Champions Classic Preview and Picks

Ah, there’s nothing like today. A day where you can sit back and watch hoops all day thanks for the 24 hour marathon with the highlight being the Champions Classic. Oh, wait? What? They canceled the 24 hour tip off marathon because they hate fun? Yep. So now there aren’t daytime games to bet on, but we still get the Champions Classic, which is in Chicago this year.

*Note lines may have changed from time of writing

Duke vs Michigan State – 7:00 pm 

Line: Duke -2

Yes, I know the story here is No. 1 vs No. 2 but it’s also the fact that K has absolutely owned Tom Izzo, which is shocking. K is 10-1 all time against Izzo, something that will be talked about quite a bit today. But, I want to focus on the individual matchups because it was talked about yesterday that we’re going to see some awesome ones. The one that will draw possibly the most attention is a battle between two stud freshmen and two likely lottery picks in the NBA Draft. The one I’m talking about is Jaren Jackson vs Marvin Bagley.

If that is in fact the plan and what we’ll see tonight there is plenty of intrigue all around. Bagley has gotten off to about as good of a start as possible as he’s averaged 25 and 10 in the first two games and is looking the part that everyone thought he could be. Jackson is able to match him up from an athletic standpoint in the sense that he can bother him in the paint and at the rim.

The one that I think will determine this game though is Winston vs Duval and if Winston can stay in front of him. Duval and Duke are at their best when he can break a guy down, get in the lane and go from there. We saw him have 12 assists in a game already this season and surrounding him with shooters and athletes, it’s just so important to stay in front of him. Here’s a prime example of what I’m talking about. Duval has a good shake with his dribble to go along with his explosiveness, which makes it tough for people to stay in front of him. From there, he just forces defenses to collapse due to his ability to finish in the lane. If that wasn’t enough he has good vision and you can see it here. This is what Michigan State has to limit defensively:

For Michigan State on offense, I can’t stress how important it is that the Spartans take care of the ball. Michigan State was one of the worst teams in the country last year in turnover percentage and that carried over to game one this year. Against North Florida, Michigan State turned it over on 25.6% of possessions. That can’t happen in this game. There will be a ton of possessions as both teams want to get out and run. Take a look at the number of possessions per game and efficiency so far this year:

Offensively, Michigan State is going to look to beat you in transition, off of offensive rebound putbacks and cutting off the ball due to how great of a passer Cassius Winston is. That said, this team goes as Miles Bridges goes. He’s the best player in the country and will have a slight height advantage over Gary Trent if that matchups hold. Whether it’s man or zone, one thing Izzo likes to do with Bridges is have him run the baseline up to just below the wing. Michigan State will keep the court spread by having Jackson in the high post and Ward opposite low, giving Bridges the ability to run baseline.

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I expect to see a lot of this sort of set in order to bring Bagley away from the rim and give Bridges as much space to work with as possible. It gives you a shooter opposite wing in Langford, an excellent passer in Winston and then 3 guys that can finish anywhere in the lane. I know this is a zone set, but Michigan State runs this sort of thing against man too.

Pick: Michigan State – I know Duke is the No. 1 team in the country and K has owned Izzo, but I’ll take Michigan State here. I think the depth that Michigan State has pays off as they can throw a bunch of different guys and looks at Bagley. Last year we saw Miles Bridges get a little overwhelmed in this event, if that happens to Jackson, Izzo has a plethora of bigs to throw in there instead. I think you’ll see Izzo preach staying at home with Duval to really limit some points there too.

Kansas vs Kentucky – 9:30 

Line: Kansas -2.5 

We’ve gotten some classic Kansas vs Kentucky games the last couple of years thanks to the SEC/Big 12 Challenge. This year it’s back on a neutral court and you’re looking at two very different teams. Kentucky’s strength is its size, length and frontcourt. They are going to kill you at the rim, look to get out and run and finish with a dunk. Kansas on the other hand has continued to live with small ball and want to beat you with the 3-point line.

I think it’s pretty obvious about where I’m going to go here on what to watch. If you saw Kentucky vs Vermont on Sunday, you saw the second half and where they struggled defensively. They got lost, especially on cross screens, high ball screens and straight drive and kicks to give up 3-pointers. That’s what Kansas wants to do. They have gotten up 3’s on 46.7 of Field Goal Attempts. They have guys in Graham/Svi/Newman who can all beat you off the bounce and kick.

Against Vermont, Kentucky did a couple of different things in the second half that caused them to give up the open looks. First, the rotations were a step slow and that’s due to the youth of the team. Calipari’s defensive system calls for aggressiveness and correct rotation on the weakside. That wasn’t there. The other thing they would do is play the cross screens wrong, especially late. Guys would go under the screen, allowing Vermont to take a rhythm dribble for an open three. Here’s a look at what Kansas does – the Jayhawks are an excellent passing team to the 3-point line.

Defensively for Kansas, the Jayhawks need to keep the ball out of the paint and more importantly play the circle cut correctly. We saw Kentucky look to run that set quite a bit, which gives them a few different looks. If you listened to the podcast I do with Ben Brust, he talked about defending the circle cut sets that Kentucky likes to run and while it’s simply, it’s tough to defend because you have to worry about 3-4 different reads. First, there’s the shot from about 10 feet the cutter can take. If that’s not there, they can throw the lob to one of the bigs. If that’s not there, they can take a bounce and finish themselves at the rim. Finally, they can throw the skip pass or pass to the trailer for an open three. With Kentucky having the size advantage and not a huge threat to kill you from the 3-point line, expect to see plenty of option 1 and 2.

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Pick: Kansas – I’m taking the Jayhawks here. This Kentucky team will look different as the season goes on and will be closer to Kansas than they are now, but I don’t know how they make up for the 3-point shooting at the moment. Kansas is going to get their shots and will have some clean looks. Kentucky either needs to adjust defensively or find someone to catch a hot hand offensively. For Kansas, I trust Devonte’ Graham and his ability to dictate tempo. Don’t be surprised if Udoka Azubuike is able to bother Nick Richards for a little bit too.