The Colorado Rockies Are Raising The Fences At Coors Field
I missed this story yesterday when I was out of action, so I wanted to hit on it today. The Colorado Rockies announced that they are raising the fences at Coors Field, but was this the right move?
We’ve heard of stadiums bringing in the fences to increase home runs, but I can’t think of many stadiums who tried to decrease home runs. Back in the day, the Red Sox moved in the bullpens so that Ted Williams could hit more home runs, although he barely hit any in there. The Mets have moved their fences in more than once, and the Marlins moved their fences in and made them lower for the 2016 season. The Rockies are doing the opposite, and I’d be pretty pissed about that if I were a player. Well, a hitter. I’m sure the pitchers are thrilled about it.
Now, don’t get me wrong. Coors Field unquestionably boosts power numbers and batting averages. I don’t think anybody could argue that. Every time a Rockies player’s name comes up in trade rumors, Red Sox fans will tweet me asking if Boston should be in on them, and all I’ll tell them is, “Look at the splits.” Todd Helton was a rare exception where his home/road splits were off, but he was still a really good hitter on the road. But you could clearly see a difference in his 1.048 OPS at Coors Field and .855 OPS on the road. Still a really good hitter, but definitely wouldn’t be the same player had he spent his entire career elsewhere.
I look at guys like Troy Tulowitzki, who had a similar gap in his home/road OPS splits over the course of his career, having hit .321 with a .951 OPS at Coors Field, and has since hit .242 with an .808 OPS at his new home ballpark in Toronto. But when you look at the sluggers who the Rockies have now, Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado, who hit 40 and 42 home runs last year respectively, I wonder how this will impact their performances in the future. Gonzalez hit .299 with a .972 OPS at home last year, and .243 with a .758 OPS on the road. It was a similar story for Arenado, who finished eighth in the National League MVP voting last year. Arenado hit .316 with a .960 OPS at Coors field in 2015, and .258 with an .835 OPS on the road.
Knowing what we know, in that clearly their performances are boosted because of Coors Field, should Rockies fans be worried? To a degree, absolutely. I mean, I think it’s safe to say that raising the fences when you have two hitters in your lineup who hit 40 home runs last year will greatly put in jeopardy the likelihood that they’ll reach those totals again in 2016, but that doesn’t make the ball carry any less up in Colorado. Also, the fact that they’re raising the fences and not moving them in means that there is still all that green grass out there in the outfield, which is why we see huge boosts in batting average, not just slugging percentage, at Coors Field.
Arenado had 43 doubles on top of his 42 home runs last year, so logic would tell you that there’s a really good chance that the balls that cleared the fences that they’re raising could just be doubles in 2016, which wouldn’t be the end of the world. I would totally be pissed if I were either of those two guys, because more home runs equals more money once they’re both eligible for free agency (Gonzalez can become a free agent in 2018, and 2020 for Arenado), but guys get paid for hitting a ton of doubles, too. I would bet on their batting averages and on-base percentages being just fine, but their slugging percentages will more than likely take a hit. I’m sure the Rockies pitching staff won’t lose any sleep over it.