How Would An Average 4-Man Scramble Team Do In A PGA Tour Event?

Reader Email:

Debate Question

A Little embrace debate for next week’s podcast for you guys: could a 4 man scramble of regular guys (like 8-10 handicaps) make the cut/contend/win a regular tournament on the PGA?

Bob

So this question came across the wire this week. How would an average 4-man scramble team do in a PGA Tour event? Obviously this is heavily dependent on who makes up the team, so to stick with the spirit of Bob’s email let’s call this a team all between 8-10 handicaps. Yes that’s better than the “average” handicap golfer, but I think a lot of these successful 4-man scramble squads have an average cap in this 8-10 range.

First off, what a question. What a spectacle this is to fantasize about. 4 buddies teeing it up in a Tour event? Doing practice rounds and Wednesday pressers? Waltzing up to that first tee in a group with Ian Poulter and Bubba Watson just to rattle their cages all week? Media hype would be crazy. So many short documentaries about Tim the accountant from Bumfuck USA who left the second wife and kids back home and begged for a couple days vacation to sneak into the John Deere Classic.

Anyway, how would they do?

I feel like your typical scramble winner wins with a score around 60. Let’s call it 12-under. Now, that’s on courses that are not Tour courses, tees that are not close to tipped out, greens that roll around a 9, and rough that’s about half the length of most Tour rough. They probably play around 6,500 yards. The Tour average is in the 7,200-7,300 range (just guessing, did not feel like looking this up).

If it’s a one-off Tour appearance, these guys are going to struggle. I think they come in right around the cut line. You have to factor in the unfamiliar feeling of teeing off in front of tens of thousands of people, TV cameras watching, Tour pressure in the air, huge money on the line. You have to factor in walking alongside Tour pros. You have to factor in normal, non-professional dudes playing in wildly abnormal circumstances.

At this week’s RBC Canadian Open, for example, the 4th hole is a 200-yard par 3 over water. What 8-10 handicap is a lock to even hit land with everyone watching holding a long iron from that distance? And that’s not even long by many Tour par 3 standards; other tracks they’ll see plenty 220+.

The 8th is a 485-yard par 4 that plays as a par 5 for the public. You need one of your 8-10 handis to step up and rip a 300-yard bomb in the fairway to even have a chance of hitting the green in 2. If you all miss that fairway, you’re 200+ out in Tour rough; most 8-10 handis can barely get out of the stuff.

Don’t get me wrong; there are obviously some shorter, easier holes in there. And these guys will find themselves with plenty of birdie looks — and 4 putts at each one — but it wouldn’t take much for them to rack up a couple bogeys, get rattled, and struggling making birdies coming in.

I think they make the cut, but don’t contend. That’s in a one-off Tour showing.

Now, if you put these guys on Tour for a full schedule, I think about midway through the year they start to win events. They start to learn what it takes, strategize their way around the courses, contend every single week, and take a couple tourneys down. 4 shots for every 1 shot is just too much too overcome, especially once you lather on experience.

What do you think?