The Day Has Finally Arrived. Let's Look At Some Ways The Celtics Can Avoid A Road Dud

Who remembers Game 2? Believe it or not, the season isn’t actually over and there is in fact more basketball to be played. I know it doesn’t feel like that because it’s been about 15 years since we last saw the Celtics take the court but that all ends today. The road has been a bit of a tricky hurdle for the Celts so far this postseason, which is surprising considering how great of a road team they were during the year. They went 28-12 away from home, which you certainly don’t do by accident, and their offensive production was pretty much the same, scoring 100.2 points on the road and 100.7 at home. They made 11.4 3PM a night at home and 11.5 on the road. A similar difference in FTA as well, with 15.8 at home and 16.0 on the road. Their ability to win away from TD Garden is what made them such a good team, so why have things been different in the playoffs?

To make it simple, here an easy way to see how they’ve differed so far

Home: 9-0 / 110.0 points / 47/29% splits / 11.4 3PM / 23.9 FTA / 42.8 rebounds / 23.7 assists / 11.3 TO / 111.9 Ortg 101.1 Drtg

Road: 1-4 / 94.6 points / 41/31% splits / 9.8 3PM / 22.4 FTA / 43.6 rebounds / 18.4 assists / 12.8 TO / 99.9 Ortg 109.3 Drtg

On the surface, this looks like a pretty drastic difference. The offense clearly takes a hit which makes sense, playoff teams tend to defend better on the road (the Celtics are no different). But I really don’t think it’s as simple as the Celtics just stinking on the road. There has to be more to it. To me that record is a bit deceiving, because there were games they lost that they really didn’t play all that poorly. Game 4 and Game 6 against MIL come to mind, as does Game 4 against PHI. Honestly, the only time they really looked like dogshit was in Game 3 against the Bucks when they got their doors blown off.  Taking that into account, maybe the Celts aren’t as bad as we think on the road, which is why I wanted to look back at the games they’ve done well away from home and see if there was anything that could carry over to today. While the teams and the rosters are different, there are things the Celtics can do to take a commanding 3-0 lead in this series, despite playing in CLE.

Stop forgetting about Al Horford

Let me ask you if you think these things are related. On the road so far this playoffs, Al Horford, a player who has been one of your most consistent and efficient offensive weapons, ranks 6th in FGA at 9.4. Look back above and remind yourself about the dip in offensive production between home/road. Not crazy to think the two are related right? Who ranks above him? Well some names you would expect like Tatum/Brown, but then look at the next three: Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart. All good players, but none I would say are exactly efficient offensively. When you compare that to how things are distributed at home, it tells a much different story. In those games Horford takes 12.3 FGA (4th) and only Jaylen, Rozier, Tatum are ahead of that. Much more of an efficient group that is leading the way.

But it’s simple to just say, give Horford the ball more. I wanted to know if there was any clues as to what Brad could do to not just give him the ball more, but where to do it so that he could be successful. This entire playoffs, Al has been nearly unstoppable from the right side

so obviously I would start there. Until Kevin Love proves he can stop Horford, I exploit that matchup early and often. Let Horford catch it clean by the low block, clear out and then watch him turn and face and make the right basketball play. Sort of like this

So far this series we’ve seen Al work a bunch on the left side, but now that he’ll be going to a hostile environment where scoring droughts can’t happen, I’d love to see him move to the other block and unleash some of the punishment we saw in the first two rounds.

Tell Terry Rozier to take a deep breath

When Rozier is at home, he’s a beast, we know this. He plays with a swagger and an energy that is not only contagious, but brings this team to another level. So why is it that whenever he leaves the Garden he forgets to take his game with him? His splits difference is crazy, going from 46.2/45.5% at home to 33.9/24.4% on the road. However, he had a pretty good Game 3 in PHI where he finished with 18/7/3 on 46% shooting. Let’s look there to see if there is anything we can take away. In that game, of his 7 FGM, 4 of them came from 15 ft or closer. The thing with Terry, is in my opinion the biggest reason for his struggles has nothing to do with his skill, but rather his approach. Here’s what I mean.

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At home this playoffs, Rozier has taken a total of 132 FGA. Of that number, 38 came from less than 5ft (28%), and 20 came from outside the restricted but still in the paint (15%). When it came to his outside shooting, while playing at home it’s always been just a bonus rather than a main focus, as 44 FGA have been from deep (33%). It’s clear watching that Rozier is aggressive to help build his confidence, and then goes for the kill shot with his Fuck You Threes.

On the road, it’s a completely different story. Away from home he’s taken 62 FGA this postseason. Of those, just 11 are from 5ft or less (17%), and just 6 are in the non restricted painted area (9%). On the flip side, 33 of his shots are from deep on the road (53%). You see the problem right?  If Brad wants to get Rozier off to a good start, he has to find him actions and plays that get him into the paint early and often. When Rozier comes out and goes like 1-5 to start with 3 3PA, it pretty much sinks his offense for the rest of the night. So far this ECF the Cavs have shown no ability to keep him out of the paint, and as long as they have guys on the floor who can help drag Thompson away from the basket, I want to see P&R after P&R with Rozier so he can have a head of steam as he attacks the rim.

More of this please

It all starts on the defensive end

Look at all the games the Celtics played well on the road win or lose. One thing they have in common is the defense showed up. In those losses MIL scored 104 and 97 points, and PHI scored 103. In their lone road win, the Sixers had just 98 points, and that included an overtime. The defensive energy has been there is essentially every road game other than the first Bucks one, so that’s an encouraging trend.

On the road this playoffs, opponents are averaging 47.5% shooting. When defended by the Celtics, they are averaging 47.1%. Essentially for whatever reason the Celtics haven’t really been making a huge impact in terms of FG% difference. Considering they have a -2.6% differential at home, that helps explain why they are 9-0. So far in this series, the Cavs haven’t been able to break 95 points, but that’s par for the course for them. They average just 99.9 points on the road this playoffs, but that number jumps to 102.7 at home with an Ortg jump of 105.1 to 110.0.

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For the Celtics to keep up their lock down defense, they are going to have to limit their TOs and fast break points. CLE has not proven they can crack your half court offense, and even if Lebron wants to go off for 40 again, we’ve seen that’s not enough.

Play with some fucking energy

One of the most glaring differences with this team is the energy level at which they play depending on where they are. At home, they are active as hell, averaging 11.4 loose ball recoveries, 0.89 charges, and 60.7 contested shots. Would you be shocked if I told you all three of these areas are worse on the road? And the thing is, because these are effort plays, the Celtics have no one to blame but themselves for this slippage. If this team plays with the type of energy we all know they are capable of, they should have no problem. The problem has just been making sure that shows up consistently.

Keep your composure

Guess what, Lebron is going to get calls at home. Things are not going to go your way all the time. We’ve seen this happen to the Celts and they’ve maintained their mental composure, and then we’ve seen them go on the road, have things go against them and get distracted. Mentally they are worried more about the non call or iffy foul than actually playing. Can’t have that today in any capacity.

The Celtics have an opportunity to all but end this ECF today, a very similar situation they faced last round against PHI. We all know how that went. The difference here is you have to do it against Lebron, at home, which historically hasn’t been all that great for you. And while the Celtics record is pretty shitty on the road, I still think everything we’ve seen from them in their last 4 road games should give you a little bit of confidence heading into tonight’s game. The areas they struggle with are fixable, and the energy issue is entirely in their control. The league even threw them a bon and didn’t give them Foster/Brothers, so the Celtics have no excuses. Execute, and you’ll be a win away from the fucking Finals. Insane.