2017 NFL Draft Preview: The Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks still jockeying for position in NFL draft – ESPN (blog) https://t.co/Z7l346KGyg pic.twitter.com/Nz5SJc4Pgs
— NFL News Daily (@NFL_NDaily) March 22, 2017
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Writer’s Note: Right from the early days of Barstool I did draft NFL draft previews focused on the Patriots’ needs. And I’ll put my track record up against anybody’s. I had them picking, among others, Dominique Easley, Nate Solder, Dont’a Hightower, Brandon Spikes, Darius Butler and that Florida tight end who went all Jame Gumb on everybody. I never claim to know what other teams are going to do. Mock drafts are a monument to futilty. I’m just the Belichick Whisperer who understands what kind of players fit his schemes. Well this year, since Barstool has now gone intergalactic and the Pats don’t have a pick in the top 70, I’m going to do more of an overall breakdown of each position, with just a Patriots note at the end. It’s hard enough to guess what they’re going do at the end of the first round. Trying to predict what they’ll do late on Day 2 is like trying to hit the moon with a Lawn Dart. I’ll start with the quarterbacks. The first in a series.
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Positional overview: This is not a great year to be going into the draft looking for your franchise quarterback. Not that any year is. When Dak Prescott was the 8th QB taken last year, Mike Glennon (the 73rd overall pick in 2013) is making $15 million a year and Russell Wilson was 3rd rounder, drafting a QB high has become the crapshootiest of crapshoots. And this class is extra strength crapshooty. (I’ll stop that now.)
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There are no less than six underclassmen among the top prospects this year. And with the proliferation of gimmicky college offenses, it’s easier to get celebrity sex tapes than film of guys running pro-style attacks. So the pundits are all over the map on this position, with absolutely no consensus on what order they’ll come off the board or where they’ll go. So yeah, if you’re a GM looking to find the QB who’ll make your career, be afraid. Be very afraid.
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Flawed QB Who by Default Tops More Rankings Than Anyone Else:
DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame. 6-4, 233 lbs, 4.83 40-time
Compares to the active ingredients in: Carson Palmer
At first look, you see a guy with the size, movement and strength to be a the prototype of a pro quarterback. He’s got a head for the pre-snap game, with the ability to make the kinds of checks and audibles that make coaches have to stand up and adjust their pants. It’s just when you look closer that you start seeing the flaws. If you’re real anal about technique, like most NFL coaches are, he’ll worry you. He needs refinement. He his ball positioning gets sloppy. And he’s got a little of what Bill Polian used to (back when he was building winners and not yelling at clouds) called “slow eyes.” Meaning he doesn’t progress through his reads quickly enough and the ball comes out late. There’s also the matter of Kizer being benched twice last year. And that he had a better season in 2015, though some of that can be chalked up to losing Ronnie Staley, Will Fuller and CJ Prosise to the pros. And some of his numbers suffered by playing through Hurricane Matthew. He has the traits that, with the right coaching situation, could make him very good. But how high a GM is willing to take the risk is anybody’s guess.
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Captain Intangibles:
Deshaun Watson, Clemson. 6-2, 221 lbs. 4.66
Compares to the active ingredients in: Alex Smith
To borrow a phrase from Simon Cowell, Watson doesn’t have a “wow factor” as much as he’s a poised orchestrator and distributor. He shows nice touch on bucket passes. But was never really asked to step into his throws and drive the ball downfield in Clemson’s fairly basic offense with its predetermined reads and mostly intermediate passes. That said, his record as a winner speaks for itself. A trip to the BCS championship bowl in a year where he won the Davey O’Brien and Peyton Manning awards, followed winning the national title isn’t the worst curriculum vitae to bring to a job interview. Plus in those two title games against a Bama defense embedded with first round talent, he threw 8 TDs and 1 pick. The accuracy of his throws is a concern. His makeup is not.
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We Know What We Don’t Know:
Mitchell Trubisky, North Carolina. 6-2, 222 lbs, 4.67
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Compares to the active ingredients in: Kirk Cousins
There’s a lot of good here that’s not hard to spot. His playmaking ability. Strength. Toughness. His 68% completions, which was 5th best in the nation. 30 TDs to only 6 picks. Three straight games with 400+ yards and no INTs. 288 YPG on the season. He’s also a dual threat who can run or leave the pocket and throw on the run. But there are legit reasons that Trubisky is a gamble. For starters, he’s … well, not been a starter. Not for long, with only 13 total games since he took over for Marquise Williams. Second, he took no less than 98% of his snaps from the shotgun. Some mocks have him going to San Fran with the 2nd pick, which would be bananas given Kyle Shanahan’s controlled offense with the QB under center so much. If you’re really a technique geek, the knock on Trubisky is that he’s too much of an upper body thrower who locks his front leg instead of stepping into it. Some sites have him as low as a 2nd round projection. But I’ve seen at least one that has him going to Cleveland with the 12 pick. He’ll be one of the major stories of the draft.
