It's Time To End This Outdated Narrative That The Boston Celtics Are Powerless If They Aren't Making Their Threes

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As they say, old narratives die hard. Once the masses latch on to a certain narrative, it's nearly impossible to change their mind, regardless of what might be actually happening in real life. That's not just true in sports, but really in all of life. We as people get stuck in our ways and that's that. 

When it comes to really the only thing outside of my family and my dogs that I care about, I see it all the time. In the midst of not only one of the greatest Celtics seasons in franchise history but in all of NBA history, we still live in a world where certain narratives just won't die. While we've moved on from the "Tatum and Brown don't like each other" era, there is still one they can't seem to shake.   It's simply easier to regurgitate the low hanging fruit and old narratives rather than doing the work and understanding what this team is actually doing here in 2023-24.

What am I talking about? Well let me ask if you've heard stuff like before

"The Celtics take too many 3PA, they rely too much on outside shooting!"

"I don't buy what we're seeing because the Celtics can only win when they make their 3s"

"In a playoff series, the Celtics need to show they can win without 3PM like the true contenders and champs like the Nuggets"

Here's the thing. There was a time when things like this were true and more than valid criticisms. But I am here to tell you, it is time to bury this narrative that the Celts are nothing but 3P merchants and once those shots don't drop, they have no other way to win. 

Through these first 60 games (48-12), something has felt different watching this team play. To deny that would be denying the obvious. Part of it is of course the new roster, part of that is the maturation and development of their best players, part of that is Joe feeling more comfortable and having more experience, but when you comb through all the numbers, there's one glaring difference which might be the most important adjustment of them all.

The Celtics have figured out not only how to win without the 3PM, but they are currently the best team in the NBA at it. 

League average when it comes to three point shooting for teams this season in the NBA is 36.7%. Generally in this current era of offense, you're looking at 35-36% in terms of average. 

In 2023-24, when the Celts shoot under 35% from deep, they have a 12-10 record. 

That means when they shoot over 35%, they are 36-2. Not bad considering 35% would still technically be under the league average.

I was curious how that stacked up against the other "contenders" or top 4 seeds from each conference from this season, and the results will probably surprise you

DEN: 11-11 

MIL: 11-11 

OKC: 11-10 

CLE: 13-12 

MIN: 7-6 

LAC: 10-10 

NYK: 8-17

If you want to know why things truly feel different watching this version of the Celts, this is it. All you have to do is compare it to the most two recent versions of this roster

2023-24: 12-10 (so far)

2022-23: 14-18 (2-6 in the playoffs)

2021-22: 17-22 (5-5 in the playoffs)

As you can see, this narrative absolutely had merit in previous seasons, especially last year when games mattered most. It's probably why some are so caught up on this outdated narrative, despite what the 2023-24 Celtics are showing us. While we can't predict what will happen in the playoffs, the truth of the matter is that they are no more dependent on 3s for their success than any of the other elite teams in the league this year while essentially being the most successful team in the league even without them.

The easy answer to this change is our beloved 7'3 basketball cheat code Kristaps Porzingis. You bring in the most effective post player in the NBA this year, and things are obviously going to be more balanced. It's not crazy to assume Brad saw this trend over the last two seasons and was determined to put an end to it while still keeping the much needed floor spacing. But we're also seeing an increase in post up offense from the Jays and Jrue Holiday. When the 3s aren't falling, we're seeing the Celtics adjust and find other ways to win, something that is going to be CRUCIAL in a playoff environment. We're seeing Tatum and Brown attack the rim and settle less and less, which is exactly how you get to that 12-10 record. 

This isn't to say 3P volume isn't an important part of the Celtics offensive formula. Of course it is. But that's not exactly new, even dating back to the Ime years. The difference is simply in prior years, there was no counter. Their playstyle was much more susceptible to variance and they became easier to guard, especially against playoff defenses who have all the time in the world to scheme against you. 

With Porzingis, the Celts have made the transition into becoming as scheme-proof as they possibly can be. If you find yourself in a situation where the Celtics are shooting slightly under league average, there's a strong chance you are not going to win (see: 36-2). That's the bar for this group. Just don't be historically bad, you don't even need to be average! Slightly below average will work just fine.

But now, even if they find themselves with one of those 5-22 nights from deep, it's no longer a death sentence. The 2023-24 Celts are still winning at a best in the league rate even when that happens. No longer can you just pray the Celtics go cold in any given game, because they've now embraced a diversified offensive approach. 

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So yes, the Celts take a lot of threes and are unbeatable when they make them, just like previous versions. But what makes them different and why there's a good chance you may feel different watching them this season is that they've found a way to take one of their more glaring weaknesses and flaws and have managed to turn that into a strength.

As we head into the playoffs, this is what should give you the most confidence. Not the offensive ranking, not the defensive ranking, not the clutch time numbers etc. What should give you confidence is that finally, the Celtics have seemingly found a way to end this narrative that they are nothing without 3PMs.

Admittedly doing it in the regular season is nice, but that's not what will end the narrative. To do that, they're going to have to come through in the playoffs to the point where they are the last team standing. But if we continue to see the current trend we've been watching for the last 60 games, they have as good a shot as any.