The Weekend Greenie Bag: Drunk Off Kool Aid Playoff Edition

As I sit here still floating after last night’s Game 3 win, I figured everyone will need something to read in between periods of the Bruins, so here we are. What better time than now to check in with fellow stoolies on how they are feeling right now, because to me that’s one of the best parts of having the priviledge of writing for Barstool. I may be crazy, but there are a shit ton of stoolies right there with me, swigging Kool Aid like it’s going out of style and they are nice enough to write in and share their thoughts. That’s the beauty of this blog, during the bad times it’s a place to find support, and during the good times like now, it’s a place where we can allow our brains to think things we shouldn’t be thinking. As a reminder you can be a part of this weekly blog whenever you want, just tweet me whatever with #GreenieBag or email greenieceltsbag@gmail.com

With that said, let’s get to the good stuff…

Greenie,

Still high on lasts nights wet dream of a game, but naturally i came back down to earth after listening to 98.5. There’s no way the C’s can keep both Smart and Rozier without mortgaging the future, right? And with that being said, at this point— who would you rather have going forward? – Sugar Shane

We may as well address the elephant in the room since I got a few emails about this. The Smart/Rozier dilemma is certainly not something we can ignore, but it’s also really hard to answer. First, let’s all remind ourselves what their cap situation looks like

As things stand right now, the Celtics have $104.5M in committed salary next season. This number goes up even more if they keep guys like Larkin and Baynes or Monroe, but chances are it’s probably only going to be one of them. We know Wyc will pay the luxury tax as long as the team is contending, and something tells me this team contends when healthy. So the question really comes down to Marcus Smart’s market. If you can get him for like 4/$32M things become a shit ton easier. If his market is 4/$50M or somewhere around there, it’s a different conversation. Let’s assume that’s what it takes to keep him and Ainge matches. That adds $12M to your books for next season. Then who knows what Baynes gets, let’s call it $6M. It wouldn’t shock me if whoever the Celts draft this summer immediately goes overseas as to not go against their cap right away.

So they’ll be pretty expensive next year with this strategy, but how does it impact them long term? Well in 2019 as you can see, has room to grow. Immediately you change that Kyrie $21M to something closer to $35M. Al is 100% opting in, and I’m pretty sure the Celtics are picking up both Jaylen/Tatum’s options. You also then add hopefully a top 5 pick salary, which let’s call $6M. Then Smart’s $12M and Bayne’s $6M. It’s generous math but the Celtics are looking at being well over the luxury tax threshold and that’s before even getting to Rozier’s RFA. If Terry get’s similar to Smart money, you’re looking at a potential $20M over the tax, which would an extra $30Mish in penalties. Then the following year, it would be your 3rd straight year over the tax and the penalty increases to $2.50 for every $1 over the cap you are. So as you can see sure it’s doable, but I find it unrealistic that Wyc pays that fucking much.

So if I had to choose moving forward, if I’m to assume Kyrie is back and extended long term, the role this team needs more is Smart. Situations like this make me nervous with Ainge, because he’s more likely to trade a guy in this spot than wait until they hit free agency and he loses leverage. Does Rozier look more attractive as a chip because a team can have him for an entire year before he enters RFA. My hope is that Wyc just pays the tax, I can’t imagine this team without either.

I was curious if you knew what Terry’s percentages and efficiency are in the 4th quarter/overtime vs. the rest of the game for the season and in the playoffs? Obviously he is playing at another level right now, but it seems like even in the playoff games he hasn’t played great and the shooting percentages and assists are through the roof in the 4th quarter/overtime. Keep up the good work. – Mike

I’d love to Mike, but first I feel like we all could use a moment to appreciate what we’ve seen from Terry so far this series

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Now to answer your question, during the regular season these were Terry Rozier’s splits in the 4th quarter: 3.8 points 0.8 assists on 42.8/42.1% shooting with an Ortg of 112.8 and Drtg of 102.6. Not bad.

This postseason, here is how he’s doing in the fourth quarter: 6.4 points 1.6 assists on 65.5/61.9% splits with a 124.6 Ortg 126.7 Drtg. So as you can see, he’s nearly been twice as good. The defense in the fourth is a bit of a concern, but offensively he’s been incredible.

Jaylen Brown saying the Celtics wont “play with their food” in reference to the Sixers had my side splitting. This is better off in the comments section but I’m still reeling off this win. – JJ

If you didn’t see it, here’s what JJ is referencing

And I loved every bit of it. Make no mistake, the Celtics cannot think this series is over. If they come out and lay an egg in Game 4 to give PHI momentum, that’s giving them hope that I don’t need. Just wrap this up in four and get the hell out of Philly. If I had to guess, Brad is making this pretty clear

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I expect this team to come out looking for blood.

Greenie,
Obviously Rozier is playing fantastic at PG. This has been consistent since he’s had to start for Kyrie over a month ago. My questions are: can he keep this up? Is this what should be expected of Rozier as a player now? Can he get even better as this is only his 3rd year? If the answers to those questions are yes he can keep this up, not only is he expected to keep this up for the remainder of the postseason, but he should be even better next year and throughout his career then you need to seriously consider trading Kyrie.

Do you think Kyrie for Leonard is a fair trade? I’m a believer that wing men win championships – if you traded Kyrie for Leonard, the starting 5 could be: Rozier, Leonard, Hayward, Tatum and Hortford. Bench: Brown, Smart, Morris, Theis, Larkin, Semi and some centers signed in FA. That’s deep and nasty. – Tommy

I almost didn’t include this because I could not be more clear on this issue. It doesn’t matter if it’s Anthony Davis, or Kawhi. I am not gutting this team to bring one of those guys in. It’s not worth it to me. In the case of Kawhi, I don’t care how good Rozier ends up being, this team is not better if you swap Kyrie for Leonard. First of all, if it’s a sign and trade situation, you’re bringing on a supermax deal onto your cap. Something that as we just looked at is already pretty tight. Even with Kyrie’s extension, Kawhi will be making considerably more money. I also think the Celts are deep enough at the wing position where I’d rather have the elite level point guard.

Kyrie is basically the whole focus of this team moving forward. As fun as it has been to watch Rozier murder people, we need to understand the big picture. This team doesn’t need Kawhi, and in my opinion they can wait out AD until he hits the market at 27 years old.

What kind of return would you need to see in a trade offer/proposal to be “okay” with never seeing Gordon Hayward play another minute wearing a Celtics jersey? Feel free to take some liberties in packaging other guys from the Celts roster that you see fit. Would love to see your thoughts on this. – Cameron

Hey Cameron,

And that’ll do it for this week. Hopefully this helped you kill some time during period breaks and keep away the Sunday scaries. As always thanks to everyone who wrote in, I’ll see you all next week