Big East Tournament Starts Today: Preview, Picks, Storylines

I know there are a bunch of people who are going to get mad that the Big East Tournament is going on in Madison Square Garden and South Florida and Rutgers aren’t playing because it’s not the old Big East. I’m not one of those people. I find the Big East incredibly fun as it continues to be a top-3 conference in America per every metric out there. What I do think they need to do though is just slap the Aeropostale or American Eagle logo back on it again like the old days. I regress. Here’s this year’s Big East bracket:

Odds: For those that like some sweat. These are the odds via Oddsshark:

Bubble Teams that Need a Win: Look right here tonight as Marquette plays DePaul. Now, a win over DePaul doesn’t put Marquette into the field, but a loss immediately eliminates them from any bubble talk. Marquette will likely need to beat Villanova as well in order to feel confident on Selection Sunday. If it beats DePaul and loses to Villanova you’ll be sweating. As I mentioned earlier a loss to DePaul and Marquette is gone. The other team that could use a win is Providence. The Friars are currently an 11- seed on bracketmatrix. A loss to Creighton in the 4/5 game could end up leaving them on the wrong side, especially if any bids get stolen. Right now the biggest story is the fact we haven’t a bid thief. If Providence beats Creighton it will be safely in. But, with the Friars currently an 11 seed, you don’t want to think about Dayton or being on the wrong side.

Value team to take: I like Seton Hall at 8/1. I know I’ve been high on them all year and they’ve been kind of disappointing, but they always seem to play well in the Big East Tournament. If they can beat Butler, they will likely draw Villanova. That’s a team they actually match up well against and have had some great games at MSG with. The biggest reason is simply because Angel Delgado is a monster and Nova tends to struggle guarding him – although last game Omari Spellman did the best job on him since Daniel Ochefu was around. But with it being the final go-around for Delgado, Rodriguez, Sanogo and Carrington, I like them at 8/1.

Players to Watch: You know all about Mikal Bridges, Trevon Bluiett, Angel Delgado, Markus Howard and Jalen Brunson. We’ll be taking a look at some of the other guys across the league that perhaps the casual fan doesn’t know much about yet.

Eric Paschall (Villanova) – Villanova has struggled defensively this year, which is a weird statement when you look at the roster makeup. However, one of the players to keep an eye on is Eric Paschall. Now that everyone is healthy, Nova can get back to the death lineup where it moves Paschall to the five spot and surrounds him with four guards, bringing in DiVincenzo, Booth, Brunson and Bridges. Paschall can switch 1-5, hit shots and is a strong rebounder.

Naji Marshall (Xavier) – Marshall was on the All-Freshman team for the Big East and rightfully so. He’s the best on-ball defender for Xavier and will likely draw the best guard from the other team. He has good size at 6’7″ with longer arms to really bother guys. More importantly though he’s added consistency to his outside shot as he’s now at 37.5% from three this year. Marshall’s improvement has been vital for Xavier and the roster versatility it has.

Myles Powell (Seton Hall) – Lost in the group of seniors is Myles Powell, the second leading scorer for the Pirates. He’s moved to off the ball with Carrington as the lead guard spot and is filling in as the wing scorer. He’s scoring over 15 per game while shooting 38% from the 3-point line. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being a guy that goes off in this event, especially being from Trenton.

Jessie Govan (Georgetown) – Govan is averaging a double-double this year as he’s been rejuvenated under new head coach Patrick Ewing. Govan is exactly what you want in a big if you’re Ewing He’s second in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage. He’s eighth in block percentage. He also does an excellent job of drawing fouls and getting to the line where he shoots 75%. He can cause a tough out if Georgetown beats St. John’s.

Toby Hegner (Creighton) – Hegner is one of the few big men left on Creighton’s roster right now thanks to injury. He’s playing over 22 minutes per game this season and scoring 8.5 per game. At 6’10” he’s more of a stretch type player as he averages of three attempts from behind the arc per game. He’s going to need to be able to stay on the floor and against Providence can bring some of its bigs away from the hoop.

Storylines to Watch

1. Can Xavier finally beat Villanova? 

If the two teams hold serve we’ll see a third matchup between the two best teams in the conference. However, Villanova has flat out owned Xavier since the Big East started. In fact, Xavier has won just once since they joined up in the Big East. There’s a chance these two could be playing for a No. 1 seed depending what happens in the ACC and Big 12 Tournaments, but if they do meet up I’m curious to see how Xavier plays. When you lose to a team so many times in a row, it becomes a mental thing. Easy shots become harder and the moment they make a tough shot you feel like here we go again.

2. Can someone from the middle of the pack make a run? 

The Big East had three teams finish 10-8 and two teams finish 9-9. Pretty absurd to have 50% of your league that bunched up. Because of that they are playing each other in early rounds. The thing is can one of them get hot and beat Xavier/Villanova? If they do you’re looking at a league that could have 3 of the top-16 teams in the NCAA Tournament, depending what team wins and what happens elsewhere. We’ve seen the 3/6 seeds make runs here before, can it happen again?

3. What Mikal Bridges shows up? 

Mikal Bridges was one of the breakout stars this year in all of college basketball. He was phenomenal in the nonconference, but actually struggled a bit in conference play. As of late  he’s getting back to shooting the ball well to the tune of 49% from three in the last five games. If he is shooting like that, Villanova is going to win the whole damn thing. He doesn’t necessarily even have to create for himself because there’s so much attention on Brunson or Villanova will invert the offense.

Predictions: 

First round: No. 9 St. John’s over No. 8 Georgetown, No. 7 Marquette over No. 10 DePaul

Quarterfinals: No. 1 Xavier over No. 9 St. John’s, No. 4 Creighton over No. 5 Providence, No. 2 Villanova over No. 7 Marquette, No. 3 Seton Hall over No. 6 Butler

Semifinals: No. 4 Creighton over No. 1 Xavier, No. 2 Villanova over No. 3 Seton Hall

Finals: No. 2 Villanova over No. 4 Creighton

MVP: Jalen Brunson (Villanova)

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All-Tournament Team: Jalen Brunson (Villanova), Mikal Bridges (Villanova), Khyri Thomas (Creighton), Khadeen Carrington (Seton Hall), Trevon Bluiett (Xavier)

Why Villanova: They are made for these sort of events. Plus, until I see teams really start beating Nova, I’m not going to pick against them. As I mentioned you have them healthy, they have some depth now thanks to Gillespie and Samuels playing more. You have Mikal Bridges playing incredibly well. I’m going to trust that and pick Big Cat’s favorite team.