Tank's 2023/24 NBA Predictions
As we enter the 2023-2024 NBA season, the league feels as balanced as ever. Only the defending champion Nuggets and recent champion Bucks seem to be entering the season as clear-cut favorites in each conference to make a deep playoff run.
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
- Boston Celtics: 54-28 (2)
- New York Knicks: 50-32 (3)
- Philadelphia 76ers: 45-37 (6)
- Brooklyn Nets: 42-40 (8)
- Toronto Raptors: 35-47 (12)
The Atlantic Division has a clear favorite in the Celtics, but don’t sleep on the Knicks. Boston made a bold decision this off-season, swapping their heart and soul Marcus Smart for the inconsistent Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics have continuity with their star players, but they don’t fit as a traditional 1-2 punch. Without Smart acting as the glue, the Celtics must find a new identity. The Jrue Holiday acquisition gives them an elite two-way point guard, but they’ve also lost Malcolm Brogdon (Sixth man of the year) and Robert Williams (their defensive anchor). With less depth and interior defense, the Celtics will heavily depend on their stars staying healthy. I think the absence of Williams and Smart on defense is more significant than most realize, especially in the playoffs.
Featured on Barstool
The Knicks enter the season with their roster intact after a second-round exit from the playoffs last year. The most significant variable is Julius Randle, but the present is bright, with Jalen Brunson leading the way and young guns like Immanuel Quickley and Quentin Grimes on the rise. Pundits will push trade storylines and the upcoming free agent class, but the Knicks can make some noise with this roster. Mitchell Robinson should become the best rim protector in the league this season if he can avoid foul trouble and injuries. The return for Obi Toppin was weak, but Donte DiVincenzo is a perfect fit for the Thibs system.
The Sixers will be dealing with James Harden refusing to be an adult and Joel Embiid eyeballing his next home while working through injuries. I think a Philly implosion is imminent. It’s unfortunate because Nick Nurse is a great coach inheriting a mess. They’ve been Hardened.
The Nets have some raw talent and can win some games in the East. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them leapfrog Phiilly.
Drake and the Raptors do not have much to look forward to this year.
Central Division:
- Bucks: 60-22 (1)
- Cavs: 50-32 (4)
- Pacers: 44-38 (7)
- Bulls: 37-45 (11)
- Pistons: 25-57 (13)
The Bucks should dominate the Central Division and the Eastern Conference while winning 60 games if their big three stay healthy. They have the best player and roster in the conference, entering the season with a chip on their shoulder after last year’s playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, and Damian Lillard have games that should mesh perfectly together. It is their division and conference to lose.
The Cavs will be streaky but should be able to swing 50 wins with this roster. Donovan Mitchell is entering a contract year with seemingly no interest in staying in Cleveland. I wouldn’t be surprised if it leads to a desperate trade deadline deal that could bring the Cavs closer to .500 by the end of the season. Max Strus was a nice pickup but not a needle mover.
The Pacers have an exciting young core led by Tyrese Haliburton, with new additions including Bruce Brown and Obi Toppin. If they can commit to defense, this team could surpass the Cavs and maybe win a playoff series if things fall apart in Cleveland. This team has the broadest spectrum of possible outcomes. The variable is if Tyrese makes the next leap into superstardom.
The Bulls seem to be descending into no man’s land.
Detroit, on the other hand, is building a solid young core. Neither team is positioned to make a big move up in the standings this season, though Detroit is heading in the right direction. I expect the Bulls to make some big trades.
Southeast Division:
- Miami: 45-37 (5)
- Magic: 41-41 (9)
- Hawks: 39-45 (10)
- Wizards: 22-60 (14)
- Hornets: 22-60 (15)
This division is putrid.
The Heat aren’t a dominant regular-season team, and they had a bad offseason, losing Gabe Vincent and Max Strus while gaining little horsepower. I don’t see this team getting to 50 wins. They’ll be happy with a mid-seed and then go to war behind Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in the playoffs. Don't be surprised if Pat Riley pulls off a trade midseason.
Magic fans are rightfully excited about Paola Banchero, but this team still feels a year away from getting over .500.
The Hawks will live and die by the inconsistent play of Trae Young and most likely die.
The Wizards and Hornets will be “get right” games for every opponent.
This is the most feeble division in basketball.
Western Conference
Northwest Division:
- Nuggets: 61-21 (1)
- Timberwolves: 47-35 (7)
- Thunder: 45-37 (9)
- Jazz: 38-44 (12)
- Trailblazers: 23-59 (13)
The best team in the NBA will dominate this division. Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, and company return to defend their title with minimal churn in the offseason. While a championship isn’t certain, a division title is a lock. Their continuity, style of play, and depth put them in a great position to repeat. Jamal and Jokic are just getting started.
