If You Are Looking For A Team To Make The Final Four, This Week's AP Poll Might Be The Key ... Let Me Explain

Rico Bosco1/28/2025 5:00 PM

Brandon Sumrall. Getty Images.

I know we're all gearing up for The Super Bowl and there's a million props to place, but there's no game this weekend, and it does seem like this week is a bit of a lull for football before everyone really starts dialing in to the big game. In the meantime, college basketball is an absolute showcase of the weird and entertaining every night. Look no further than last night.

The Duke NC State game was something out of a poorly written sitcom.

A player threw up, and needed roughly 67,000 towels to clean it up.

Then a girl passed out

And in the late night game, Caleb Love hit a bomb from beyond half court to force overtime.

Every night is a circus. It's the best. It really is, and it's even better to be dialed in starting from opening night than be a casual who comes in around this time of year, because it feels like someone who liked a band before their songs hit the radio, or someone who saw a movie before it blew up. Being in the grind every night of the season feels like you enjoy it that much more because you got the full experience. The good, the bad and everything in between.

I come here with a little help for the diehards and the casuals with some stats regarding the Final Four and the AP Poll, specifically the AP Poll in the last week of January.

Now I'll be fully transparent, I did not first discover this stat, one of the many writers (back when people seriously wrote about college basketball religiously (shoutout Gary Parrish, Titus, Andy Glockner, Pat Forde, and the GOAT of all GOATS … Luke Winn) but I have always remembered it and now adopted it myself and have tracked it since I read it.

Since 2002, in all but 1 year (2023) at least 1 team, ranked in the AP Top 10, has made the Final Four in the poll released in the last week of January.

In those 22 years, 17 years have had 2 or more teams (77.2%)

In those 22 years, 13 years have had 3 or more teams (59%)

(2015-2022 had a consecutive streak where 3 teams made the Final Four every year)

In 2 years (2007, 2008) all 4 teams made the Final Four ranked in the AP Top 10.

You can go fact check it here if you like.

I'll be honest, I don't fully understand why this stat is hitting at such a big percentage but it is. I believe there can be a correlation made that you are halfway through conference play at this point and it's really where we separate the contenders and pretenders, or that at this point we have enough data to really see the makeup of a team, or that we're two thirds through the schedule, or really just plain luck but facts are facts and an AP Top 10 team usually makes the Final Four. Aside from 2023 of course which was just a fucking bizarre tournament.

Here's the current DraftKings odds if you are believing the trend stays true.