer with 0.2 seconds left. The Celts ended this series going 16-77 (20.8%) over the final two games.
The Heat? They finished 28-58 (48.3%).
It doesn't really matter what you do if you're going to get destroyed like that from behind the line. People joke about a make or miss league, but that was easily the biggest storyline of this series. The Heat outshot the Celts in 4 of the 7 games and that is why they are in the Finals. Their guys stepped up and made their open looks/big shots and the Celts couldn't throw a pea in the ocean
There was no regression from their role guys being on the road, and there was no boost to the Celts from being at home. So as much as this is about the Celts inability to make shots, you also have to give credit to MIA for stepping up and coming through. When 35 of the 42 3PA were open or wide open, you can't shoot 25% and expect to win. Holding the Heat to 103 was good enough, but you need to score to win.
- Then of course there's Jaylen Brown. Nothing to really say other than it was a complete and utter disaster for him. The line is as gross as you expect
19 points on 8-23 (1-9) with 8 TOs and a starter worst -17 in his 43 minutes
It looked like maybe he was snapping out of his funk with how he played in Games 3-6, but there's no denying that Jaylen's play in the ECF was nowhere near acceptable. In Game 1, it was the 6 TOs. In Game 2, he went 7-23 (1-7). In Game 3, he went 6-17 (0-7), and then last night was both 8-23 (1-9) and 8 TOs.
For the series, Jaylen averaged 41/16% splits with 3.6 TOs a game. It's hard to be much worse than that, and when this is coming via your 2nd best player, that's going to be a bit of an issue. I will say this, at least Jaylen owned it after the game when plenty of other stars in the NBA either dodge this question or throw their teammates under the bus
Last year it was Tatum in the Finals, this year it was Jaylen in the ECF. For me at least, that's what makes these last two postseason runs so painful.
Of course as a result, you're going to hear a lot of trade Jaylen Brown talk. That he's not worth the money etc. People are emotional right now and that comes with the territory. When you play like this, that stuff comes with it. Something tells me Brad will not be emotional when it comes to what the team ultimately does.
If you're concerned about the price and the new CBA, I'm not sure it makes any sense to trade for an older player who makes more money that is signed for 3-4 more years, the same timeline as Jaylen's potential extension. If you would rather trade Jaylen for younger pieces that maybe make less money, I'm not sure how a drop off in talent and playoff experience brings this team closer to a title. The truth is when the organization decided to invest in the Tatum/Brown duo, the growing pains came with it. The hope is simply that as Tatum/Brown get older and hit their prime NBA years they continue to improve, which is why I think they extend Jaylen and then figure out the rest later.
If you get to the extension money years and it still isn't working, you can now trade a player in his prime years that is locked up as opposed to someone like a 36 year Dame that is making $60M. I know people are mad at Jaylen and want him gone, but I just ask you to think about this rationally. The best path for this team is to still extend him and continue to build.
And just like that, the 2023 Celtics are done. If you've made it this long in the blog, you're a real one. For those who followed along all year, I owe my entire life to you. We went through everything this year together, the highest of highs and the absolute lowest of lows. The clicks, the interactions with all of you, all of it is what makes covering this team so much fun, even if the ending makes me want to jump off a bridge. So for that, all I can say is thank you.
See everyone in Vegas for the Summer Celts. God dammit.