The TIMBER-wolves and Thunder will battle for the second spot (which will be irrelevant in a loaded Western Conference). I think it’ll come down to which young star makes the most significant jump this season: Anthony Edwards or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. I’m picking Edwards.
The Jazz are still rebuilding, with Danny Ainge trying to fleece anyone who will answer his calls.
And lastly, the Trailblazers are officially in rebuild mode post-Lillard. With that said, Scoot Henderson is someone worth getting excited about building around.
Southwest Division:
- Mavs: 50-32 (6)
- Pelicans: 43-39 (10)
- Grizzlies: 41-41 (11)
- Rockets: 22-60 (14)
- Spurs: 22-60 (15)
It is the Mavs division to lose with the Ja Morant suspension, even with Kyrie Irving weirding everyone out. Luka Doncic is due for a revenge year after last season’s shameful conclusion.
The Pelicans will be frisky, with Zion Williamson being their biggest variable. While they have the talent, they don’t have consistent availability. If everyone plays 78 games, this team could win 50 games, but they won’t, and they won’t.
If Ja Morant wasn’t suspended for 25 games, this would be the Grizzlies’ division to lose. It will be hard for him to come back and lead the team to 50 wins. Hopefully, Derrick Rose can be a positive influence, and Marcus Smart brings his intensity, but this team needs Ja. Steven Adam’s out for the year will also severely hurt them inside.
The Rockets and Spurs will be feeble, but seeing how Victor Wembanyama plays will be interesting. A massively hyped 7’5” wing player who has looked great in the preseason. What could go wrong? I can not believe Fred VanVleet got a $130 MM deal. If Wemby is truly special (which he has looked like in the preseason), maybe the Spurs will get to 30-40 wins, but it’ll be tough because his supporting cast is weak.
Dillon Brooks will lead the Rockets to another terrible season.
Pacific Division:
- Warriors: 57-25 (2)
- Suns: 55-27 (3)
- Kings: 54-28 (4)
- Lakers: 50-32 (5)
- Clippers: 45-37 (8)
This is the most unpredictable division in basketball. They are all excellent but flawed teams. I wouldn’t be surprised by any of these five teams swapping spots. This division is wide open, and every team should make the playoffs.
The Warriors' stars are aging, but still a top team. Chris Paul will always find the open man if he isn’t hurt and look out for Klay to be closer to his old self this year. Ultimately, they know their window is closing, and that home court matters. This division will be a war of attrition. Look for the Warriors to make a “last dance” out of it and make a big run at the NBA Championship.
The Suns are too dependent on their big three to dominate the long regular season. They lack depth and rim protection even with the Bradley Beal addition, while Kevin Durant, their best player, is due for his annual hamstring pop in January.
LeBron James is ancient with Anthony Davis, aka Mr. Glass, as his #1 lieutenant in Los Angeles; it could be a frustrating season for the Lakers.
De’Aaron Fox was spectacular last year, and if he takes another step forward this year, so will the Kings. However, they are still a little young to win this division loaded with former champions.
The Clippers' best players skip half their games and are still hurt when the playoffs arrive (Russell Westbrook will end up being the Alpha of the season), and the Kings are still a little young to win this division loaded with former champions.
Midseason Tournament Winner: No one gives a fuck. I believe that the mid-season tournament is a very stupid initiative, and I will not address it more other than hope no star players get hurt and ruin their season like Edwin Diaz and the Mets.
NBA Awards:
- Coach of the Year: Rick Carlise, Pacers
- Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
- Most Improved Player: Robert Williams, Trailblazers
- Sith Man: Immanuel Quickley, Knicks
- Defensive Player of the Year: Mitchell Robinson, Knicks
- MVP: Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
Play in Tournament
- (7) Pacers over (8) Nets
- (9) Magic over (10) Hawks
- (9) Magic over (8) Nets
- (8) Clippers over Timberwolves
- (9) Thunder over (10) Pelicans
- (9) Pelicans over (7) Timberwolves
NBA Playoffs:
First Round:
- Bucks over Magic in 4
- Celtics over Pacers in 6
- Knicks over 76ers in 5
- Heat over Cavaliers in 6
- Nuggets over Thunder in 5
- Warriors over Clippers in 5
- Suns over Mavericks in 6
- Kings over Lakers in 7
Second Round:
- Bucks over Heat in 7
- Knicks over Celtics in 7
- Nuggets over Kings in 6
- Suns over Warriors in 7
Eastern Conference Finals:
- Bucks over Knicks in 6
Western Conference Finals:
- Nuggets over Suns in 6
NBA Finals:
- Bucks over Nuggets in 7
- MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
*
It's a college basketball event like no other. The 2023 Barstool Sports Invitational takes over Wintrust Arena in Chicago on Wednesday, Nov. 8. One night, two great games: Loyola Chicago vs. FAU at 6pm CT and Miss. State vs. Arizona State - 8pm CT. Get tickets now: barstool.link/invitational