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“The System Fails. And Then? Survival…”:
Pat Mahomes, Texas Tech. 6-2, 225, 4.80
Compares to the active ingredients in: Case Keenum
A few fun facts about him: He’s the son of the Pat Mahomes who pitched for the Red Sox in the late ’90s. In his last year he had 41 TDs and rushed for 12 more. He’s one of only two QBs to have 5000+ yards, the first being Keenum, who also did it in Kliff Kingsbury’s up-tempo spread offense. As a college QB he was strong, easy thrower and the confidence of John Wick. As one NFL scout put it, he’s got “big balls.” But he’s also a project who’ll have to have his mechanics torn down to the subflooring and rebuilt. His footwork is a mess. He’s got arm strength but throws completely off balance. If someone is willing to be patient and work some refinement into his game, they might strike Unobtainium. But it will take shit tons of work.
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Davis Webb, Cal. 6-5, 229 lbs, 4.79
Compares to the active ingredients in: Jared Goff
The Goff comparison is a no-brainer because they’re both products of the Bear Raid system. Whether that means Webb went to the classes at Cal where they teach you where the sun rises and sets, I’m not sure. Anyway, he’s got the size and an NFL-ready arm you look for, but in that offense 65% of his passes were under 10 yards. When he did take shots upfield, he was prone to bad decisions, with about half of his picks coming when he forced the ball into an area with safety help. If he gets better at driving off his back foot instead of relying on his arm, plus learns to read coverages, his toolbox has everything else you need.
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The Mid-Round Project:
Brad Kaaya, Miami. 6-4, 214 lbs, 4.78
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Compares to the active ingredients in: Cody Kessler
Kaaya is one of those kids who was raised like a veal calf to be an NFL quarterback. And sometimes all that time spent at passing camps on his parents’ dime shows. The knock on him is that he needs a clean pocket because he’s not really mobile and had a tendency to stare down the rush instead of keep his eyes upfield and rely on pocket awareness. He could stand to add some mass, but he’s still solid. And toughness is not an issue. He missed one game as a sophomore with a concussion and played through a shoulder injury as a junior.
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The Sleeper:
Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech. 6-3, 232 lbs, 4.80
Evans is JUCO transfer who came to turned down Texas A&M to play for the Hokies, where he broke just about all of Michael Vick’s non-interstate dog torturing records. He’s a big, powerful runner who can truck tacklers. He can throw from the pocket or rolling out of it, though like a lot of college QBs he’s too quick to pull it down and run with it rather than keep his eyes upfield. The main issue is that those records of Vick’s that he broke were all single-season, which is all that he played in Blacksburg before declaring early for the draft.
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Small School Wonders:
Alek Torgeson, Penn. 6-3, 230 lbs, 4.80
Compares to the active ingredients in: Ryan Fitzpatrick
A 3-year starter and twice All-Ivy League. Also strong, showed some good touch on deep throws and is a film room junkie. Torgeson obviously didn’t face a lot of products off the football factory assembly line. He need a good showing at the East-West Shrine game and delivered. Enough that he might be a Sunday selection.
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Antonio Pipkin, Tiffin. 6-0, 225 lbs, 4.68
Compares to the active ingredients in: Name any UDFA QB from a second-tier school getting cut in camp
Pipkin was once considered an FBS talent playing in F2. Or DII. Or FS1. Whatever the holy hell they call the smaller schools. Like Torgeson he needed a strong showing Senior Week. He didn’t deliver. Unless some personnel guy bangs the table to defend the integrity of the Great Lakes Intercollegiate Athletic Conference and their best 6-foot quarterback, he’ll probably need to learn to speak Canadian.
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“You are Full of Surprises, Master Baggins.”:
Nick Mullens, Southern Mississippi. 6-0, 187, 4.70
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Compares to the active ingredients in: Frodo
2015’s Conference USA Offensive Player of the Year has to be the toughest college player in the under-190 lb division. Last season, the myth became legend when he suffered a compound fracture of the thumb on his throwing hand, told the doctors to push the bone back in and stitch him up, then played the Texas-San Antonio game wearing a glove. I don’t know if that will get him drafted. But if you need a ring thrown into a volcano, he’s your man.
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The Perfect Patriot:
Nathan Peterman, Pitt. 6-2, 226 lbs, 4.82
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Compares to the active ingredients in: Andy Dalton
For you fans of good, solid, unexciting, nuanced fundamentals, Peter has the best technique in his class. After few injury plagued missteps early in his career at Tennessee, he got his degree in three years then transferred to Pitt. There he ran a pro-style offense with a lot of half-field reads, where he averaged an impressive 9.3 per attempt and lit the national champions up for 5 touchdowns. He’s also gifted with massive, Wreck-It Ralph sized hands. The Pats are predictable in their unpredictability when it comes to drafting QBs. And if they add some Day 2-3 picks and this kid is available to them in that area where Jacoby Brissett was, I would love them to take a flyer on him. And let the J. Peterman blogs write themselves.